Nacional
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
The two sides are close in strength. Nacional had 6.9 days of rest, Arouca 5.9 and had to travel 1,198 km.
Away travel1,198 kmRest days6.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nacional38%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
Nacional40%
Draw27%
Arouca33%
Nacional38%
Draw28%
Arouca33%
Nacional32%
Draw28%
Arouca40%
Nacional40%
Draw27%
Arouca33%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Ilha da Madeira)
No weather data yet
Referee · PortugalJoao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves
- Cards per match 6.8
- Penalties per match 0.75
- Matches 4
Team strength
Nacional
Arouca
22
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
17
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
15
AttackIn forecast
28
13
DefenceIn forecast
37
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisArouca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NacionalArouca
0.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.60
0.76
xGVia Att/Def
0.53
1.47
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.47
+0.04
Goals minus xGContext
+0.87
60%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
8.80
ShotsContext
9.00
2.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.20
32%
On target shareContext
36%
7.33
Shots in the boxContext
5.40
58%
Box shareContext
55%
9%
ConversionContext
16%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.50
15.40
Shots allowedContext
14.00
5.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.20
4.80
BlocksContext
3.40
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.40
70%
Save rateContext
46%
38%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
239
PassesContext
415
167
Accurate passesContext
351
70%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.72
Team ratingContext
6.53
18.20
FoulsContext
13.60
10.80
Fouls sufferedContext
14.80
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
0.87
xGVia Att/Def
0.84
1.33
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
+0.03
Goals minus xGContext
+0.46
60%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.80
ShotsContext
11.50
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.10
30%
On target shareContext
36%
7.13
Shots in the boxContext
6.80
53%
Box shareContext
57%
8%
ConversionContext
11%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.86
12.50
Shots allowedContext
12.10
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.78
3.50
BlocksContext
3.20
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
57%
Save rateContext
58%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
283
PassesContext
414
213
Accurate passesContext
343
75%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.75
15.00
FoulsContext
14.20
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
2.30
Yellow cardsContext
2.60
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nacional
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km2,390 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
Arouca
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel1,198 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nacional |
Arouca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 13 Sep | 5.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 14 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,198 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,390 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.1 | 9.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nacional
Confirmed XI
37Lucas França(G)
5José Gomes
38Zé Vitor
34Léo Santos
2João Aurélio
6Matheus Dias
11Paulinho Bóia
15C. Labidi
28Liziero
99Pablo Ruan
9J. Ramírez
Arouca
Confirmed XI
1João Valido(G)
44A. Dante
3José Fontán
5B. Popović
28Tiago Esgaio
8David Simão
21T. Fukui
7N. Djouahra
14Lee Hyun-Ju
19A. Trezza
23D. Nandin
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nacional
Absences are shown before kick-off
Arouca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nacional+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Arouca+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nacional · Home
0.00points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.00
Arouca · Away
0.50points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.50
- Conceded
- 3.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Nacional | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| Casa Pia | W 2–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Sporting CP | L 1–4 H | L 0–6 A |
| Rio Ave | D 1–1 A | D 3–3 H |
| Points | 4 of 9 · 1.33 per game | 1 of 9 · 0.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Nacional wins0 draws2 Arouca wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 1 Feb 2025Nacional1–2Arouca
- 25 Aug 2024Arouca1–0Nacional
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nacional | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
| Nacional | Arouca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.80 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.60 | 2.60 | |
| Match goals | 2.40 | 4.00 | 2.51 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 20% | 60% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 40% | |
| Games | 5 | 5 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nacional | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 3.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.00 | 4.00 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 7.60 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 80% 4/5 | 40% 2/5 | |
| Over 9.5 | 80% 4/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 3/5 | 20% 1/5 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.40 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 6.20 | 5.20 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 5/5 | 60% 3/5 | |
| Nacional | Arouca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.78 | 3.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.56 | 4.33 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 7.66 | 9.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 3/9 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.90 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 5.70 | 5.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 90% 9/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joao Antonio Ferreira Goncalves Portugal · 4 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards6.00league 5.00
Red cards0.75league 0.18
Cards 5+75%league 60%
Fouls30.7league 27.5
Penalties0.75league 0.29
Home wins0%league 33%
NacionalNo previous matches with this referee.
AroucaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nacional5 games · scored 4 · conceded 8
1
1
0-15
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
3
76-90
Arouca5 games · scored 7 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
Nacional10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
1
4
0-15
2
16-30
2
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
Arouca10 games · scored 13 · conceded 17
2
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
1
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
