Nacional
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nacional38.4%fair odds 2.61
Draw28.2%fair odds 3.54
Arouca33.4%fair odds 2.99
Expected goals1.31 – 1.20total 2.51
Likeliest score1–113.4%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Arouca
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nacional ↓ · Arouca → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nacional goals, columns Arouca goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.4%7.44
- 1–09.9%10.08
- 0–19.1%11.02
- 0–08.8%11.40
- 2–18.4%11.96
- 1–27.7%13.00
- 2–06.9%14.41
- 0–25.9%17.03
- 2–25.0%19.86
- 3–13.6%27.40
Winning margin
6.2%
Nacional by 3+
fair 16.12
11.4%
Nacional by 2
fair 8.78
20.8%
Nacional by 1
fair 4.81
28.2%
Draw
fair 3.54
19.1%
Arouca by 1
fair 5.24
9.6%
Arouca by 2
fair 10.38
4.7%
Arouca by 3+
fair 21.34
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Nacional goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
Arouca goals
30%0
36%1
22%2
9%3
3%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional win | 38.4% | 39.7% | -1.3 pp |
| Draw | 28.2% | 27.2% | +1.1 pp |
| Arouca win | 33.4% | 33.1% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 50.1% | -4.1 pp |
| Both teams score | 51.8% | 55.0% | -3.2 pp |
| Expected goals Nacional | 1.31 | 1.41 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Arouca | 1.20 | 1.27 | -0.06 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nacional win38.4%2.61
- Draw28.2%3.54
- Arouca win33.4%2.99
- Double chance Nacional or draw66.6%1.50
- Double chance Nacional or Arouca71.8%1.39
- Double chance Arouca or draw61.6%1.62
- Draw no bet Nacional53.5%1.87
- Draw no bet Arouca46.5%2.15
Goals
- Over 0.591.2%1.10
- Over 1.572.2%1.38
- Over 2.546.0%2.17
- Over 3.524.5%4.07
- Over 4.511.1%9.03
- Under 1.527.8%3.60
- Under 2.554.0%1.85
- Under 3.575.5%1.33
Both teams to score
- Yes51.8%1.93
- No48.2%2.07
- Yes and over 2.538.4%2.61
- Nacional win and yes17.2%5.82
- Draw and yes19.5%5.14
- Arouca win and yes15.2%6.59
Team goals
- Nacional over 0.573.0%1.37
- Nacional over 1.537.7%2.66
- Nacional over 2.514.5%6.89
- Arouca over 0.570.0%1.43
- Arouca over 1.533.9%2.95
- Arouca over 2.512.2%8.23
- Nacional clean sheet30.0%3.34
- Arouca clean sheet27.0%3.70
- Nacional win to nil21.2%4.71
- Arouca win to nil18.2%5.49
Handicap
- Nacional −1.517.6%5.68
- Nacional −2.56.2%16.12
- Arouca +1.582.4%1.21
- Arouca +2.593.8%1.07
- Arouca −1.514.3%6.98
- Nacional +1.585.7%1.17
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Primeira Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored45
Favourite won57.8%
Avg chance given to result43.1%
1X2 Brier0.560
Over 2.5 called right66.7%
BTTS called right51.1%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 5 | 37.2% | 40.0% |
| 40–50% | 15 | 45.8% | 46.7% |
| 50–60% | 13 | 54.2% | 61.5% |
| 60–70% | 6 | 66.9% | 83.3% |
| 70–80% | 5 | 75.3% | 60.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.6% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 16 of 45 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5649 | 0.5452 |
| Avg chance given to result | 43.2% | 44.6% |
| Favourite won | 62.5% | 62.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 16 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 45 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.