Nacional vs Guimaraes – 16 May 2026

Primeira Liga Gameweek 34 Sat, May 16 · 18:00 Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira

Nacional 14th · 31 pts · 33 played LWWLL

2–0Full time

Guimaraes 8th · 42 pts · 33 played DWWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Guimaraes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 21). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nacional. Nacional had 4.9 days of rest, Guimaraes 4.9 and had to travel 1,237 km.

Away travel1,237 kmRest days4.9 · 4.9Matches / 14d1 · 2

Nacional36%

Draw28%

Guimaraes37%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.31

Nacional34%

Draw27%

Guimaraes39%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.39

Nacional36%

Draw28%

Guimaraes37%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.31

Nacional29%

Draw27%

Guimaraes44%

Expected goals 1.15 – 1.46

Nacional36%

Draw27%

Guimaraes37%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.35

Over 2.5 48% Both score 53% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Ilha da Madeira)

No weather data yet

Referee · PortugalRicardo Baixinho

Cards per match 7.0
Penalties per match 0.34
Matches 38

Team strength

Nacional

Guimaraes

21 L90 StrengthIn forecast 34

17 Current StrengthIn forecast 27

15 AttackIn forecast 28

13 DefenceIn forecast 39

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nacional

Attack—

Defense risk—

Guimaraes

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nacional

Guimaraes

1.06 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.18

1.36 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.48

1.05 xGVia Att/Def 1.19

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

+0.01 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

67% Scored inContext 67%

21% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.21 ShotsContext 13.00

4.18 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.88

34% On target shareContext 30%

7.42 Shots in the boxContext 7.24

57% Box shareContext 56%

9% ConversionContext 9%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.14

14.12 Shots allowedContext 10.88

4.39 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.48

4.15 BlocksContext 2.93

3.19 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.09

70% Save rateContext 69%

46% PossessionIn forecast 51%

327 PassesContext 386

253 Accurate passesContext 317

77% Pass accuracyContext 82%

6.78 Team ratingContext 6.75

14.18 FoulsContext 14.12

11.58 Fouls sufferedContext 14.67

2.73 Yellow cardsContext 2.27

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.06

This league season, per match · 33 and 33 games

0.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

0.73 xGVia Att/Def 1.21

1.52 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.34

+0.07 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

60% Scored inContext 70%

30% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.90 ShotsContext 13.10

4.70 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.30

36% On target shareContext 33%

6.80 Shots in the boxContext 7.40

50% Box shareContext 57%

6% ConversionContext 9%

1.67 OffsidesContext 2.22

14.30 Shots allowedContext 9.80

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.40

4.50 BlocksContext 2.56

3.22 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.00

76% Save rateContext 68%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

366 PassesContext 425

290 Accurate passesContext 353

79% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.71

13.80 FoulsContext 13.70

12.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.30

2.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.80

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nacional

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km1,927 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Guimaraes

Rest4.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,237 km622 km in 14d

Schedule load12%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nacional	Guimaraes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May	4.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 11 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,237 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	1,927 km	622 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	86.1	84

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nacional Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1Kaique(G)

5José Gomes 38Zé Vitor 34Léo Santos 16Alan Nuñez

15C. Labidi 6Matheus Dias 22Filipe Soares

11Paulinho Bóia 9J. Ramírez 7Witi

Guimaraes Confirmed XI

4-1-4-1

27Charles(G)

82Francisco Dias 26R. Abascal 28Thiago Balieiro 2Miguel Maga

80Rica Rocha

19O. Camara 20Samu 30Gonçalo Nogueira 18Telmo Arcanjo

11Gustavo Silva

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nacional Absences are shown before kick-off

Guimaraes Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nacional+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Guimaraes+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Nacional · Home 1.06points per game · 16 home games

W-D-L: 5-2-9
Scored: 1.31
Conceded: 1.44

Guimaraes · Away 0.88points per game · 16 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-10
Scored: 0.81
Conceded: 1.88

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nacional	Guimaraes
Santa Clara	L 0–2 AD 3–3 H	L 0–2 AW 2–1 H
AVS	L 1–2 HD 2–2 A	D 1–1 AW 4–0 H
Tondela	W 2–0 AW 3–1 H	W 5–0 HW 1–0 A
Alverca	W 1–0 HL 0–1 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Benfica	L 0–2 AL 1–2 H	L 0–3 AL 0–3 H
Estrela	W 2–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Famalicao	L 0–1 AL 0–1 H	L 1–2 HL 0–2 A
Estoril	L 0–1 HD 1–1 A	L 2–4 AW 3–2 H
Moreirense	D 1–1 AW 3–2 H	W 1–0 HL 0–2 A
SC Braga	L 1–2 HW 1–0 A	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
Arouca	L 0–3 AL 1–2 H	L 2–3 AD 1–1 H
FC Porto	L 0–1 HL 0–1 A	L 0–1 HL 0–3 A
Casa Pia	D 0–0 HW 2–0 A	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Sporting CP	L 1–2 AL 1–4 H	L 1–5 AL 1–4 H
Rio Ave	W 4–0 HD 1–1 A	W 2–0 HW 1–0 A
GIL Vicente	L 1–2 AL 0–2 H	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Points	31 of 96 · 0.97 per game	39 of 96 · 1.22 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings

0 Nacional wins1 draws2 Guimaraes wins

Goals per game1.33 – 2.00 Over 2.5100% Both scored100% Clean sheets0% · 0%

2 Jan 2026Guimaraes2–1Nacional
3 May 2025Nacional1–2Guimaraes
23 Dec 2024Guimaraes2–2Nacional

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nacional	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.06	1.18
Conceded per game	1.36	1.48
Match goals	2.42	2.67	2.59
Over 1.5	73%	76%
Over 2.5	42%	45%	48%
Over 3.5	18%	24%
Both teams scored	48%	42%	53%
Clean sheets	21%	30%
Failed to score	33%	33%
Games	33	33

	Nacional	Guimaraes	Forecast
Scored per game	0.80	1.20
Conceded per game	1.10	1.50
Match goals	1.90	2.70	2.59
Over 1.5	70%	80%
Over 2.5	20%	40%	48%
Over 3.5	0%	20%
Both teams scored	30%	40%	53%
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Failed to score	40%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nacional	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.47	4.48
Corners conceded	6.03	3.55
Match total	10.50	8.03	9.38
Over 8.5	72% 23/32	45% 14/31
Over 9.5	69% 22/32	35% 11/31
Over 10.5	53% 17/32	19% 6/31
Cards
Cards	2.94	2.36
Opponent cards	2.39	2.64
Match total	5.33	5.00	5.06
Over 3.5	70% 23/33	64% 21/33
Over 4.5	67% 22/33	61% 20/33

	Nacional	Guimaraes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.90	4.44
Corners conceded	6.40	4.11
Match total	11.30	8.55	9.38
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	80% 8/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	60% 6/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	3.00	1.80
Opponent cards	2.30	1.80
Match total	5.30	3.60	5.06
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Ricardo Baixinho Portugal · 38 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.45league 4.79

Red cards0.50league 0.24

Cards 5+76%league 57%

Fouls30.7league 26.7

Penalties0.34league 0.43

Home wins42%league 41%

Nacional2 with this referee

Record1-0-1 Cards · opp.4.5 · 3.5 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds1

L1 Feb 26A · Sporting CP1–23
W15 Dec 25H · Tondela3–16

Guimaraes3 with this referee

Record1-0-2 Cards · opp.5.0 · 3.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W11 Apr 25A · GIL Vicente1–06
L4 May 24A · Rio Ave1–26
L21 Aug 22A · Portimonense1–23

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.