Nantes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Lens were slight favourites.
Lens were the stronger side on L90 Strength (55 vs 21). Nantes had 5.8 days of rest, Lens 6 and had to travel 480 km.
Away travel480 kmRest days5.8 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nantes23%
Draw26%
Lens51%
Nantes23%
Draw25%
Lens51%
Nantes23%
Draw26%
Lens51%
Nantes18%
Draw24%
Lens59%
Nantes23%
Draw25%
Lens51%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nantes)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceBenoît Bastien
- Cards per match 4.5
- Penalties per match 0.40
- Matches 111
Team strength
Nantes
Lens
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
55
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
56
24
AttackIn forecast
63
45
DefenceIn forecast
53
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLens
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NantesLens
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.86
0.75
xGVia Att/Def
1.74
1.57
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.39
+0.11
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
50%
Scored inContext
71%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
9.43
ShotsContext
13.07
2.75
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.00
25%
On target shareContext
38%
5.57
Shots in the boxContext
9.71
58%
Box shareContext
74%
9%
ConversionContext
13%
1.56
OffsidesContext
2.73
15.43
Shots allowedContext
12.71
4.86
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.64
4.67
BlocksContext
4.69
3.36
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.71
69%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
353
PassesContext
434
282
Accurate passesContext
366
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.74
Team ratingContext
7.03
11.21
FoulsContext
12.79
12.93
Fouls sufferedContext
12.07
1.71
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.70
0.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.72
1.69
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
60%
Scored inContext
80%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
10.00
ShotsContext
11.90
2.78
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.90
25%
On target shareContext
41%
6.10
Shots in the boxContext
9.00
62%
Box shareContext
77%
11%
ConversionContext
16%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.00
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
4.25
BlocksContext
5.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
63%
Save rateContext
77%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
348
PassesContext
432
279
Accurate passesContext
363
80%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.71
Team ratingContext
7.05
11.60
FoulsContext
13.50
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nantes
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,047 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lens
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel480 km823 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nantes |
Lens |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 6Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 480 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,047 km | 823 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.2 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nantes
Confirmed XI
1A. Lopes(G)
3N. Cozza
78Tylel Tati
6C. Awaziem
98K. Amian
52Bahmed Deuff
5H. Kwon
8J. Lepenant
11B. Guirassy
19Y. El-Arabi
10M. Abline
Lens
Confirmed XI
40R. Risser(G)
20M. Sarr
6S. Baidoo
25P. Ganiou
14M. Udol
5A. Bulatović
8M. Sangaré
2R. Aguilar
22W. Saïd
10F. Thauvin
11O. Édouard
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nantes
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lens
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nantes+0.2 pp
- Draw-0.1 pp
- Lens-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Nantes · Home
0.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.86
Lens · Away
1.86points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.43
- Conceded
- 1.14
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Nantes | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| Lyon | L 0–3 A | L 0–1 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 H | W 3–0 H |
| LE Havre | D 1–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Metz | L 0–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Monaco | L 3–5 H | W 4–1 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | W 3–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | D 0–0 A | W 3–1 H |
| Rennes | D 2–2 H | D 0–0 A |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Strasbourg | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 10 of 36 · 0.83 per game | 25 of 36 · 2.08 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Nantes wins2 draws4 Lens wins
Goals per game1.38 – 2.00
Over 2.575%
Both scored63%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 23 Feb 2025Nantes3–1Lens
- 9 Nov 2024Lens3–2Nantes
- 3 Feb 2024Nantes0–1Lens
- 28 Oct 2023Lens4–0Nantes
- 19 Feb 2023Lens3–1Nantes
- 18 Sep 2022Nantes0–0Lens
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nantes | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match goals | 2.43 | 2.57 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 29% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Nantes | Lens | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.90 | 0.70 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.60 | 2.68 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nantes | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 6.23 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.23 | 4.54 | |
| Match total | 9.61 | 10.77 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 69% 9/13 | 69% 9/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 62% 8/13 | 62% 8/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 54% 7/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.79 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.29 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 4.08 | 4.71 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 64% 9/14 | 79% 11/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 36% 5/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Nantes | Lens | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.22 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.67 | 4.60 | |
| Match total | 8.89 | 9.70 | 9.33 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.40 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 4.90 | 4.10 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Benoît Bastien France · 111 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.24league 3.74
Red cards0.23league 0.32
Cards 5+48%league 37%
Fouls24.7league 24.1
Penalties0.40league 0.48
Home wins51%league 51%
Nantes7 with this referee
Record1-3-3
Cards · opp.1.9 · 1.6
Pens for · against0 · 2
- D27 Sep 25A · Toulouse2–23
- L17 Aug 25H · Paris Saint Germain0–11
- D26 Jan 25H · Lyon1–13
- L20 Dec 23A · Lyon0–12
- L7 May 23H · Strasbourg0–23
Lens10 with this referee
Record6-2-2
Cards · opp.2.2 · 2.9
Pens for · against3 · 2
- L26 Oct 24H · Lille0–24
- W20 Apr 24H · Clermont Foot1–01
- L16 Mar 24H · Nice1–34
- W12 Nov 23H · Marseille1–02
- D5 Feb 23A · Stade Brestois 291–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nantes14 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
3
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
4
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Lens14 games · scored 24 · conceded 12
3
1
0-15
4
3
16-30
5
3
31-45
4
1
46-60
3
1
61-75
5
3
76-90
Nantes10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
2
3
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
3
31-45
3
46-60
2
3
61-75
3
6
76-90
Lens10 games · scored 19 · conceded 7
2
0-15
4
2
16-30
4
1
31-45
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
3
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
