Napoli vs AC Milan – 6 Apr 2026

Serie A Gameweek 31 Mon, Apr 6 · 19:45 Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Napoli

Napoli 3rd · 62 pts · 30 played LWWWW

1–0Full time

AC Milan 2nd · 63 pts · 30 played LWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Napoli were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Napoli. Napoli had 17.1 days of rest, AC Milan 16.1 and had to travel 658 km.

Away travel658 kmRest days17.1 · 16.1Matches / 14d0 · 0

Napoli41%

Draw28%

AC Milan30%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.11

Napoli42%

Draw27%

AC Milan31%

Expected goals 1.46 – 1.22

Napoli42%

Draw29%

AC Milan29%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.06

Napoli34%

Draw29%

AC Milan37%

Expected goals 1.19 – 1.24

Napoli41%

Draw28%

AC Milan31%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.17

Over 2.5 44% Both score 50% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Napoli)

No weather data yet

Referee · ItalyDaniele Doveri

Cards per match 3.5
Penalties per match 0.21
Matches 80

Team strength

Napoli

AC Milan

71 L90 StrengthIn forecast 73

61 Current StrengthIn forecast 66

61 AttackIn forecast 72

70 DefenceIn forecast 69

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Napoli

Attack—

Defense risk—

AC Milan

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Napoli

AC Milan

1.53 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.77

1.32 xGVia Att/Def 1.58

0.96 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.05

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext -0.01

80% Scored inContext 90%

33% Clean sheetsContext 43%

12.70 ShotsContext 13.27

4.93 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.57

38% On target shareContext 34%

8.03 Shots in the boxContext 9.39

62% Box shareContext 69%

12% ConversionContext 12%

1.60 OffsidesContext 2.11

10.50 Shots allowedContext 10.87

3.07 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.64

3.14 BlocksContext 3.36

2.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.07

67% Save rateContext 83%

58% PossessionIn forecast 53%

538 PassesContext 487

465 Accurate passesContext 428

86% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.86 Team ratingContext 7.01

11.93 FoulsContext 9.87

12.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.33

1.40 Yellow cardsContext 1.57

0.07 Red cardsContext 0.10

This league season, per match · 30 and 30 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.23 xGVia Att/Def 1.60

1.00 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.07

+0.47 Goals minus xGContext -0.20

90% Scored inContext 80%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.10 ShotsContext 12.80

5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.40

41% On target shareContext 34%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.88

58% Box shareContext 72%

14% ConversionContext 11%

1.38 OffsidesContext 2.50

10.20 Shots allowedContext 10.60

4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

2.56 BlocksContext 3.22

2.38 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

56% Save rateContext 81%

59% PossessionIn forecast 55%

551 PassesContext 525

478 Accurate passesContext 466

87% Pass accuracyContext 89%

6.84 Team ratingContext 7.05

12.80 FoulsContext 10.60

12.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.50

1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Napoli

Rest17.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AC Milan

Rest16.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel658 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Napoli	AC Milan
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	17.1Serie A 2025-2026, 20 Mar	16.1Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Mar
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	658 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 2	0 / 0 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	5.8	4.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Napoli Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

32V. Milinković-Savić(G)

17M. Olivera 4A. Buongiorno 5Juan Jesus

37L. Spinazzola 68S. Lobotka 99F. Anguissa 3Miguel Gutiérrez

8S. McTominay 11K. De Bruyne

23Giovane

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

AC Milan Confirmed XI

3-5-2

16M. Maignan(G)

31S. Pavlović 5K. De Winter 23O. Tomori

33D. Bartesaghi 12A. Rabiot 14L. Modrić 19Y. Fofana 56A. Saelemaekers

18C. Nkunku 9N. Füllkrug

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Napoli Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

AC Milan Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Napoli-0.9 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
AC Milan+1.1 pp

Home / Away this season

Napoli · Home 2.43points per game · 14 home games

W-D-L: 10-4-0
Scored: 1.79
Conceded: 0.93

AC Milan · Away 2.13points per game · 15 away games

W-D-L: 9-5-1
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Napoli	AC Milan
Cagliari	W 1–0 AW 1–0 H	W 1–0 A
Lecce	W 2–1 HW 1–0 A	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A
Torino	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	W 3–2 HW 3–2 A
Verona	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 H
Atalanta	L 1–2 AW 3–1 H	D 1–1 A
AS Roma	D 2–2 HW 1–0 A	D 1–1 AW 1–0 H
Genoa	W 3–2 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 H
Fiorentina	W 2–1 HW 3–1 A	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Juventus	L 0–3 AW 2–1 H	D 0–0 A
Sassuolo	W 1–0 HW 2–0 A	D 2–2 H
Parma	D 0–0 H	L 0–1 HD 2–2 A
Inter	D 2–2 AW 3–1 H	W 1–0 HW 1–0 A
Lazio	W 2–0 A	L 0–1 AW 1–0 H
Cremonese	W 2–0 A	W 2–0 AL 1–2 H
Udinese	L 0–1 A	W 3–0 A
Bologna	L 0–2 A	W 3–0 AW 1–0 H
Como	D 0–0 H	D 1–1 HW 3–1 A
Pisa	W 3–2 H	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H
Points	62 of 87 · 2.14 per game	60 of 87 · 2.07 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

4 Napoli wins1 draws4 AC Milan wins

Goals per game1.11 – 1.33 Over 2.556% Both scored44% Clean sheets22% · 33%

28 Sep 2025AC Milan2–1Napoli
30 Mar 2025Napoli2–1AC Milan
29 Oct 2024AC Milan0–2Napoli
11 Feb 2024AC Milan1–0Napoli
29 Oct 2023Napoli2–2AC Milan
2 Apr 2023Napoli0–4AC Milan

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Napoli	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.53	1.57
Conceded per game	1.00	0.77
Match goals	2.53	2.33	2.45
Over 1.5	70%	67%
Over 2.5	57%	43%	44%
Over 3.5	27%	20%
Both teams scored	53%	50%	50%
Clean sheets	33%	43%
Failed to score	20%	10%
Games	30	30

	Napoli	AC Milan	Forecast
Scored per game	1.60	1.40
Conceded per game	1.30	0.70
Match goals	2.90	2.10	2.45
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	30%	44%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	70%	40%	50%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	10%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Napoli	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.86	4.78
Corners conceded	3.00	4.33
Match total	7.86	9.11	8.67
Over 8.5	29% 8/28	59% 16/27
Over 9.5	21% 6/28	41% 11/27
Over 10.5	21% 6/28	33% 9/27
Cards
Cards	1.50	1.70
Opponent cards	2.00	2.07
Match total	3.50	3.77	3.91
Over 3.5	40% 12/30	57% 17/30
Over 4.5	17% 5/30	30% 9/30

	Napoli	AC Milan	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.78
Corners conceded	3.00	3.56
Match total	7.50	8.34	8.67
Over 8.5	20% 2/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	20% 2/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	20% 2/10	22% 2/9
Cards
Cards	1.80	1.90
Opponent cards	1.70	1.90
Match total	3.50	3.80	3.91
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Daniele Doveri Italy · 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.73

Red cards0.20league 0.19

Cards 5+26%league 36%

Fouls24.8league 25.1

Penalties0.21league 0.30

Home wins24%league 39%

Napoli11 with this referee

Record4-5-2 Cards · opp.1.1 · 1.7 Pens for · against1 · 2 Reds2

D11 Jan 26A · Inter2–22
D18 May 25A · Parma0–04
D1 Mar 25H · Inter1–11
W14 Dec 24A · Udinese3–11
L3 Nov 24H · Atalanta0–31

AC Milan13 with this referee

Record6-5-2 Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 1

W8 Mar 26H · Inter1–02
D28 Oct 25A · Atalanta1–13
W20 Sep 25A · Udinese3–00
W8 Mar 25A · Lecce3–21
W11 Feb 24H · Napoli1–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.