Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were slight favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 47). Absences weigh more on Napoli. Napoli had 4 days of rest, Como 3 and had to travel 692 km.
Away travel692 kmRest days4 · 3Matches / 14d2 · 3
Napoli58%
Draw24%
Como18%
Napoli60%
Draw23%
Como17%
Napoli59%
Draw24%
Como17%
Napoli51%
Draw26%
Como23%
Napoli59%
Draw23%
Como18%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyLuca Zufferli
- Cards per match 2.9
- Penalties per match 0.24
- Matches 29
Team strength
Napoli
Como
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
65
61
AttackIn forecast
72
70
DefenceIn forecast
67
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisComo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliComo
1.78
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.33
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.96
+0.18
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
89%
Scored inContext
78%
33%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
15.11
ShotsContext
13.44
5.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.56
35%
On target shareContext
34%
10.11
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
67%
Box shareContext
58%
12%
ConversionContext
10%
1.60
OffsidesContext
1.60
10.78
Shots allowedContext
10.78
2.56
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.33
2.89
BlocksContext
4.00
1.88
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.63
68%
Save rateContext
72%
60%
PossessionIn forecast
60%
544
PassesContext
481
476
Accurate passesContext
414
88%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.91
13.00
FoulsContext
14.89
12.22
Fouls sufferedContext
13.67
1.11
Yellow cardsContext
2.33
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.22
1.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.80
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.22
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.00
+0.27
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.80
ShotsContext
13.90
4.40
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
34%
On target shareContext
32%
9.11
Shots in the boxContext
8.20
64%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
9%
1.14
OffsidesContext
1.60
12.80
Shots allowedContext
10.80
3.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.70
3.70
BlocksContext
3.67
2.44
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.78
60%
Save rateContext
69%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
58%
481
PassesContext
477
415
Accurate passesContext
411
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.77
Team ratingContext
6.90
11.30
FoulsContext
14.40
10.50
Fouls sufferedContext
13.20
0.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.30
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km668 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Como
Rest3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel692 km297 km in 14d
Schedule load29%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Como |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 29 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4Serie A 2025-2026, 28 Oct | 3Serie A 2025-2026, 29 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 692 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 668 km | 297 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.9 | 6.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
37L. Spinazzola
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
8S. McTominay
6B. Gilmour
99F. Anguissa
7David Neres
19R. Højlund
21M. Politano
Como
Confirmed XI
1J. Butez(G)
3Álex Valle
2M. Kempf
14Jacobo Ramón
28I. Smolčić
6M. Caqueret
23M. Perrone
38Assane Diao
10N. Paz
42J. Addai
7Álvaro Morata
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Como
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.3 pp
- Como+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
3.00points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-0-0
- Scored
- 2.25
- Conceded
- 1.00
Como · Away
1.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 0.75
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Como |
|---|---|---|
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 6 of 6 · 3.00 per game | 4 of 6 · 2.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Napoli wins0 draws1 Como wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.50
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 23 Feb 2025Como2–1Napoli
- 4 Oct 2024Napoli3–1Como
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 22% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
| Napoli | Como | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.78 | 1.33 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.67 | 2.00 | 2.74 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 78% | |
| Over 2.5 | 56% | 22% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 33% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 56% | 56% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 33% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 11% | 22% | |
| Games | 9 | 9 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.25 | 3.57 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.38 | 3.57 | |
| Match total | 8.63 | 7.14 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.11 | 2.56 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.78 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 2.89 | 4.89 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 3/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 4.5 | 0% 0/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Napoli | Como | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 3.25 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.00 | 3.63 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 6.88 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 25% 2/8 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 5/10 | 13% 1/8 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.10 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 2.40 | |
| Match total | 2.70 | 4.90 | 4.05 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Luca Zufferli Italy · 29 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.83league 3.95
Red cards0.10league 0.12
Cards 5+28%league 38%
Fouls24.0league 25.9
Penalties0.24league 0.29
Home wins59%league 38%
Napoli2 with this referee
Record2-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 0.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W13 Sep 25A · Fiorentina3–10
- W12 Jan 25H · Verona2–00
Como1 with this referee
Record0-1-0
Cards · opp.3.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D4 Oct 25A · Atalanta1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli9 games · scored 16 · conceded 8
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
61-75
2
2
76-90
Como8 games · scored 10 · conceded 5
3
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
31-45
1
1
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 17 · conceded 17
2
1
0-15
16-30
4
5
31-45
4
4
46-60
4
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
Como9 games · scored 10 · conceded 7
3
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
31-45
1
2
46-60
2
1
61-75
2
1
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
