Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 24). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Lecce. Napoli had 7.9 days of rest, Lecce 6.2 and had to travel 334 km.
Away travel334 kmRest days7.9 · 6.2Matches / 14d2 · 1
Napoli65%
Draw22%
Lecce13%
Napoli72%
Draw18%
Lecce10%
Napoli67%
Draw22%
Lecce12%
Napoli58%
Draw25%
Lecce17%
Napoli66%
Draw21%
Lecce13%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 44%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyRosario Abisso
- Cards per match 4.6
- Penalties per match 0.34
- Matches 50
Team strength
Napoli
Lecce
70
L90 StrengthIn forecast
24
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
61
AttackIn forecast
36
70
DefenceIn forecast
30
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisLecce
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliLecce
1.54
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.71
1.04
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.32
1.30
xGVia Att/Def
0.76
0.99
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.44
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.05
79%
Scored inContext
50%
32%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
12.57
ShotsContext
9.57
4.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.60
38%
On target shareContext
24%
8.07
Shots in the boxContext
5.44
63%
Box shareContext
54%
12%
ConversionContext
8%
1.58
OffsidesContext
1.63
10.61
Shots allowedContext
12.68
3.11
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.54
3.11
BlocksContext
3.50
2.25
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.24
68%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
531
PassesContext
327
458
Accurate passesContext
247
86%
Pass accuracyContext
76%
6.86
Team ratingContext
6.73
11.82
FoulsContext
12.43
12.96
Fouls sufferedContext
14.07
1.43
Yellow cardsContext
1.64
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.13
xGVia Att/Def
0.75
1.13
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.47
Goals minus xGContext
+0.05
90%
Scored inContext
50%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.20
ShotsContext
9.50
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.50
41%
On target shareContext
21%
7.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.67
59%
Box shareContext
52%
13%
ConversionContext
8%
1.38
OffsidesContext
2.17
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.56
3.00
BlocksContext
3.50
2.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.63
63%
Save rateContext
73%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
542
PassesContext
307
470
Accurate passesContext
226
87%
Pass accuracyContext
74%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.73
12.60
FoulsContext
12.90
13.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.00
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.20
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,150 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Lecce
Rest6.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel334 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Lecce |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Serie A 2025-2026, 6 Mar | 6.2Serie A 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 334 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,150 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
1A. Meret(G)
17M. Olivera
4A. Buongiorno
31S. Beukema
37L. Spinazzola
6B. Gilmour
99F. Anguissa
21M. Politano
27Alisson Santos
20E. Elmas
19R. Højlund
Lecce
Confirmed XI
30W. Falcone(G)
25A. Gallo
44Tiago Gabriel
5J. Siebert
17Danilo Veiga
79Oumar Ngom
20Y. Ramadani
19L. Banda
29L. Coulibaly
50S. Pierotti
9N. Štulić
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Scores -0.05 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Lecce
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli-1.8 pp
- Draw+0.6 pp
- Lecce+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.38points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 9-4-0
- Scored
- 1.77
- Conceded
- 0.92
Lecce · Away
0.85points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-2-8
- Scored
- 0.69
- Conceded
- 1.38
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Lecce |
|---|---|---|
| Torino | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H | D 0–0 H |
| Atalanta | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| AS Roma | D 2–2 HW 1–0 A | L 0–2 H |
| Genoa | W 3–2 AW 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 2–1 HW 3–1 A | W 1–0 A |
| Juventus | L 0–3 AW 2–1 H | D 1–1 A |
| Sassuolo | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A | D 0–0 H |
| Parma | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 HW 1–0 A |
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 HL 0–2 A |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 A | W 2–1 HL 0–2 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Bologna | L 0–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 1–3 AL 0–3 H |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | L 0–1 AL 0–2 H |
| Pisa | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 H | W 2–0 AL 1–2 H |
| Points | 53 of 81 · 1.96 per game | 27 of 81 · 1.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Napoli wins2 draws0 Lecce wins
Goals per game1.43 – 0.29
Over 2.529%
Both scored29%
Clean sheets71% · 14%
- 28 Oct 2025Lecce0–1Napoli
- 3 May 2025Lecce0–1Napoli
- 26 Oct 2024Napoli1–0Lecce
- 26 May 2024Napoli0–0Lecce
- 30 Sep 2023Lecce0–4Napoli
- 7 Apr 2023Lecce1–2Napoli
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.54 | 0.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.04 | 1.32 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.04 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 71% | 61% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 36% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 29% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 54% | 36% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 32% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 50% | |
| Games | 28 | 28 |
| Napoli | Lecce | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.00 | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 60% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 40% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% | 44% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.73 | 4.26 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.92 | 5.37 | |
| Match total | 7.65 | 9.63 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 27% 7/26 | 74% 20/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 19% 5/26 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 19% 5/26 | 41% 11/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.54 | 1.71 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.04 | 1.54 | |
| Match total | 3.58 | 3.25 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 39% 11/28 | 43% 12/28 | |
| Over 4.5 | 18% 5/28 | 25% 7/28 | |
| Napoli | Lecce | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.70 | 5.89 | |
| Match total | 7.50 | 8.89 | 8.74 |
| Over 8.5 | 30% 3/10 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 2.70 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 10% 1/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Rosario Abisso Italy · 50 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.30league 3.76
Red cards0.30league 0.18
Cards 5+50%league 35%
Fouls24.9league 25.1
Penalties0.34league 0.30
Home wins28%league 39%
Napoli5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.4
Pens for · against3 · 0
- W20 Oct 24A · Empoli1–02
- W21 Oct 23A · Verona3–12
- D4 May 23A · Udinese1–10
- W8 Jan 23A · Sampdoria2–02
- W9 Oct 22A · Cremonese4–10
Lecce3 with this referee
Record0-2-1
Cards · opp.2.7 · 4.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- D8 Nov 25H · Verona0–01
- D11 Nov 23H · AC Milan2–24
- L19 Mar 23A · Fiorentina0–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli28 games · scored 43 · conceded 29
9
4
0-15
6
3
16-30
8
3
31-45
7
7
46-60
5
6
61-75
8
6
76-90
Lecce28 games · scored 20 · conceded 37
5
1
0-15
4
6
16-30
3
6
31-45
1
5
46-60
2
12
61-75
5
7
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 16
4
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
5
61-75
3
5
76-90
Lecce10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
