Napoli
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Napoli were clear favourites.
Napoli were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 31). Napoli usually keep the ball (56% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Napoli had 2.9 days of rest, Parma 3.3 and had to travel 544 km.
Away travel544 kmRest days2.9 · 3.3Matches / 14d3 · 3
Napoli69%
Draw20%
Parma11%
Napoli70%
Draw19%
Parma11%
Napoli69%
Draw20%
Parma11%
Napoli62%
Draw23%
Parma15%
Napoli70%
Draw19%
Parma11%
Over 2.5 53%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Napoli)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMichael Fabbri
- Cards per match 4.4
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 64
Team strength
Napoli
Parma
73
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
61
Current StrengthIn forecast
28
61
AttackIn forecast
20
70
DefenceIn forecast
33
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisParma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NapoliParma
1.58
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.74
0.89
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.16
1.37
xGVia Att/Def
0.96
1.04
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.22
79%
Scored inContext
53%
37%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
12.79
ShotsContext
10.95
4.94
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.24
37%
On target shareContext
26%
8.37
Shots in the boxContext
6.78
64%
Box shareContext
60%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
1.75
OffsidesContext
1.57
10.47
Shots allowedContext
14.26
2.78
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.16
3.06
BlocksContext
4.17
2.06
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.17
69%
Save rateContext
73%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
522
PassesContext
339
450
Accurate passesContext
266
86%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.78
11.74
FoulsContext
10.42
12.95
Fouls sufferedContext
14.05
1.37
Yellow cardsContext
1.58
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.05
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.00
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.02
0.94
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.51
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.02
80%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
11.50
ShotsContext
12.30
4.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.33
37%
On target shareContext
24%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
72%
Box shareContext
61%
14%
ConversionContext
8%
1.67
OffsidesContext
1.50
10.10
Shots allowedContext
15.30
3.22
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.00
3.11
BlocksContext
4.33
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
71%
Save rateContext
69%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
517
PassesContext
352
441
Accurate passesContext
280
85%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.89
Team ratingContext
6.81
11.40
FoulsContext
10.00
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
14.90
1.40
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.20
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Napoli
Rest2.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km1,688 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Parma
Rest3.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel544 km1,673 km in 14d
Schedule load34%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Napoli |
Parma |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 28 | Moderate · 34 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.9Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan | 3.3Serie A 2025-2026, 11 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 544 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,688 km | 1,673 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 3 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 3 | 3.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Napoli
Confirmed XI
32V. Milinković-Savić(G)
4A. Buongiorno
13A. Rrahmani
22G. Di Lorenzo
17M. Olivera
8S. McTominay
68S. Lobotka
30P. Mazzocchi
70N. Lang
21M. Politano
19R. Højlund
Parma
Confirmed XI
66F. Rinaldi(G)
5L. Valenti
37Mariano Troilo
39A. Circati
22O. Sørensen
24C. Ordoñez
8N. Estévez
16L. Keita
27Sascha Britschgi
32P. Cutrone
17J. Ondrejka
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Napoli
Absences are shown before kick-off
Parma
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Napoli+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Parma+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Napoli · Home
2.50points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Parma · Away
1.33points per game · 9 away games
- W-D-L
- 3-3-3
- Scored
- 0.78
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Napoli | Parma |
|---|---|---|
| Inter | D 2–2 AW 3–1 H | L 0–2 H |
| Verona | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 A |
| Lazio | W 2–0 A | L 0–1 H |
| Cremonese | W 2–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–1 A | L 0–2 H |
| Juventus | W 2–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| AS Roma | W 1–0 A | L 1–2 A |
| Atalanta | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Bologna | L 0–2 A | L 1–3 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Lecce | W 1–0 A | W 2–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Torino | L 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Genoa | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| AC Milan | L 1–2 A | D 2–2 H |
| Pisa | W 3–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Fiorentina | W 3–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Cagliari | W 1–0 H | L 0–2 A |
| Sassuolo | W 2–0 A | D 1–1 A |
| Points | 39 of 57 · 2.05 per game | 21 of 57 · 1.11 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Napoli wins1 draws0 Parma wins
Goals per game1.00 – 0.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 18 May 2025Parma0–0Napoli
- 31 Aug 2024Napoli2–1Parma
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Napoli | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.58 | 0.74 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.89 | 1.16 | |
| Match goals | 2.47 | 1.89 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 63% | |
| Over 2.5 | 47% | 32% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 32% | 11% | |
| Both teams scored | 47% | 42% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 37% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 21% | 47% | |
| Games | 19 | 19 |
| Napoli | Parma | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.30 | 2.30 | 2.81 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 40% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Napoli | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.88 | 3.53 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.94 | 4.71 | |
| Match total | 7.82 | 8.24 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 29% 5/17 | 41% 7/17 | |
| Over 9.5 | 24% 4/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Over 10.5 | 24% 4/17 | 35% 6/17 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.47 | 1.74 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.26 | |
| Match total | 3.47 | 4.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 42% 8/19 | 63% 12/19 | |
| Over 4.5 | 16% 3/19 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Napoli | Parma | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.44 | 4.56 | |
| Match total | 7.44 | 8.23 | 8.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 22% 2/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.60 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.40 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Michael Fabbri Italy · 64 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.88
Red cards0.31league 0.18
Cards 5+34%league 38%
Fouls24.3league 25.8
Penalties0.13league 0.31
Home wins38%league 37%
Napoli9 with this referee
Record6-3-0
Cards · opp.1.7 · 2.1
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds2
- W14 Apr 25H · Empoli3–01
- D2 Feb 25A · AS Roma1–11
- W1 Dec 24A · Torino1–01
- D14 Apr 24H · Frosinone2–23
- D16 Sep 23A · Genoa2–22
Parma2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L10 May 25A · Empoli1–22
- D19 Oct 24A · Como1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Napoli19 games · scored 30 · conceded 17
5
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
7
3
31-45
6
5
46-60
4
3
61-75
5
2
76-90
Parma19 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
4
4
61-75
3
7
76-90
Napoli10 games · scored 16 · conceded 9
3
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 10 · conceded 13
1
4
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
1
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
