NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 43 pts · 24 played
WWLDD
First leg2–3
2–3Full time
Fortuna Sittard
11th · 29 pts · 24 played
WLDLW
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were clear favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (40 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen had 7 days of rest, Fortuna Sittard 8 and had to travel 94 km.
Away travel94 kmRest days7 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
NEC Nijmegen65%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard15%
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw23%
Fortuna Sittard18%
NEC Nijmegen64%
Draw20%
Fortuna Sittard16%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw22%
Fortuna Sittard21%
NEC Nijmegen63%
Draw21%
Fortuna Sittard16%
Over 2.5 64%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 2–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsAllard Lindhout
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.19
- Matches 73
Team strength
NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
40
L90 StrengthIn forecast
19
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
21
37
AttackIn forecast
19
33
DefenceIn forecast
19
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFortuna Sittard
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard
2.46
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.79
1.74
xGVia Att/Def
1.11
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.57
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.39
96%
Scored inContext
88%
13%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
15.71
ShotsContext
12.63
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.61
42%
On target shareContext
35%
9.75
Shots in the boxContext
7.92
62%
Box shareContext
62%
16%
ConversionContext
12%
2.55
OffsidesContext
1.95
11.46
Shots allowedContext
14.42
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.58
2.50
BlocksContext
3.96
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.96
67%
Save rateContext
71%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
429
PassesContext
367
343
Accurate passesContext
284
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.93
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.38
FoulsContext
12.79
11.79
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.79
Yellow cardsContext
2.17
0.08
Red cardsContext
0.04
2.30
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.60
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.03
1.45
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.77
+0.72
Goals minus xGContext
+0.57
100%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.40
ShotsContext
12.30
6.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.30
42%
On target shareContext
35%
9.40
Shots in the boxContext
7.20
64%
Box shareContext
58%
15%
ConversionContext
13%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.75
11.90
Shots allowedContext
15.70
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.00
3.10
BlocksContext
4.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.10
62%
Save rateContext
68%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
433
PassesContext
356
345
Accurate passesContext
274
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.78
10.90
FoulsContext
11.90
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.90
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km366 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fortuna Sittard
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel94 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Fortuna Sittard |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 21 Feb | 8Eredivisie 2025-2026, 20 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 94 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 366 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8 | 7.7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
24D. Fonville
4A. Kaplan
2B. Pereira
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
10T. Chery
18K. Ogawa
9Danilo
Fortuna Sittard
Confirmed XI
1L. Koopmans(G)
8J. Dahlhaus
28J. Hubner
44Iván Márquez
12Ivo Pinto
20É. Michut
23P. Brittijn
70L. Duijvestijn
52M. Ihattaren
18D. Limnios
9K. Sierhuis
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Fortuna Sittard
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+1.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Fortuna Sittard-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.09points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-2
- Scored
- 2.73
- Conceded
- 1.55
Fortuna Sittard · Away
0.67points per game · 12 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-2-8
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.08
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H | L 1–4 AL 1–3 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | D 1–1 AW 3–1 H | D 2–2 HD 1–1 A |
| Utrecht | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | W 4–3 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | L 0–1 A |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | W 3–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | L 0–2 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | W 2–1 AL 1–2 H |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | L 2–3 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 AD 2–2 H |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 1–2 HL 2–5 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Points | 43 of 69 · 1.87 per game | 26 of 69 · 1.13 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
3 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws1 Fortuna Sittard wins
Goals per game3.25 – 1.25
Over 2.5100%
Both scored75%
Clean sheets25% · 0%
- 31 Aug 2025Fortuna Sittard3–2NEC Nijmegen
- 19 Jan 2025NEC Nijmegen4–1Fortuna Sittard
- 31 Aug 2024Fortuna Sittard0–3NEC Nijmegen
- 15 Dec 2023NEC Nijmegen4–1Fortuna Sittard
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.46 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.79 | |
| Match goals | 4.13 | 3.29 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 96% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 79% | 67% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 67% | 42% | |
| Both teams scored | 83% | 75% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 13% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 4% | 13% | |
| Games | 24 | 24 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.60 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.70 | 3.29 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 90% | 64% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 90% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.22 | 4.77 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.48 | 6.59 | |
| Match total | 9.70 | 11.36 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 61% 14/23 | 82% 18/22 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 12/23 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 11/23 | 55% 12/22 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.92 | 2.21 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.17 | 1.46 | |
| Match total | 4.09 | 3.67 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 12/24 | 46% 11/24 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 12/24 | 38% 9/24 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Fortuna Sittard | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 8.00 | |
| Match total | 10.00 | 12.67 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 56% 5/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.30 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Allard Lindhout Netherlands · 73 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.59league 3.30
Red cards0.21league 0.19
Cards 5+34%league 30%
Fouls20.0league 21.6
Penalties0.19league 0.25
Home wins37%league 45%
NEC Nijmegen4 with this referee
Record1-1-2
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.5
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- D20 Dec 25H · Ajax2–24
- W9 Nov 25H · Groningen2–01
- L10 Aug 24H · Twente1–20
- L13 Aug 23H · Excelsior3–41
Fortuna Sittard4 with this referee
Record1-0-3
Cards · opp.2.0 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L17 Sep 25A · Feyenoord0–21
- L16 Mar 25A · Groningen0–14
- L22 Sep 24H · PSV Eindhoven1–33
- W10 Nov 23H · Heracles4–10
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen24 games · scored 59 · conceded 40
8
5
0-15
5
5
16-30
8
12
31-45
13
8
46-60
11
5
61-75
14
5
76-90
Fortuna Sittard24 games · scored 36 · conceded 43
8
7
0-15
1
9
16-30
9
8
31-45
4
5
46-60
4
5
61-75
10
9
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 23 · conceded 17
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
3
7
31-45
6
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Fortuna Sittard10 games · scored 16 · conceded 21
4
5
0-15
4
16-30
7
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
3
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
