Eredivisie Knockout phase Sat, Feb 28 · 20:00 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen
NEC Nijmegen 3rd · 43 pts · 24 played
First leg2–3 2–3Full time
Fortuna Sittard 11th · 29 pts · 24 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
NEC Nijmegen64.7%fair odds 1.55
Draw19.9%fair odds 5.03
Fortuna Sittard15.4%fair odds 6.48
Expected goals2.26 – 1.03total 3.29
Likeliest score2–19.8%

Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.

Match Opportunity

How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.

NEC Nijmegen

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

Fortuna Sittard

— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.

About this comparison

The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.

Score matrix

NEC Nijmegen ↓ · Fortuna Sittard →0123456+
04.23.42.00.70.20.00.0
18.09.14.51.50.40.10.0
29.69.85.01.70.40.10.0
37.27.43.81.30.30.10.0
44.14.22.10.70.20.00.0
51.81.91.00.30.10.00.0
6+1.01.00.50.20.00.00.0

Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns Fortuna Sittard goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.

Most likely scores

  • 2–19.8%10.20
  • 2–09.6%10.47
  • 1–19.1%10.94
  • 1–08.0%12.50
  • 3–17.4%13.55
  • 3–07.2%13.90
  • 2–25.0%19.89
  • 1–24.5%22.46
  • 0–04.2%23.79
  • 4–14.2%23.99

Winning margin

22.8% NEC Nijmegen by 3+ fair 4.38
19.4% NEC Nijmegen by 2 fair 5.14
22.4% NEC Nijmegen by 1 fair 4.46
19.9% Draw fair 5.03
9.9% Fortuna Sittard by 1 fair 10.07
4.0% Fortuna Sittard by 2 fair 24.94
1.5% Fortuna Sittard by 3+ fair 66.69

Goal distribution

Total goals

4%0
11%1
21%2
22%3
18%4
23%5+

NEC Nijmegen goals

10%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+

Fortuna Sittard goals

36%0
37%1
19%2
6%3
2%4+

LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda

LOAD90EloLambdaChange
NEC Nijmegen win 64.7% 62.9% +1.7 pp
Draw 19.9% 20.9% -1.0 pp
Fortuna Sittard win 15.4% 16.2% -0.7 pp
Over 2.5 63.8% 60.6% +3.1 pp
Both teams score 57.9% 56.2% +1.7 pp
Expected goals NEC Nijmegen 2.26 2.14 +0.12
Expected goals Fortuna Sittard 1.03 1.00 +0.03

EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.

All markets model probability and fair odds

Result

  • NEC Nijmegen win64.7%1.55
  • Draw19.9%5.03
  • Fortuna Sittard win15.4%6.48
  • Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw84.6%1.18
  • Double chance NEC Nijmegen or Fortuna Sittard80.1%1.25
  • Double chance Fortuna Sittard or draw35.3%2.83
  • Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen80.7%1.24
  • Draw no bet Fortuna Sittard19.3%5.19

Goals

  • Over 0.595.8%1.04
  • Over 1.584.4%1.18
  • Over 2.563.8%1.57
  • Over 3.541.6%2.40
  • Over 4.523.5%4.26
  • Under 1.515.6%6.42
  • Under 2.536.2%2.76
  • Under 3.558.4%1.71

Both teams to score

  • Yes57.9%1.73
  • No42.1%2.38
  • Yes and over 2.548.8%2.05
  • NEC Nijmegen win and yes33.1%3.03
  • Draw and yes15.7%6.38
  • Fortuna Sittard win and yes9.2%10.88

Team goals

  • NEC Nijmegen over 0.589.6%1.12
  • NEC Nijmegen over 1.566.0%1.52
  • NEC Nijmegen over 2.539.3%2.54
  • Fortuna Sittard over 0.564.2%1.56
  • Fortuna Sittard over 1.527.4%3.65
  • Fortuna Sittard over 2.58.5%11.74
  • NEC Nijmegen clean sheet35.8%2.79
  • Fortuna Sittard clean sheet10.4%9.57
  • NEC Nijmegen win to nil31.6%3.16
  • Fortuna Sittard win to nil6.2%16.02

Handicap

  • NEC Nijmegen −1.542.3%2.36
  • NEC Nijmegen −2.522.8%4.38
  • Fortuna Sittard +1.557.7%1.73
  • Fortuna Sittard +2.577.2%1.30
  • Fortuna Sittard −1.55.5%18.15
  • NEC Nijmegen +1.594.5%1.06

Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.

Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026

All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.

Matches scored219 Favourite won51.6% Avg chance given to result41.2% 1X2 Brier0.586 Over 2.5 called right62.6% BTTS called right63.9%

Calibration · when the favourite was given…

Favourite chanceMatchesPredictedActually won
30–40%3738.1%32.4%
40–50%8044.9%48.8%
50–60%4955.0%44.9%
60–70%2864.2%64.3%
70–80%1874.3%88.9%
80%+784.7%85.7%

LOAD90 vs Bookmaker

Compared on the same 194 of 219 scored matches.

LOAD90Bookmaker
1X2 Brier (lower is better)0.59250.5870
Avg chance given to result40.8%42.1%
Favourite won50.5%52.6%

Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 194 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.

Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 219 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.