NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 38 pts · 20 played
DDWWW
First leg4–1
4–1Full time
Heracles
16th · 17 pts · 21 played
LLLLW
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were clear favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (42 vs 14). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Heracles. NEC Nijmegen had 7 days of rest, Heracles 6.1 and had to travel 80 km.
Away travel80 kmRest days7 · 6.1Matches / 14d2 · 2
NEC Nijmegen66%
Draw20%
Heracles14%
NEC Nijmegen66%
Draw21%
Heracles14%
NEC Nijmegen65%
Draw21%
Heracles14%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw23%
Heracles19%
NEC Nijmegen64%
Draw21%
Heracles14%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsJoey Kooij
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.25
- Matches 52
Team strength
NEC NijmegenHeracles
42
L90 StrengthIn forecast
14
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
9
37
AttackIn forecast
7
33
DefenceIn forecast
10
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisHeracles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenHeracles
2.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.70
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.52
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.44
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.82
+0.83
Goals minus xGContext
+0.26
95%
Scored inContext
62%
15%
Clean sheetsContext
5%
15.55
ShotsContext
10.38
6.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
43%
On target shareContext
39%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
7.10
63%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
14%
2.47
OffsidesContext
1.71
11.65
Shots allowedContext
17.05
5.05
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.67
2.55
BlocksContext
5.50
3.53
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.05
68%
Save rateContext
61%
56%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
416
PassesContext
337
331
Accurate passesContext
260
80%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.95
Team ratingContext
6.74
11.60
FoulsContext
12.62
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.29
1.75
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.05
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.10
1.77
xGVia Att/Def
1.32
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.60
+0.73
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
90%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.80
ShotsContext
9.80
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
43%
On target shareContext
46%
10.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.89
65%
Box shareContext
74%
16%
ConversionContext
15%
2.33
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.80
Shots allowedContext
15.40
4.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.90
3.20
BlocksContext
4.89
3.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.80
73%
Save rateContext
64%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
393
PassesContext
335
307
Accurate passesContext
256
78%
Pass accuracyContext
77%
6.91
Team ratingContext
6.77
11.10
FoulsContext
13.40
9.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.90
Yellow cardsContext
2.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km231 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Heracles
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel80 km313 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Heracles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7Eredivisie 2025-2026, 31 Jan | 6.1Eredivisie 2025-2026, 1 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 80 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 231 km | 313 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
23K. Sano
6D. Nejašmić
2B. Pereira
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Heracles
Confirmed XI
22R. Pasveer(G)
24I. Mesík
6S. Čestić
23M. te Wierik
5D. van der Kust
4D. Mirani
70A. Hrustić
2M. Benita
9N. Ünüvar
73W. Ould-Chikh
25L. Zeefuik
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Heracles
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.7 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Heracles-0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.22points per game · 9 home games
- W-D-L
- 6-2-1
- Scored
- 2.78
- Conceded
- 1.44
Heracles · Away
0.36points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-1-9
- Scored
- 0.91
- Conceded
- 2.64
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Heracles |
|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–2 H |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 8–2 H |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| FC Volendam | W 3–2 A | L 0–3 A |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–1 H | L 0–2 AW 3–0 H |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | L 2–4 AL 0–7 H |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | L 0–4 A |
| Utrecht | L 0–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | L 0–2 HL 1–2 A |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | W 4–2 H |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | L 0–3 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 3–4 A |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | W 2–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | W 2–1 A |
| Points | 35 of 57 · 1.84 per game | 17 of 60 · 0.85 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 5 of 5 meetings
3 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws2 Heracles wins
Goals per game2.20 – 1.40
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 16 Aug 2025Heracles1–4NEC Nijmegen
- 18 May 2025Heracles1–2NEC Nijmegen
- 21 Sep 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Heracles
- 3 Feb 2024NEC Nijmegen3–1Heracles
- 18 Aug 2023Heracles2–1NEC Nijmegen
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.60 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.70 | 2.52 | |
| Match goals | 4.30 | 3.95 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 85% | 76% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 38% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 57% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 15% | 5% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 38% | |
| Games | 20 | 21 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Heracles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 2.10 | |
| Match goals | 4.00 | 3.60 | 3.06 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 60% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 70% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.35 | 4.19 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.25 | 6.38 | |
| Match total | 9.60 | 10.57 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 12/20 | 76% 16/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 10/20 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 45% 9/20 | 38% 8/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 2.10 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.15 | 4.20 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 10/20 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 10/20 | 38% 8/21 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Heracles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.60 | 4.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.50 | 6.50 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 11.30 | 10.22 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 4.80 | 3.61 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Joey Kooij Netherlands · 52 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.39
Red cards0.15league 0.21
Cards 5+29%league 32%
Fouls22.1league 21.7
Penalties0.25league 0.26
Home wins50%league 44%
NEC Nijmegen3 with this referee
Record0-1-2
Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
- L1 Dec 24H · Ajax1–21
- D11 Nov 23A · Twente3–33
- L16 Sep 23A · PSV Eindhoven0–43
Heracles3 with this referee
Record1-0-2
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 2
Reds1
- L8 Mar 25A · Fortuna Sittard0–12
- L4 Nov 23H · PSV Eindhoven0–62
- W2 Sep 23H · Excelsior3–11
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen20 games · scored 52 · conceded 34
8
4
0-15
4
4
16-30
7
10
31-45
10
7
46-60
10
4
61-75
13
5
76-90
Heracles21 games · scored 30 · conceded 53
3
6
0-15
5
6
16-30
6
12
31-45
7
7
46-60
4
7
61-75
5
15
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 25 · conceded 15
5
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
4
7
31-45
5
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
6
2
76-90
Heracles10 games · scored 15 · conceded 21
1
2
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
5
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
