NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 38 pts · 20 played
DDWWW
First leg4–1
4–1Full time
Heracles
16th · 17 pts · 21 played
LLLLW
NEC Nijmegen65.7%fair odds 1.52
Draw20.3%fair odds 4.93
Heracles14.0%fair odds 7.14
Expected goals2.16 – 0.90total 3.06
Likeliest score2–010.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Heracles
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NEC Nijmegen ↓ · Heracles → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 7.9 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.3 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns Heracles goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–010.9%9.15
- 2–19.8%10.16
- 1–09.6%10.38
- 1–19.6%10.43
- 3–07.9%12.69
- 3–17.1%14.10
- 0–05.2%19.37
- 2–24.4%22.57
- 4–04.3%23.49
- 1–24.1%24.39
Winning margin
22.5%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 4.44
20.0%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 5.00
23.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.30
20.3%
Draw
fair 4.93
9.4%
Heracles by 1
fair 10.64
3.5%
Heracles by 2
fair 28.83
1.1%
Heracles by 3+
fair 88.48
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
NEC Nijmegen goals
12%0
25%1
27%2
19%3
17%4+
Heracles goals
41%0
37%1
16%2
5%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen win | 65.7% | 64.4% | +1.3 pp |
| Draw | 20.3% | 21.1% | -0.8 pp |
| Heracles win | 14.0% | 14.5% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.1% | 56.5% | +2.5 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.0% | 51.6% | +1.4 pp |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 2.16 | 2.07 | +0.09 |
| Expected goals Heracles | 0.90 | 0.88 | +0.02 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NEC Nijmegen win65.7%1.52
- Draw20.3%4.93
- Heracles win14.0%7.14
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw86.0%1.16
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or Heracles79.7%1.25
- Double chance Heracles or draw34.3%2.92
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen82.4%1.21
- Draw no bet Heracles17.6%5.70
Goals
- Over 0.594.8%1.05
- Over 1.581.5%1.23
- Over 2.559.1%1.69
- Over 3.536.7%2.73
- Over 4.519.5%5.12
- Under 1.518.5%5.40
- Under 2.540.9%2.44
- Under 3.563.3%1.58
Both teams to score
- Yes53.0%1.89
- No47.0%2.13
- Yes and over 2.543.4%2.30
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes30.3%3.31
- Draw and yes15.1%6.62
- Heracles win and yes7.6%13.08
Team goals
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.588.5%1.13
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.563.6%1.57
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.536.7%2.72
- Heracles over 0.559.4%1.68
- Heracles over 1.522.8%4.39
- Heracles over 2.56.3%15.89
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet40.6%2.46
- Heracles clean sheet11.5%8.69
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil35.5%2.82
- Heracles win to nil6.4%15.74
Handicap
- NEC Nijmegen −1.542.5%2.35
- NEC Nijmegen −2.522.5%4.44
- Heracles +1.557.5%1.74
- Heracles +2.577.5%1.29
- Heracles −1.54.6%21.74
- NEC Nijmegen +1.595.4%1.05
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored188
Favourite won50.5%
Avg chance given to result41.1%
1X2 Brier0.589
Over 2.5 called right63.3%
BTTS called right61.7%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 33 | 38.0% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 70 | 45.1% | 44.3% |
| 50–60% | 42 | 55.3% | 50.0% |
| 60–70% | 22 | 64.0% | 59.1% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.3% | 92.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 165 of 188 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5929 | 0.5907 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.7% | 42.0% |
| Favourite won | 49.7% | 51.5% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 165 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 188 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.