NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia – 15 Oct 2026

UEFA Europa League Matchday 2 Thu, Oct 15 · 20:00 Goffertstadion, Nijmegen

NEC Nijmegen 34th · 0 pts · 1 played L

1–1Full time

Levski Sofia 28th · 0 pts · 1 played L

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.

NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 26). NEC Nijmegen were without P. Sandler. Levski Sofia were without N. Serafimov. NEC Nijmegen had 5 days of rest, Levski Sofia 28.1 and had to travel 1,658 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel1,658 kmRest days5 · 28.1Matches / 14d1 · 0

NEC Nijmegen52%

Draw22%

Levski Sofia26%

Expected goals 1.90 – 1.29

NEC Nijmegen50%

Draw25%

Levski Sofia25%

Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09

NEC Nijmegen52%

Draw22%

Levski Sofia26%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.27

NEC Nijmegen44%

Draw23%

Levski Sofia33%

Expected goals 1.70 – 1.45

NEC Nijmegen51%

Draw23%

Levski Sofia26%

Expected goals 1.87 – 1.28

Over 2.5 62% Both score 62% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nijmegen)

19°COvercast

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 14 km/h
Humidity 70%

RefereeAliyar Agayev

Cards per match 6.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 1

Team strength

NEC Nijmegen

Levski Sofia

34 L90 StrengthIn forecast 26

32 Current StrengthIn forecast 26

37 AttackIn forecast 24

33 DefenceIn forecast 26

15 Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

NEC Nijmegen

Attack+5%

Defense risk−9%

Levski Sofia

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

NEC Nijmegen

Levski Sofia

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.10

2.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.20

2.04 xGVia Att/Def —

1.76 xG allowedVia Att/Def —

-0.74 Goals minus xGContext —

70% Scored inContext 70%

0% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.30 ShotsContext 11.33

3.80 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.20

31% On target shareContext 24%

6.90 Shots in the boxContext 5.20

55% Box shareContext 45%

11% ConversionContext 9%

3.00 OffsidesContext —

13.10 Shots allowedContext 13.17

5.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.80

3.10 BlocksContext 3.80

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00

57% Save rateContext 69%

54% PossessionIn forecast 52%

455 PassesContext 475

368 Accurate passesContext 411

81% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.48 Team ratingContext 6.76

11.50 FoulsContext 10.80

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 13.80

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

NEC Nijmegen DLLDD

Rest5 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km177 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 15 · 3 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · -3.5 vs expected

D10 OctA · Ajax1–10.7 xPts
D20 SepH · GO Ahead Eagles1–11.7 xPts
L17 SepA · Juventus0–50.6 xPts
L12 SepA · Cambuur0–31.7 xPts
D8 SepH · Excelsior2–21.8 xPts

Levski Sofia L

Rest28.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel1,658 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

Form 35 · 0 pts vs 1.8 for an average club · -1.2 vs expected

L17 SepH · Red Bull Salzburg0–11.3 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	NEC Nijmegen	Levski Sofia
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Moderate · 20
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5Eredivisie 2026-2027, 10 Oct	28.1UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 17 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,658 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	177 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 1 / 3	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	3	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

NEC Nijmegen Confirmed XI

3-4-3

1G. Crettaz(G)

24D. Fonville 4P. Schuurs 73Gabriel Brás

99Clement Bischoff 20N. Lebreton 6D. Nejašmić 34Kevin Kers

10D. Tadić 30B. Linssen 9T. Chery

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Levski Sofia Confirmed XI

4-3-3

92S. Vutsov(G)

3Maicon 4C. Makoun 50K. Dimitrov 21Aldair

19E. El Moubarik 8M. Grujić 35Serginho

17Everton Bala 7Reinaldo 27D. Kusso

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

NEC Nijmegen Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −19.1% · Defence line −12.9% of weighted minutes

DEF P. Sandler Starter 6.69 Def −9.2%
ATT A. Thomas Rotation 6.46 Att −6.3%
MID D. Geiger Rotation 6.23 Att −2.5% Def −1.6%
ATT Adam Tahaui Rotation 6.68 Att −4.3%
ATT K. Sierhuis Rotation 6.79 Att −3.1%
DEF B. Nuytinck Rotation 6.33 Def −2.0%

+2 more with impact

Levski Sofia Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.05 goals

Attack line −4.9% · Defence line −14.7% of weighted minutes

DEF N. Serafimov Starter 4.16 Def −11.6%
MID A. Bouras Rotation 0.00 Att −2.1% Def −1.3%
DEF O. Kamdem Rotation 0.00 Def −1.7%
ATT M. Soula Rotation 6.24 Att −2.6%
MID A. Mitkov Depth 6.61 Att −0.2% Def −0.2%

3 without recent minutes (no impact): R. Kirilov, M. Sangaré, P. Hristov

Total impact vs full squads

NEC Nijmegen-0.2 pp
Draw-0.1 pp
Levski Sofia+0.3 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

NEC Nijmegen · Home No home games yet this season.

Levski Sofia · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	NEC Nijmegen	Levski Sofia	Forecast
Scored per game	0.00	0.00
Conceded per game	5.00	1.00
Match goals	5.00	1.00	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	0%
Over 2.5	100%	0%	62%
Over 3.5	100%	0%
Both teams scored	0%	0%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	0%
Failed to score	100%	100%
Games	1	1

	NEC Nijmegen	Levski Sofia	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.11
Conceded per game	2.30	0.89
Match goals	3.60	2.00	3.20
Over 1.5	100%	44%
Over 2.5	80%	33%	62%
Over 3.5	60%	33%
Both teams scored	70%	22%	62%
Clean sheets	0%	56%
Failed to score	30%	33%
Games	10	9

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	NEC Nijmegen	Levski Sofia	League
Corners
Corners won	—	5.00
Corners conceded	—	4.00
Match total	—	9.00	9.67
Over 8.5	—	100% 1/1
Over 9.5	—	0% 0/1
Over 10.5	—	0% 0/1
Cards
Cards	1.00	1.00
Opponent cards	1.00	5.00
Match total	2.00	6.00	3.71
Over 3.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1
Over 4.5	0% 0/1	100% 1/1

	NEC Nijmegen	Levski Sofia	League
Corners
Corners won	3.89	4.00
Corners conceded	3.67	4.33
Match total	7.56	8.33	9.67
Over 8.5	44% 4/9	67% 4/6
Over 9.5	22% 2/9	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	22% 2/9	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.60	1.70
Opponent cards	1.40	2.10
Match total	3.00	3.80	3.71
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	0% 0/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Aliyar Agayev 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards6.00league 3.58

Red cards0.00league 0.12

Cards 5+100%league 38%

Fouls27.0league 24.7

Penalties0.00league 0.23

Home wins0%league 38%

NEC Nijmegen

No previous matches with this referee.

Levski Sofia

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.