NEC Nijmegen
Attack—
Defense risk—
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 41 pts · 21 played
DWWWW
First leg0–1
1–3Full time
Utrecht
13th · 24 pts · 21 played
LLLDL
Our take
NEC Nijmegen were slight favourites.
NEC Nijmegen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (43 vs 26). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for NEC Nijmegen. NEC Nijmegen had 4.2 days of rest, Utrecht 3.4 and had to travel 57 km.
Away travel57 kmRest days4.2 · 3.4Matches / 14d2 · 3
NEC Nijmegen59%
Draw23%
Utrecht18%
NEC Nijmegen55%
Draw24%
Utrecht21%
NEC Nijmegen58%
Draw23%
Utrecht19%
NEC Nijmegen51%
Draw25%
Utrecht24%
NEC Nijmegen57%
Draw24%
Utrecht19%
Over 2.5 55%
Both score 53%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nijmegen)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.5
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 103
Team strength
NEC NijmegenUtrecht
43
L90 StrengthIn forecast
26
30
Current StrengthIn forecast
34
37
AttackIn forecast
32
33
DefenceIn forecast
31
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisUtrecht
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NEC NijmegenUtrecht
2.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.43
1.67
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.33
1.81
xGVia Att/Def
1.15
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
+0.86
Goals minus xGContext
+0.28
95%
Scored inContext
81%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
15.52
ShotsContext
14.10
6.67
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.76
43%
On target shareContext
34%
9.90
Shots in the boxContext
9.19
63%
Box shareContext
65%
17%
ConversionContext
10%
2.39
OffsidesContext
1.62
11.57
Shots allowedContext
11.57
4.90
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.38
2.48
BlocksContext
3.83
3.40
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
68%
Save rateContext
69%
57%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
420
PassesContext
406
335
Accurate passesContext
327
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.96
Team ratingContext
6.89
11.43
FoulsContext
10.71
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
1.67
Yellow cardsContext
1.38
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.70
1.83
xGVia Att/Def
0.90
1.50
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.24
+1.07
Goals minus xGContext
-0.10
100%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
15.70
ShotsContext
12.20
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.20
44%
On target shareContext
34%
10.60
Shots in the boxContext
7.40
68%
Box shareContext
61%
19%
ConversionContext
7%
2.22
OffsidesContext
1.83
12.70
Shots allowedContext
12.70
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.10
BlocksContext
3.40
3.30
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.30
72%
Save rateContext
66%
54%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
395
PassesContext
405
312
Accurate passesContext
332
79%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.40
FoulsContext
9.90
10.10
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
NEC Nijmegen
Rest4.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km231 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Utrecht
Rest3.4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel57 km1,706 km in 14d
Schedule load28%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| NEC Nijmegen |
Utrecht |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Moderate · 28 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 7 Feb | 3.4Eredivisie 2025-2026, 8 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 57 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 231 km | 1,706 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 3 / 6 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
NEC Nijmegen
Confirmed XI
1G. Crettaz(G)
4A. Kaplan
3P. Sandler
14E. Dasa
11B. Önal
6D. Nejašmić
23K. Sano
25S. Ouaissa
20N. Lebreton
10T. Chery
30B. Linssen
Utrecht
Confirmed XI
1V. Barkas(G)
16S. El Karouani
24N. Viergever
40M. Didden
23N. Vesterlund
21G. Zechiël
20D. de Wit
27A. Engwanda
10Y. Cathline
18A. Stepanov
77Ángel Alarcón
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences NEC Nijmegen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Utrecht
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- NEC Nijmegen+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Utrecht-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
NEC Nijmegen · Home
2.30points per game · 10 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-2-1
- Scored
- 2.90
- Conceded
- 1.40
Utrecht · Away
0.70points per game · 10 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-4-5
- Scored
- 1.20
- Conceded
- 1.70
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht |
|---|---|---|
| Heracles | W 4–1 HW 4–1 A | W 4–0 H |
| AZ Alkmaar | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H | L 1–4 A |
| PEC Zwolle | W 2–1 HD 2–2 A | W 2–0 A |
| NAC Breda | W 4–3 AW 3–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Ajax | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Telstar | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| FC Volendam | W 3–2 A | L 1–2 AW 3–1 H |
| Sparta Rotterdam | W 3–1 H | L 0–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Feyenoord | W 4–2 A | L 0–1 HL 2–3 A |
| Groningen | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 H |
| Twente | D 3–3 H | D 1–1 H |
| GO Ahead Eagles | D 1–1 A | D 2–2 A |
| Heerenveen | L 2–3 A | D 1–1 AD 2–2 H |
| PSV Eindhoven | L 3–5 H | L 1–2 H |
| Fortuna Sittard | L 2–3 A | L 0–1 A |
| Excelsior | W 5–0 H | W 4–1 H |
| Points | 41 of 60 · 2.05 per game | 21 of 60 · 1.05 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 4 of 4 meetings
2 NEC Nijmegen wins0 draws2 Utrecht wins
Goals per game1.25 – 0.75
Over 2.550%
Both scored25%
Clean sheets50% · 25%
- 2 Nov 2025Utrecht1–0NEC Nijmegen
- 15 Mar 2025Utrecht0–1NEC Nijmegen
- 24 Nov 2024NEC Nijmegen1–2Utrecht
- 23 Sep 2023NEC Nijmegen3–0Utrecht
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.67 | 1.43 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.67 | 1.33 | |
| Match goals | 4.33 | 2.76 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 95% | 76% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 52% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 71% | 33% | |
| Both teams scored | 81% | 67% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 5% | 19% | |
| Games | 21 | 21 |
| NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.90 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.70 | |
| Match goals | 4.40 | 2.50 | 2.88 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 40% | 55% |
| Over 3.5 | 80% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 70% | 53% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.24 | 4.58 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.29 | 4.79 | |
| Match total | 9.53 | 9.37 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 53% 10/19 | |
| Over 9.5 | 48% 10/21 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 9/21 | 42% 8/19 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.81 | 1.43 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.19 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.53 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 10/21 | 48% 10/21 | |
| Over 4.5 | 48% 10/21 | 19% 4/21 | |
| NEC Nijmegen | Utrecht | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.70 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.80 | 6.22 | |
| Match total | 10.50 | 10.66 | 10.26 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 78% 7/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 60% 6/10 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.10 | 3.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 103 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.34league 3.36
Red cards0.13league 0.20
Cards 5+26%league 31%
Fouls21.7league 21.7
Penalties0.30league 0.25
Home wins42%league 43%
NEC Nijmegen5 with this referee
Record1-2-2
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against1 · 0
Reds1
- L13 Sep 25H · PSV Eindhoven3–52
- W9 Aug 25H · Excelsior5–01
- D3 May 25H · Willem II1–12
- L23 Feb 25A · Twente0–22
- D21 Oct 23H · Almere City FC1–12
Utrecht4 with this referee
Record2-1-1
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.3
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W9 Nov 25H · Ajax2–11
- L1 Dec 24H · PSV Eindhoven2–52
- W29 Sep 24A · AZ Alkmaar2–12
- D17 Aug 24A · Heerenveen1–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
NEC Nijmegen21 games · scored 56 · conceded 35
8
4
0-15
5
5
16-30
8
10
31-45
11
7
46-60
10
4
61-75
14
5
76-90
Utrecht21 games · scored 30 · conceded 28
1
5
0-15
3
4
16-30
7
4
31-45
8
5
46-60
6
3
61-75
5
7
76-90
NEC Nijmegen10 games · scored 29 · conceded 15
5
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
5
6
31-45
6
2
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
2
76-90
Utrecht10 games · scored 8 · conceded 17
5
0-15
1
3
16-30
2
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
