NEC Nijmegen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
NEC Nijmegen
3rd · 41 pts · 21 played
DWWWW
First leg0–1
1–3Full time
Utrecht
13th · 24 pts · 21 played
LLLDL
NEC Nijmegen58.9%fair odds 1.70
Draw23.0%fair odds 4.34
Utrecht18.1%fair odds 5.52
Expected goals1.91 – 0.97total 2.88
Likeliest score1–110.9%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Utrecht
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| NEC Nijmegen ↓ · Utrecht → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 10.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are NEC Nijmegen goals, columns Utrecht goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–110.9%9.15
- 2–010.2%9.76
- 1–010.2%9.85
- 2–19.9%10.07
- 3–06.5%15.31
- 3–16.3%15.79
- 0–06.1%16.27
- 1–25.0%19.86
- 0–14.9%20.50
- 2–24.8%20.76
Winning margin
16.9%
NEC Nijmegen by 3+
fair 5.90
18.2%
NEC Nijmegen by 2
fair 5.48
23.7%
NEC Nijmegen by 1
fair 4.22
23.0%
Draw
fair 4.34
11.7%
Utrecht by 1
fair 8.52
4.7%
Utrecht by 2
fair 21.33
1.7%
Utrecht by 3+
fair 59.30
Goal distribution
Total goals
6%0
15%1
24%2
22%3
16%4
17%5+
NEC Nijmegen goals
15%0
28%1
27%2
17%3
13%4+
Utrecht goals
38%0
37%1
18%2
6%3
2%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NEC Nijmegen win | 58.9% | 57.4% | +1.4 pp |
| Draw | 23.0% | 24.0% | -1.0 pp |
| Utrecht win | 18.1% | 18.6% | -0.5 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 55.0% | 51.7% | +3.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 53.5% | 51.3% | +2.1 pp |
| Expected goals NEC Nijmegen | 1.91 | 1.81 | +0.10 |
| Expected goals Utrecht | 0.97 | 0.93 | +0.04 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- NEC Nijmegen win58.9%1.70
- Draw23.0%4.34
- Utrecht win18.1%5.52
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or draw81.9%1.22
- Double chance NEC Nijmegen or Utrecht77.0%1.30
- Double chance Utrecht or draw41.1%2.43
- Draw no bet NEC Nijmegen76.5%1.31
- Draw no bet Utrecht23.5%4.25
Goals
- Over 0.593.9%1.07
- Over 1.578.8%1.27
- Over 2.555.0%1.82
- Over 3.532.7%3.06
- Over 4.516.5%6.04
- Under 1.521.2%4.72
- Under 2.545.0%2.22
- Under 3.567.3%1.48
Both teams to score
- Yes53.5%1.87
- No46.5%2.15
- Yes and over 2.542.5%2.35
- NEC Nijmegen win and yes27.1%3.69
- Draw and yes16.9%5.93
- Utrecht win and yes9.5%10.53
Team goals
- NEC Nijmegen over 0.585.2%1.17
- NEC Nijmegen over 1.557.0%1.75
- NEC Nijmegen over 2.530.0%3.34
- Utrecht over 0.562.1%1.61
- Utrecht over 1.525.3%3.95
- Utrecht over 2.57.5%13.36
- NEC Nijmegen clean sheet37.9%2.64
- Utrecht clean sheet14.8%6.77
- NEC Nijmegen win to nil31.8%3.15
- Utrecht win to nil8.6%11.61
Handicap
- NEC Nijmegen −1.535.2%2.84
- NEC Nijmegen −2.516.9%5.90
- Utrecht +1.564.8%1.54
- Utrecht +2.583.1%1.20
- Utrecht −1.56.4%15.69
- NEC Nijmegen +1.593.6%1.07
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Eredivisie 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored197
Favourite won50.3%
Avg chance given to result40.9%
1X2 Brier0.591
Over 2.5 called right62.9%
BTTS called right62.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.1% | 32.4% |
| 40–50% | 72 | 45.0% | 44.4% |
| 50–60% | 45 | 55.0% | 48.9% |
| 60–70% | 25 | 64.0% | 60.0% |
| 70–80% | 14 | 74.3% | 92.9% |
| 80%+ | 7 | 84.7% | 85.7% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 174 of 197 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5952 | 0.5909 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.6% | 41.9% |
| Favourite won | 49.4% | 51.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 174 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 1–3 Heerenveen52·25·23
- ✓Groningen 1–2 PSV Eindhoven14·21·65
- ✗GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Telstar52·25·23
- ✗AZ Alkmaar 1–1 Ajax33·26·41
- ✓Utrecht 0–1 Feyenoord32·27·41
- ✗Fortuna Sittard 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam33·27·40
- ✓Twente 5–0 Heerenveen52·25·23
- ✗PEC Zwolle 1–2 FC Volendam61·22·17
- ✓NEC Nijmegen 4–1 Heracles66·20·14
- ✗NAC Breda 0–2 Excelsior41·27·32
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 197 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.