Newcastle vs Brighton – 2 May 2026

Premier League Gameweek 35 Sat, May 2 · 15:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 15th · 42 pts · 34 played WLLLL

3–1Full time

Brighton 6th · 50 pts · 34 played WWWDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Brighton were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Brighton. Newcastle had 6.9 days of rest, Brighton 10.8 and had to travel 468 km.

Away travel468 kmRest days6.9 · 10.8Matches / 14d2 · 2

Newcastle33%

Draw24%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.74

Newcastle39%

Draw27%

Brighton34%

Expected goals 1.40 – 1.28

Newcastle33%

Draw24%

Brighton43%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.74

Newcastle26%

Draw23%

Brighton51%

Expected goals 1.34 – 1.95

Newcastle33%

Draw25%

Brighton42%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.60

Over 2.5 63% Both score 65% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.23
Matches 162

Team strength

Newcastle

Brighton

74 L90 StrengthIn forecast 80

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 83

61 AttackIn forecast 87

61 DefenceIn forecast 85

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brighton

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Brighton

1.35 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.41

1.47 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.15

1.48 xGVia Att/Def 1.48

1.35 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.27

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.07

76% Scored inContext 79%

24% Clean sheetsContext 26%

12.97 ShotsContext 12.82

4.56 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.59

35% On target shareContext 36%

8.32 Shots in the boxContext 8.38

63% Box shareContext 67%

10% ConversionContext 11%

2.05 OffsidesContext 2.27

11.88 Shots allowedContext 11.97

4.24 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.03

3.81 BlocksContext 3.50

2.88 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

67% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 53%

451 PassesContext 470

376 Accurate passesContext 394

83% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.90 Team ratingContext 6.90

10.24 FoulsContext 12.18

12.21 Fouls sufferedContext 10.15

1.74 Yellow cardsContext 2.41

0.03 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 34 and 34 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.40

2.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.70

1.53 xGVia Att/Def 1.32

1.98 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.90

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext +0.08

90% Scored inContext 70%

10% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.30 ShotsContext 11.80

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

37% On target shareContext 43%

7.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.10

64% Box shareContext 69%

11% ConversionContext 12%

2.20 OffsidesContext 2.00

13.50 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.78

3.80 BlocksContext 3.50

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.11

60% Save rateContext 82%

52% PossessionIn forecast 54%

434 PassesContext 468

357 Accurate passesContext 387

82% Pass accuracyContext 83%

6.77 Team ratingContext 6.98

11.80 FoulsContext 13.00

11.50 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70

2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km796 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brighton

Rest10.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel468 km143 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Brighton
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 25 Apr	10.8Premier League 2025-2026, 21 Apr
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	468 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	796 km	143 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	0 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1N. Pope(G)

33D. Burn 4S. Botman 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

7Joelinton 28J. Willock 23J. Murphy

18W. Osula

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Brighton Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1B. Verbruggen(G)

24F. Kadıoğlu 21O. Boscagli 6J. van Hecke 27M. Wieffer

17C. Baleba 30P. Groß

22K. Mitoma 13J. Hinshelwood 11Y. Minteh

18D. Welbeck

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brighton Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-0.1 pp
Draw+0.1 pp
Brighton+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 1.53points per game · 17 home games

W-D-L: 8-2-7
Scored: 1.76
Conceded: 1.65

Brighton · Away 1.18points per game · 17 away games

W-D-L: 5-5-7
Scored: 1.24
Conceded: 1.29

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 18 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Brighton
Arsenal	L 0–1 AL 1–2 H	L 0–1 HL 1–2 A
Bournemouth	L 1–2 HD 0–0 A	D 1–1 HL 1–2 A
Crystal Palace	L 1–2 AW 2–0 H	L 0–1 HD 0–0 A
Sunderland	L 1–2 HL 0–1 A	W 1–0 AD 0–0 H
Chelsea	W 1–0 AD 2–2 H	W 3–0 HW 3–1 A
Manchester United	W 2–1 HL 0–1 A	L 2–4 A
Everton	L 2–3 HW 4–1 A	D 1–1 HL 0–2 A
Manchester City	L 1–2 AW 2–1 H	D 1–1 AW 2–1 H
Tottenham	W 2–1 AD 2–2 H	D 2–2 AD 2–2 H
Brentford	L 2–3 HL 1–3 A	W 2–0 AW 2–1 H
Liverpool	L 1–4 AL 2–3 H	W 2–1 HL 0–2 A
Aston Villa	L 0–2 HD 0–0 A	L 0–1 AL 3–4 H
Wolves	D 0–0 AW 1–0 H	D 1–1 A
Leeds	W 4–3 HD 0–0 A	W 3–0 H
Burnley	W 3–1 AW 2–1 H	W 2–0 AW 2–0 H
West Ham	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 AD 1–1 H
Fulham	W 2–1 H	L 1–2 AD 1–1 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 2–1 HW 2–0 A
Points	42 of 99 · 1.27 per game	47 of 99 · 1.42 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 11 meetings

2 Newcastle wins4 draws4 Brighton wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.40 Over 2.550% Both scored70% Clean sheets10% · 30%

18 Oct 2025Brighton2–1Newcastle
4 May 2025Brighton1–1Newcastle
19 Oct 2024Newcastle0–1Brighton
11 May 2024Newcastle1–1Brighton
2 Sep 2023Brighton3–1Newcastle
18 May 2023Newcastle4–1Brighton

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.35	1.41
Conceded per game	1.47	1.15
Match goals	2.82	2.56	3.24
Over 1.5	74%	82%
Over 2.5	65%	47%	63%
Over 3.5	32%	18%
Both teams scored	65%	59%	65%
Clean sheets	24%	26%
Failed to score	24%	21%
Games	34	34

	Newcastle	Brighton	Forecast
Scored per game	1.30	1.40
Conceded per game	1.70	0.70
Match goals	3.00	2.10	3.24
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	80%	40%	63%
Over 3.5	20%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	30%	65%
Clean sheets	10%	40%
Failed to score	10%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	6.24	4.71
Corners conceded	4.94	5.00
Match total	11.18	9.71	10.07
Over 8.5	76% 26/34	62% 21/34
Over 9.5	59% 20/34	59% 20/34
Over 10.5	50% 17/34	44% 15/34
Cards
Cards	1.82	2.41
Opponent cards	2.44	2.09
Match total	4.26	4.50	3.91
Over 3.5	62% 21/34	68% 23/34
Over 4.5	38% 13/34	41% 14/34

	Newcastle	Brighton	League
Corners
Corners won	4.50	4.00
Corners conceded	4.70	5.90
Match total	9.20	9.90	10.07
Over 8.5	60% 6/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 10.5	30% 3/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	2.30
Opponent cards	2.30	2.00
Match total	4.40	4.30	3.91
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 162 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.83league 3.78

Red cards0.13league 0.12

Cards 5+37%league 39%

Fouls21.8league 21.5

Penalties0.23league 0.21

Home wins40%league 42%

Newcastle14 with this referee

Record6-1-7 Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0 Pens for · against2 · 2

W13 Sep 25H · Wolves1–01
L26 Feb 25A · Liverpool0–21
L1 Feb 25H · Fulham1–24
W15 Sep 24A · Wolves2–13
L13 Jan 24H · Manchester City2–31

Brighton10 with this referee

Record3-4-3 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.5 Pens for · against2 · 3

L4 Mar 26H · Arsenal0–14
D31 Jan 26H · Everton1–11
W22 Nov 25H · Brentford2–14
D20 Sep 25H · Tottenham2–21
W14 Feb 25H · Chelsea3–01

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.