Newcastle vs Chelsea – 20 Dec 2025

Premier League Gameweek 17 Sat, Dec 20 · 12:30 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 12th · 22 pts · 16 played WWDWL

2–2Full time

Chelsea 4th · 28 pts · 16 played WDLDW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Newcastle had 5.9 days of rest, Chelsea 6.9 and had to travel 398 km.

Away travel398 kmRest days5.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2

Newcastle39%

Draw26%

Chelsea35%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.46

Newcastle39%

Draw27%

Chelsea34%

Expected goals 1.39 – 1.28

Newcastle39%

Draw26%

Chelsea35%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.41

Newcastle32%

Draw25%

Chelsea43%

Expected goals 1.37 – 1.63

Newcastle39%

Draw27%

Chelsea35%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.33

Over 2.5 57% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeAndy Madley

Cards per match 3.4
Penalties per match 0.14
Matches 123

Team strength

Newcastle

Chelsea

79 L90 StrengthIn forecast 84

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 77

61 AttackIn forecast 77

61 DefenceIn forecast 74

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Chelsea

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Chelsea

1.31 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.69

1.25 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.94

1.34 xGVia Att/Def 1.71

1.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.30

-0.03 Goals minus xGContext -0.02

75% Scored inContext 88%

31% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.19 ShotsContext 14.13

4.31 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.13

35% On target shareContext 36%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.25

58% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 12%

1.88 OffsidesContext 2.17

10.38 Shots allowedContext 10.06

3.88 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.27

3.64 BlocksContext 2.67

2.93 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.36

73% Save rateContext 72%

51% PossessionIn forecast 59%

443 PassesContext 526

368 Accurate passesContext 454

83% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.94 Team ratingContext 7.06

10.67 FoulsContext 11.63

11.63 Fouls sufferedContext 12.63

1.25 Yellow cardsContext 1.88

0.06 Red cardsContext 0.19

This league season, per match · 16 and 16 games

1.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60

1.60 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80

1.38 xGVia Att/Def 1.74

1.36 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.14

+0.32 Goals minus xGContext -0.14

90% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 60%

12.10 ShotsContext 14.20

5.20 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

43% On target shareContext 35%

8.10 Shots in the boxContext 9.60

65% Box shareContext 67%

14% ConversionContext 11%

2.60 OffsidesContext 2.14

12.40 Shots allowedContext 9.00

4.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.11

3.70 BlocksContext 2.56

3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.22

75% Save rateContext 71%

53% PossessionIn forecast 56%

459 PassesContext 501

390 Accurate passesContext 430

85% Pass accuracyContext 86%

6.91 Team ratingContext 6.99

9.25 FoulsContext 13.20

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.60

1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.70

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest5.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km33 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Chelsea

Rest6.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel398 km301 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Chelsea
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	5.9Premier League 2025-2026, 14 Dec	6.9Premier League 2025-2026, 13 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	398 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	33 km	301 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 5	1 / 2 / 5
Next matchdays after this one	6.3	7.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

32A. Ramsdale(G)

3L. Hall 5F. Schär 12M. Thiaw 67L. Miley

41J. Ramsey 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

10A. Gordon 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

+7 more reported missing outside this XI

Chelsea Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1Robert Sánchez(G)

3Marc Cucurella 23T. Chalobah 29W. Fofana 27M. Gusto

25M. Caicedo 24R. James

49A. Garnacho 10C. Palmer 7Pedro Neto

20João Pedro

+6 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Chelsea Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle-0.3 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Chelsea+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 2.00points per game · 8 home games

W-D-L: 5-1-2
Scored: 1.75
Conceded: 1.25

Chelsea · Away 1.75points per game · 8 away games

W-D-L: 4-2-2
Scored: 1.88
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 14 this season

Opponent	Newcastle	Chelsea
Sunderland	L 0–1 A	L 1–2 H
Burnley	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 A
Tottenham	D 2–2 H	W 1–0 A
Everton	W 4–1 A	W 2–0 H
Brentford	L 1–3 A	D 2–2 A
West Ham	L 1–3 A	W 5–1 A
Fulham	W 2–1 H	W 2–0 H
Brighton	L 1–2 A	L 1–3 H
Nottingham Forest	W 2–0 H	W 3–0 A
Arsenal	L 1–2 H	D 1–1 H
Bournemouth	D 0–0 A	D 0–0 A
Wolves	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 H
Leeds	D 0–0 A	L 1–3 A
Liverpool	L 2–3 H	W 2–1 H
Points	18 of 42 · 1.29 per game	27 of 42 · 1.93 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

3 Newcastle wins1 draws6 Chelsea wins

Goals per game1.10 – 1.50 Over 2.540% Both scored40% Clean sheets20% · 40%

11 May 2025Newcastle2–0Chelsea
27 Oct 2024Chelsea2–1Newcastle
11 Mar 2024Chelsea3–2Newcastle
25 Nov 2023Newcastle4–1Chelsea
28 May 2023Chelsea1–1Newcastle
12 Nov 2022Newcastle1–0Chelsea

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.31	1.69
Conceded per game	1.25	0.94
Match goals	2.56	2.63	2.99
Over 1.5	69%	81%
Over 2.5	63%	56%	57%
Over 3.5	31%	25%
Both teams scored	63%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	31%	50%
Failed to score	25%	13%
Games	16	16

	Newcastle	Chelsea	Forecast
Scored per game	1.70	1.60
Conceded per game	1.50	0.70
Match goals	3.20	2.30	2.99
Over 1.5	90%	80%
Over 2.5	80%	50%	57%
Over 3.5	40%	10%
Both teams scored	80%	40%	61%
Clean sheets	10%	60%
Failed to score	10%	10%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	6.13	5.93
Corners conceded	5.75	4.00
Match total	11.88	9.93	9.92
Over 8.5	75% 12/16	80% 12/15
Over 9.5	56% 9/16	73% 11/15
Over 10.5	50% 8/16	47% 7/15
Cards
Cards	1.38	2.13
Opponent cards	2.25	2.19
Match total	3.63	4.32	3.79
Over 3.5	44% 7/16	56% 9/16
Over 4.5	31% 5/16	50% 8/16

	Newcastle	Chelsea	League
Corners
Corners won	5.80	5.63
Corners conceded	7.50	3.25
Match total	13.30	8.88	9.92
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	63% 5/8
Over 9.5	70% 7/10	50% 4/8
Over 10.5	70% 7/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	1.70	1.80
Opponent cards	2.60	1.90
Match total	4.30	3.70	3.79
Over 3.5	60% 6/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Andy Madley 123 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.30league 3.64

Red cards0.11league 0.11

Cards 5+28%league 39%

Fouls23.0league 22.0

Penalties0.14league 0.20

Home wins48%league 49%

Newcastle8 with this referee

Record3-3-2 Cards · opp.2.9 · 2.3 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds2

L15 Feb 25A · Manchester City0–41
W4 Jan 25A · Tottenham2–14
D4 Dec 24H · Liverpool3–32
W12 Aug 23H · Aston Villa5–14
W12 Mar 23H · Wolves2–11

Chelsea13 with this referee

Record6-2-5 Cards · opp.1.5 · 2.2 Pens for · against1 · 1

L25 Oct 25H · Sunderland1–21
W23 Nov 24A · Leicester2–13
W5 May 24H · West Ham5–01
W17 Mar 24H · Leicester4–20
D17 Feb 24A · Manchester City1–13

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.