Newcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel17 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d3 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Newcastle—%
Draw—%
Sunderland—%
Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)
Forecast from 20 Nov
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Newcastle and Sunderland. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Trend
Newcastle
71%
Both teams scored
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Newcastle
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against1.60
-
Alert
Newcastle
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Defence
-
Alert
Sunderland
2.2
Goals conceded away per match
Last 5 recorded away matches
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Alert
Newcastle
2.0
Goals conceded per match
Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
-
Insight
Newcastle
−0.41
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for1.19xG against1.60
-
Alert
Sunderland
1.7
Goals conceded per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals conceded · W/D/L colours
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
NewcastleSunderland
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
71
Current StrengthIn forecast
57
61
AttackIn forecast
62
61
DefenceIn forecast
59
35
Form indexContext
56
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisSunderland
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NewcastleSunderland
1.43
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.74
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.04
+0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.65
86%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
12.29
ShotsContext
11.57
3.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.67
29%
On target shareContext
35%
7.57
Shots in the boxContext
7.29
62%
Box shareContext
62%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
2.71
OffsidesContext
2.83
17.43
Shots allowedContext
14.57
5.29
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.33
7.57
BlocksContext
4.29
3.29
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
62%
Save rateContext
46%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
430
PassesContext
400
359
Accurate passesContext
316
84%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.75
Team ratingContext
6.62
12.14
FoulsContext
11.43
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
14.14
2.71
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.14
1.40
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
1.19
xGVia Att/Def
1.66
1.60
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.67
+0.21
Goals minus xGContext
-0.56
80%
Scored inContext
70%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.40
ShotsContext
14.40
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.78
32%
On target shareContext
30%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
9.60
59%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
8%
2.44
OffsidesContext
2.33
17.50
Shots allowedContext
12.40
5.70
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.56
6.90
BlocksContext
3.90
3.90
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.00
68%
Save rateContext
52%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
452
PassesContext
395
380
Accurate passesContext
316
84%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
6.71
11.00
FoulsContext
12.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
13.60
2.20
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Newcastle
DLWLL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km936 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Form 35 · 4 pts vs 5.7 for an average club · -3.3 vs expected
Sunderland
WLLWL
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel17 km935 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 56 · 6 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · -0.1 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Newcastle |
Sunderland |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | High · 43 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | Yes |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Dec | 2.8Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 17 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 936 km | 935 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 4 | 2 / 4 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Newcastle
Last XI · not confirmed
21L. Horníček(G)
3L. Hall
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
67L. Miley
7Joelinton
6Nico González
11H. Barnes
28J. Willock
20M. Fernandez-Pardo
9Y. Wissa
Sunderland
Last XI · not confirmed
22R. Roefs(G)
17Reinildo
15O. Alderete
4K. Danso
20N. Mukiele
27N. Sadiki
34G. Xhaka
28E. Le Fée
11C. Rigg
32T. Hume
57T. Tuterov
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Newcastle
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Sunderland
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Newcastle · Home
1.25points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-1
- Scored
- 1.50
- Conceded
- 1.50
Sunderland · Away
0.25points per game · 4 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.50
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 1 this season
| Opponent | Newcastle | Sunderland |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | D 2–2 H | L 0–2 A |
| Points | 1 of 3 · 1.00 per game | 0 of 3 · 0.00 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Newcastle wins0 draws2 Sunderland wins
Goals per game0.50 – 1.50
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets0% · 50%
- 22 Mar 2026Newcastle1–2Sunderland
- 14 Dec 2025Sunderland1–0Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Newcastle | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.43 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.86 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 86% | |
| Over 2.5 | 71% | 29% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 43% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Newcastle | Sunderland | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.40 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.60 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.70 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 40% | |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 10% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Newcastle | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.57 | 4.29 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.29 | 4.14 | |
| Match total | 9.86 | 8.43 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.71 | 2.14 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.14 | 1.71 | |
| Match total | 4.85 | 3.85 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 57% 4/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Newcastle | Sunderland | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 5.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.80 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.20 | 9.49 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.60 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.40 | 4.60 | 4.17 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Newcastle7 games · scored 10 · conceded 14
3
2
0-15
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
2
3
76-90
Sunderland7 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
1
5
46-60
1
61-75
1
4
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 18
4
2
0-15
1
1
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
3
46-60
5
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
Sunderland10 games · scored 11 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
2
6
46-60
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
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