Premier League Gameweek 14 Sat, Dec 5 · 15:00 Villa Park, Birmingham
Aston Villa 12th · 8 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
Crystal Palace 14th · 7 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel163 kmRest days2.8 · 2.8Matches / 14d4 · 4
Real contextStrength only
Aston Villa—%
Draw—%
Crystal Palace—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Birmingham)

Forecast from 20 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Aston Villa and Crystal Palace. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Aston VillaCrystal Palace
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
82 Current StrengthIn forecast 64
83 AttackIn forecast 64
78 DefenceIn forecast 54
84 Form indexContext 64
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Aston Villa

Attack—
Defense risk—

Crystal Palace

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Aston VillaCrystal Palace
1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.43
1.13 xGVia Att/Def 1.35
1.67 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.06
-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.06
57% Scored inContext 57%
29% Clean sheetsContext 14%
11.86 ShotsContext 10.14
4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.71
27% On target shareContext 37%
8.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.00
64% Box shareContext 70%
8% ConversionContext 13%
1.75 OffsidesContext 3.00
15.86 Shots allowedContext 17.86
4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.14
3.83 BlocksContext 5.29
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.71
71% Save rateContext 61%
48% PossessionIn forecast 43%
410 PassesContext 404
339 Accurate passesContext 326
83% Pass accuracyContext 81%
6.72 Team ratingContext 6.70
10.71 FoulsContext 10.00
13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.14
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.29
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.60
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.52 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.66 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.86
+0.28 Goals minus xGContext +0.08
70% Scored inContext 70%
30% Clean sheetsContext 30%
13.60 ShotsContext 11.00
5.88 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90
35% On target shareContext 36%
9.10 Shots in the boxContext 7.80
65% Box shareContext 71%
13% ConversionContext 15%
1.57 OffsidesContext 2.50
15.60 Shots allowedContext 16.30
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.40
4.22 BlocksContext 4.70
3.30 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.40
73% Save rateContext 63%
46% PossessionIn forecast 45%
404 PassesContext 416
340 Accurate passesContext 341
84% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.91 Team ratingContext 6.77
10.50 FoulsContext 10.50
12.20 Fouls sufferedContext 9.70
1.70 Yellow cardsContext 1.50
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Aston Villa
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel0 km5,717 km in 14d
Schedule load53%High
Form 84 · 10 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +1.5 vs expected
  • W17 OctA · Newcastle1–01.6 xPts
  • W14 OctH · Fenerbahce6–02.0 xPts
  • D10 OctH · Brentford2–21.7 xPts
  • W19 SepA · Tottenham3–21.5 xPts
  • L12 SepH · Nottingham Forest1–21.8 xPts
Crystal Palace
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d4High congestion
Travel163 km276 km in 14d
Schedule load43%High
Form 64 · 7 pts vs 5.3 for an average club · +0.9 vs expected
  • L18 OctA · Brighton0–50.6 xPts
  • L15 OctA · Lyon2–31.3 xPts
  • W11 OctH · Nottingham Forest3–11.4 xPts
  • D20 SepA · Leeds0–00.9 xPts
  • W17 SepH · Lech Poznan4–01.9 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Aston Villa Crystal Palace
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextHigh · 53High · 43
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastYesYes
Rest dayssince last match2.8Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Dec2.8Premier League 2026-2027, 2 Dec
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km163 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways5,717 km276 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days2 / 4 / 52 / 4 / 5
Next matchdays after this one3.25.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Aston Villa Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Newcastle (A) 1–0, 17 Oct
1Z. Suzuki(G)
29A. Wan-Bissaka 5T. Mings 3V. Lindelöf 2M. Cash
35João Gomes 8B. Kamara
10E. Buendía 44J. Manzambi 47Alysson Edward
11N. Jackson
Crystal Palace Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-2-1 · vs Brighton (A) 0–5, 18 Oct
44W. Benítez(G)
21H. Ahanor 26Chris Richards 6J. Canvot
3T. Mitchell 23Q. Timber 20A. Wharton 25A. Khalaili
10Yeremy Pino 18Daichi Kamada
22J. Strand Larsen

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Aston Villa Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Crystal Palace Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Aston Villa · Home 0.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.67
Crystal Palace · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
0.75
Conceded
2.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

OpponentAston VillaCrystal Palace
Nottingham Forest L 1–2 H W 3–1 H
Brighton L 0–4 A L 0–5 A
Points0 of 6 · 0.00 per game3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 10 of 12 meetings

3 Aston Villa wins3 draws4 Crystal Palace wins
Goals per game1.10 – 2.00 Over 2.570% Both scored60% Clean sheets20% · 30%
  • 7 Jan 2026Crystal Palace0–0Aston Villa
  • 31 Aug 2025Aston Villa0–3Crystal Palace
  • 25 Feb 2025Crystal Palace4–1Aston Villa
  • 23 Nov 2024Aston Villa2–2Crystal Palace
  • 19 May 2024Crystal Palace5–0Aston Villa
  • 16 Sep 2023Aston Villa3–1Crystal Palace

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Aston VillaCrystal PalaceForecast
Scored per game 1.001.29
Conceded per game 1.572.43
Match goals 2.573.71
Over 1.5 57%86%
Over 2.5 57%71%
Over 3.5 43%71%
Both teams scored 43%57%
Clean sheets 29%14%
Failed to score 43%43%
Games77
Aston VillaCrystal PalaceForecast
Scored per game 1.801.60
Conceded per game 1.402.20
Match goals 3.203.80
Over 1.5 70%90%
Over 2.5 70%80%
Over 3.5 50%70%
Both teams scored 50%60%
Clean sheets 30%20%
Failed to score 30%30%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Aston VillaCrystal PalaceLeague
Corners
Corners won3.143.67
Corners conceded4.296.00
Match total7.439.679.49
Over 8.529% 2/750% 3/6
Over 9.514% 1/733% 2/6
Over 10.514% 1/733% 2/6
Cards
Cards2.141.43
Opponent cards3.141.57
Match total5.283.004.17
Over 3.571% 5/743% 3/7
Over 4.557% 4/729% 2/7
Aston VillaCrystal PalaceLeague
Corners
Corners won4.003.89
Corners conceded5.005.22
Match total9.009.119.49
Over 8.550% 5/1044% 4/9
Over 9.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Over 10.530% 3/1033% 3/9
Cards
Cards1.801.60
Opponent cards2.802.00
Match total4.603.604.17
Over 3.560% 6/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Aston Villa6 games · scored 7 · conceded 10
1 2 0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
1 46-60
2 61-75
2 4 76-90
Crystal Palace7 games · scored 9 · conceded 17
1 5 0-15
2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 61-75
1 3 76-90
Aston Villa9 games · scored 18 · conceded 13
3 2 0-15
1 4 16-30
5 1 31-45
1 1 46-60
5 1 61-75
3 4 76-90
Crystal Palace10 games · scored 16 · conceded 20
2 6 0-15
1 2 16-30
4 4 31-45
5 4 46-60
1 61-75
3 4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Premier League

View all fixtures →
Manchester United Coventry Dec 515:00 Newcastle Sunderland Dec 515:00 Bournemouth Hull City Dec 515:00 Everton Fulham Dec 515:00 Tottenham Arsenal Dec 515:00 Chelsea Liverpool Dec 515:00 Brentford Manchester City Dec 515:00 Leeds Ipswich Dec 515:00 Nottingham Forest Brighton Dec 515:00 Aston Villa Crystal Palace Dec 515:00