Newcastle vs Wolves – 13 Sep 2025

Premier League Gameweek 4 Sat, Sep 13 · 15:00 St. James’ Park, Newcastle upon Tyne

Newcastle 17th · 2 pts · 3 played DLD

1–0Full time

Wolves 20th · 0 pts · 3 played LLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Newcastle were clear favourites.

Newcastle were the stronger side on L90 Strength (78 vs 51). Newcastle had 13.9 days of rest, Wolves 14 and had to travel 268 km.

Away travel268 kmRest days13.9 · 14Matches / 14d1 · 1

Newcastle63%

Draw21%

Wolves16%

Expected goals 2.12 – 0.96

Newcastle62%

Draw22%

Wolves16%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.91

Newcastle63%

Draw21%

Wolves16%

Expected goals 2.11 – 0.96

Newcastle56%

Draw23%

Wolves21%

Expected goals 1.89 – 1.08

Newcastle62%

Draw22%

Wolves16%

Expected goals 1.98 – 0.91

Over 2.5 59% Both score 55% Likeliest score 2–0

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Newcastle upon Tyne)

No weather data yet

RefereeChris Kavanagh

Cards per match 4.0
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 130

Team strength

Newcastle

Wolves

78 L90 StrengthIn forecast 51

71 Current StrengthIn forecast 44

61 AttackIn forecast 41

61 DefenceIn forecast 46

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Newcastle

Attack—

Defense risk—

Wolves

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Newcastle

Wolves

0.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.67

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.67

0.96 xGVia Att/Def 0.71

0.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.90

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

33% Scored inContext 33%

67% Clean sheetsContext 0%

11.33 ShotsContext 9.00

2.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 2.67

24% On target shareContext 30%

7.00 Shots in the boxContext 5.00

62% Box shareContext 56%

6% ConversionContext 7%

— OffsidesContext 2.67

6.00 Shots allowedContext 13.00

2.67 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

2.00 BlocksContext 4.33

1.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.00

63% Save rateContext 50%

52% PossessionIn forecast 47%

415 PassesContext 408

336 Accurate passesContext 324

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.82 Team ratingContext 6.56

14.33 FoulsContext 14.67

12.67 Fouls sufferedContext 10.00

1.33 Yellow cardsContext 1.67

0.33 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games

1.40 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.80

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.10

0.88 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.47

-0.10 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

60% Scored inContext 60%

50% Clean sheetsContext 20%

14.20 ShotsContext 11.00

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

32% On target shareContext 31%

9.20 Shots in the boxContext 6.60

66% Box shareContext 58%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.50 OffsidesContext 2.14

9.60 Shots allowedContext 11.10

3.89 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.10

2.89 BlocksContext 2.78

2.78 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.88

71% Save rateContext 66%

56% PossessionIn forecast 48%

453 PassesContext 438

383 Accurate passesContext 365

85% Pass accuracyContext 83%

7.00 Team ratingContext 6.83

11.10 FoulsContext 11.50

11.60 Fouls sufferedContext 11.30

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.50

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Newcastle

Rest13.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km262 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Wolves

Rest14 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel268 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Newcastle	Wolves
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	13.9Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug	14Premier League 2025-2026, 30 Aug
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	268 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	262 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 2	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	8	7

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Newcastle Confirmed XI

4-3-3

1N. Pope(G)

21V. Livramento 33D. Burn 5F. Schär 2K. Trippier

7Joelinton 8S. Tonali 39Bruno Guimarães

11H. Barnes 27N. Woltemade 23J. Murphy

Wolves Confirmed XI

3-5-2

31S. Johnstone(G)

24Toti Gomes 15Y. Mosquera 12E. Agbadou

21R. Gomes 37L. Krejčí 8João Gomes 7André 3Hugo Bueno

11H. Hwang 14T. Arokodare

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Newcastle Absences are shown before kick-off

Wolves Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Newcastle+0.1 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Wolves+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Newcastle · Home 0.00points per game · 1 home games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 2.00
Conceded: 3.00

Wolves · Away 0.00points per game · 1 away games

W-D-L: 0-0-1
Scored: 0.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings

5 Newcastle wins4 draws1 Wolves wins

Goals per game1.70 – 0.90 Over 2.560% Both scored70% Clean sheets30% · 0%

15 Jan 2025Newcastle3–0Wolves
15 Sep 2024Wolves1–2Newcastle
2 Mar 2024Newcastle3–0Wolves
28 Oct 2023Wolves2–2Newcastle
12 Mar 2023Newcastle2–1Wolves
28 Aug 2022Wolves1–1Newcastle

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Newcastle	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	0.67
Conceded per game	1.00	2.67
Match goals	1.67	3.33	3.08
Over 1.5	33%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	59%
Over 3.5	33%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	55%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	67%	67%
Games	3	3

	Newcastle	Wolves	Forecast
Scored per game	0.67	0.67
Conceded per game	1.00	2.67
Match goals	1.67	3.33	3.08
Over 1.5	33%	67%
Over 2.5	33%	67%	59%
Over 3.5	33%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	33%	55%
Clean sheets	67%	0%
Failed to score	67%	67%
Games	3	3

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Newcastle	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	6.00	3.00
Corners conceded	3.00	5.00
Match total	9.00	8.00	9.27
Over 8.5	67% 2/3	67% 2/3
Over 9.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 10.5	0% 0/3	33% 1/3
Cards
Cards	1.67	2.00
Opponent cards	2.00	1.67
Match total	3.67	3.67	3.47
Over 3.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3
Over 4.5	33% 1/3	33% 1/3

	Newcastle	Wolves	League
Corners
Corners won	6.60	3.89
Corners conceded	4.40	4.44
Match total	11.00	8.33	9.27
Over 8.5	80% 8/10	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	60% 6/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.60
Opponent cards	2.60	1.60
Match total	4.60	3.20	3.47
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	60% 6/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Chris Kavanagh 130 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.88league 3.45

Red cards0.13league 0.10

Cards 5+36%league 39%

Fouls21.6league 22.3

Penalties0.25league 0.32

Home wins38%league 52%

Newcastle13 with this referee

Record5-1-7 Cards · opp.2.1 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 2

L26 Feb 25A · Liverpool0–21
L1 Feb 25H · Fulham1–24
W15 Sep 24A · Wolves2–13
L13 Jan 24H · Manchester City2–31
L26 Dec 23H · Nottingham Forest1–33

Wolves8 with this referee

Record0-2-6 Cards · opp.2.5 · 1.8 Pens for · against0 · 1 Reds1

D29 Dec 24A · Tottenham2–22
L20 Oct 24H · Manchester City1–24
L15 Sep 24H · Newcastle1–23
L19 May 24A · Liverpool0–22
L17 Dec 23A · West Ham0–31

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.