Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
Nice were the stronger side on L90 Strength (34 vs 20). Absences weigh more on Nice. Nice had 6.9 days of rest, Angers 6.9 and had to travel 738 km.
Away travel738 kmRest days6.9 · 6.9Matches / 14d2 · 2
Nice53%
Draw25%
Angers22%
Nice54%
Draw25%
Angers21%
Nice54%
Draw25%
Angers21%
Nice45%
Draw27%
Angers28%
Nice53%
Draw25%
Angers22%
Over 2.5 50%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceHakim Ben el Salem Hadj
- Cards per match 3.3
- Penalties per match 0.71
- Matches 7
Team strength
Nice
Angers
34
L90 StrengthIn forecast
20
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
19
26
AttackIn forecast
22
35
DefenceIn forecast
12
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisAngers
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceAngers
1.36
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.21
1.04
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.86
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.80
+0.32
Goals minus xGContext
+0.03
86%
Scored inContext
64%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
10.57
ShotsContext
8.21
3.93
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.42
37%
On target shareContext
36%
6.54
Shots in the boxContext
5.08
59%
Box shareContext
58%
13%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.36
15.79
Shots allowedContext
15.07
5.43
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.29
4.93
BlocksContext
3.36
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.00
70%
Save rateContext
76%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
407
PassesContext
381
342
Accurate passesContext
313
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.75
12.29
FoulsContext
11.21
12.21
Fouls sufferedContext
10.71
2.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.43
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.07
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
2.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.40
1.00
xGVia Att/Def
0.72
1.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.96
+0.20
Goals minus xGContext
+0.18
80%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
9.30
ShotsContext
8.40
3.56
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.11
34%
On target shareContext
33%
6.33
Shots in the boxContext
4.80
65%
Box shareContext
57%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.57
OffsidesContext
2.25
17.60
Shots allowedContext
15.00
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.10
6.20
BlocksContext
3.20
4.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.60
72%
Save rateContext
71%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
374
PassesContext
404
312
Accurate passesContext
331
84%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.68
11.50
FoulsContext
11.80
12.40
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
1.50
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km4,541 km in 14d
Schedule load10%Low
Angers
Rest6.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel738 km914 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
Angers |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 10 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov | 6.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 30 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 738 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 4,541 km | 914 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 4 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 4.2 | 5.2 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
80Y. Diouf(G)
26M. Bard
28A. Bah
33A. Mendy
2A. Abdi
8M. Sanson
24C. Vanhoutte
20T. Louchet
92J. Clauss
10S. Diop
25M. Cho
Angers
Confirmed XI
12H. Koffi(G)
3J. Ekomié
21J. Lefort
4O. Camara
2C. Arcus
10H. Abdelli
93H. Belkebla
7M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
14Y. Belkhdim
11S. Chérif
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Angers
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-1.0 pp
- Draw+0.1 pp
- Angers+0.8 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
1.86points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-1-2
- Scored
- 1.57
- Conceded
- 1.43
Angers · Away
0.71points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.57
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Nice | Angers |
|---|---|---|
| Lorient | L 1–3 A | W 2–0 H |
| Marseille | L 1–5 H | D 2–2 A |
| Metz | L 1–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Paris Saint Germain | L 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lille | W 2–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Rennes | W 2–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Lyon | W 3–2 H | L 0–1 A |
| Monaco | D 2–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Paris FC | D 1–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Stade Brestois 29 | L 1–4 A | L 0–2 H |
| Auxerre | W 3–1 H | W 2–0 H |
| Toulouse | L 0–1 H | W 1–0 A |
| Points | 14 of 36 · 1.17 per game | 16 of 36 · 1.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings
4 Nice wins1 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game1.67 – 0.83
Over 2.550%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets17% · 17%
- 20 Apr 2025Nice2–1Angers
- 1 Sep 2024Angers1–4Nice
- 2 Apr 2023Angers1–1Nice
- 18 Sep 2022Nice0–1Angers
- 20 Feb 2022Nice1–0Angers
- 31 Oct 2021Angers1–2Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.36 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.86 | 1.21 | |
| Match goals | 3.21 | 2.07 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 79% | 64% | |
| Over 2.5 | 64% | 21% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 14% | |
| Both teams scored | 71% | 36% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 36% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Nice | Angers | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.20 | 1.40 | |
| Match goals | 3.40 | 2.30 | 2.67 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 50% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.69 | 3.69 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.31 | 5.38 | |
| Match total | 11.00 | 9.07 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 92% 12/13 | 54% 7/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 77% 10/13 | 46% 6/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 46% 6/13 | 23% 3/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.29 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 1.14 | |
| Match total | 4.29 | 2.64 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 71% 10/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 43% 6/14 | 0% 0/14 | |
| Nice | Angers | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.50 | 4.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 7.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 10.70 | 9.30 | 9.34 |
| Over 8.5 | 90% 9/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 1.50 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.30 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 2.80 | 4.08 |
| Over 3.5 | 70% 7/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Hakim Ben el Salem Hadj France · 7 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.00league 3.73
Red cards0.29league 0.32
Cards 5+14%league 37%
Fouls22.7league 24.0
Penalties0.71league 0.47
Home wins57%league 51%
Nice1 with this referee
Record1-0-0
Cards · opp.0.0 · 4.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- W17 May 25H · Stade Brestois 296–00
Angers2 with this referee
Record0-0-2
Cards · opp.0.5 · 2.5
Pens for · against0 · 1
- L22 Aug 25A · Paris Saint Germain0–10
- L27 Apr 25H · Lille0–21
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice14 games · scored 19 · conceded 26
3
4
0-15
4
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
3
5
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
7
76-90
Angers14 games · scored 12 · conceded 17
1
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
31-45
2
3
46-60
1
7
61-75
5
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 12 · conceded 22
2
3
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
6
31-45
1
4
46-60
1
4
61-75
1
3
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 9 · conceded 14
0-15
3
1
16-30
4
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
7
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
