Nice vs AS Roma – 24 Sep 2025

UEFA Europa League Matchday 1 Wed, Sep 24 · 20:00 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice

1–2Full time

AS Roma

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

AS Roma were slight favourites.

AS Roma were the stronger side on L90 Strength (70 vs 42). Nice had 4.1 days of rest, AS Roma 3.4 and had to travel 473 km.

Away travel473 kmRest days4.1 · 3.4Matches / 14d2 · 2

Nice27%

Draw26%

AS Roma47%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.65

Nice27%

Draw26%

AS Roma46%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Nice27%

Draw26%

AS Roma47%

Expected goals 1.20 – 1.65

Nice21%

Draw24%

AS Roma55%

Expected goals 1.07 – 1.85

Nice27%

Draw26%

AS Roma46%

Expected goals 1.14 – 1.57

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainGuillermo Cuadra Fernandez

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.39
Matches 28

Team strength

Nice

AS Roma

42 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 71

26 AttackIn forecast 72

35 DefenceIn forecast 75

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

AS Roma

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

AS Roma

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20

1.50 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.40

1.43 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.28 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.96

-0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.04

60% Scored inContext 90%

30% Clean sheetsContext 70%

12.60 ShotsContext 13.50

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.80

31% On target shareContext 36%

7.80 Shots in the boxContext 9.22

61% Box shareContext 64%

10% ConversionContext 9%

2.86 OffsidesContext 1.50

12.70 Shots allowedContext 11.10

4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.00

3.50 BlocksContext 2.86

2.90 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.60

66% Save rateContext 87%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

450 PassesContext 457

383 Accurate passesContext 389

85% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 7.04

12.60 FoulsContext 11.60

13.10 Fouls sufferedContext 13.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 1.40

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest4.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km2,089 km in 14d

Schedule load5%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

AS Roma

Rest3.4 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel473 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	AS Roma
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 5	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	4.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 20 Sep	3.4Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	473 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,089 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 3	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	3.8	3.8

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

3-5-2

80Y. Diouf(G)

4Dante 28A. Bah 33A. Mendy

26M. Bard 8M. Sanson 24C. Vanhoutte 6H. Boudaoui 20T. Louchet

7J. Boga 90Kevin Carlos

AS Roma Confirmed XI

3-4-2-1

99M. Svilar(G)

5O. Ndicka 23G. Mancini 19M. Çelik

12K. Tsimikas 17K. Koné 8N. El Aynaoui 2D. Rensch

92S. El Shaarawy 18M. Soulé

9A. Dovbyk

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Absences are shown before kick-off

AS Roma Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
AS Roma+0.0 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home No home games yet this season.

AS Roma · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.84
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Nice	AS Roma	Forecast
Scored per game	1.20	0.75
Conceded per game	1.80	0.25
Match goals	3.00	1.00	2.84
Over 1.5	60%	0%
Over 2.5	60%	0%	54%
Over 3.5	60%	0%
Both teams scored	60%	0%	57%
Clean sheets	20%	75%
Failed to score	20%	25%
Games	5	4

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	9.50
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	4.50
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Nice	AS Roma	League
Corners
Corners won	5.63	4.70
Corners conceded	3.75	3.80
Match total	9.38	8.50	9.50
Over 8.5	63% 5/8	50% 5/10
Over 9.5	38% 3/8	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	38% 3/8	30% 3/10
Cards
Cards	2.10	1.40
Opponent cards	1.70	1.80
Match total	3.80	3.20	4.50
Over 3.5	70% 7/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	20% 2/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Guillermo Cuadra Fernandez Spain · 28 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.43league 4.50

Red cards0.32league 0.00

Cards 5+57%league 50%

Fouls26.0league 32.0

Penalties0.39league 0.00

Home wins50%league 50%

Nice

No previous matches with this referee.

AS Roma

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.