Nice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nice were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Nice. Nice had 5.1 days of rest, GO Ahead Eagles 5.2 and had to travel 954 km.
Away travel954 kmRest days5.1 · 5.2Matches / 14d1 · 2
Nice45%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles29%
Nice46%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles27%
Nice46%
Draw26%
GO Ahead Eagles28%
Nice37%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles36%
Nice45%
Draw27%
GO Ahead Eagles29%
Over 2.5 51%
Both score 55%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nice)
No weather data yet
RefereeOleksiy Derevinskyi
- Cards per match 4.1
- Penalties per match 0.18
- Matches 34
Team strength
Nice
GO Ahead Eagles
28
L90 StrengthIn forecast
25
27
Current StrengthIn forecast
24
26
AttackIn forecast
29
35
DefenceIn forecast
17
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisGO Ahead Eagles
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
NiceGO Ahead Eagles
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.83
2.17
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.83
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
0.83
1.31
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.07
-0.51
Goals minus xGContext
+0.00
67%
Scored inContext
50%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
9.83
ShotsContext
8.33
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
25%
On target shareContext
42%
6.67
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
67%
Box shareContext
65%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.60
14.00
Shots allowedContext
18.00
4.83
On target allowedVia Att/Def
7.33
4.67
BlocksContext
5.00
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
5.50
62%
Save rateContext
75%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
373
PassesContext
412
303
Accurate passesContext
344
81%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.62
Team ratingContext
6.86
10.33
FoulsContext
10.17
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
8.20
1.83
Yellow cardsContext
1.83
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
2.60
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.20
1.26
xGVia Att/Def
0.91
1.64
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.08
-0.66
Goals minus xGContext
+0.49
60%
Scored inContext
80%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
12.40
ShotsContext
9.50
4.22
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.50
31%
On target shareContext
47%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.60
68%
Box shareContext
61%
5%
ConversionContext
15%
1.63
OffsidesContext
1.90
12.20
Shots allowedContext
17.70
5.80
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.50
2.60
BlocksContext
4.70
3.75
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.80
57%
Save rateContext
74%
50%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
455
PassesContext
424
390
Accurate passesContext
345
86%
Pass accuracyContext
81%
6.58
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.10
FoulsContext
9.60
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
8.30
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nice
Rest5.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km937 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
GO Ahead Eagles
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel954 km175 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nice |
GO Ahead Eagles |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 17 Jan | 5.2Eredivisie 2025-2026, 17 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 954 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 937 km | 175 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 2 | 1 / 2 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nice
Confirmed XI
31M. Dupé(G)
2A. Abdi
36Brad-Hamilton Mantsounga
28A. Bah
37Kojo Peprah Oppong
99S. Abdul Samed
24C. Vanhoutte
47Tiago Gouveia
20T. Louchet
25M. Cho
90Kevin Carlos
GO Ahead Eagles
Confirmed XI
22J. De Busser(G)
5D. James
4J. Kramer
21M. Meulensteen
2M. Deijl
6C. Twigt
8H. Linthorst
17M. Suray
7J. Breum
11O. Sivertsen
16V. Edvardsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nice
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.05 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
GO Ahead Eagles
Scores -0.03 · concedes 0.00 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nice-1.4 pp
- Draw+0.2 pp
- GO Ahead Eagles+1.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Nice · Home
0.00points per game · 3 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.67
- Conceded
- 2.00
GO Ahead Eagles · Away
1.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-2
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 1.67
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nice | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 0.83 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.17 | 1.83 | |
| Match goals | 2.83 | 2.67 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 83% | 83% | |
| Over 2.5 | 83% | 67% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 17% | 17% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 50% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 50% | |
| Games | 6 | 6 |
| Nice | GO Ahead Eagles | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.73 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 51% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% | 55% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nice | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.67 | 3.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.33 | 6.17 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 9.17 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 33% 2/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 9.5 | 0% 0/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/6 | 17% 1/6 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.83 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 1.83 | |
| Match total | 4.50 | 3.66 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 83% 5/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 3/6 | 33% 2/6 | |
| Nice | GO Ahead Eagles | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 3.80 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.20 | 5.20 | |
| Match total | 9.40 | 9.00 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.50 | 1.40 | |
| Match total | 3.70 | 3.60 | 4.35 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Oleksiy Derevinskyi 34 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.85league 4.12
Red cards0.21league 0.21
Cards 5+41%league 42%
Fouls21.4league 24.2
Penalties0.18league 0.36
Home wins47%league 49%
NiceNo previous matches with this referee.
GO Ahead EaglesNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nice6 games · scored 4 · conceded 13
3
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles6 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
1
4
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 6 · conceded 26
1
5
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
8
31-45
2
6
46-60
1
3
61-75
2
76-90
GO Ahead Eagles10 games · scored 14 · conceded 22
3
5
0-15
3
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
2
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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