Nice vs Stade Brestois 29 – 1 Feb 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 20 Sun, Feb 1 · 16:15 Allianz Riviera, Nice

Nice 14th · 21 pts · 19 played LLDLW

2–2Full time

Stade Brestois 29 12th · 22 pts · 19 played WLWLL

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Nice. Nice had 2.8 days of rest, Stade Brestois 29 7 and had to travel 1,044 km.

Away travel1,044 kmRest days2.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 2

Nice36%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2937%

Expected goals 1.31 – 1.34

Nice40%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2933%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Nice38%

Draw28%

Stade Brestois 2934%

Expected goals 1.33 – 1.26

Nice29%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2944%

Expected goals 1.16 – 1.50

Nice36%

Draw27%

Stade Brestois 2937%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.39

Over 2.5 49% Both score 54% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nice)

No weather data yet

Referee · FranceStephanie Frappart

Cards per match 3.9
Penalties per match 0.25
Matches 80

Team strength

Nice

Stade Brestois 29

31 L90 StrengthIn forecast 36

27 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

26 AttackIn forecast 47

35 DefenceIn forecast 36

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nice

Attack—

Defense risk—

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nice

Stade Brestois 29

1.32 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.26

1.89 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.63

1.14 xGVia Att/Def 1.34

1.71 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.26

+0.18 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

79% Scored inContext 63%

11% Clean sheetsContext 26%

11.05 ShotsContext 11.58

4.05 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.95

37% On target shareContext 34%

7.11 Shots in the boxContext 7.32

61% Box shareContext 64%

12% ConversionContext 11%

1.88 OffsidesContext 1.69

15.37 Shots allowedContext 11.79

5.53 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.56

4.47 BlocksContext 3.28

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.89

68% Save rateContext 63%

48% PossessionIn forecast 44%

420 PassesContext 378

352 Accurate passesContext 300

84% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.77

12.47 FoulsContext 13.21

11.95 Fouls sufferedContext 11.37

2.11 Yellow cardsContext 1.74

0.05 Red cardsContext 0.16

This league season, per match · 19 and 19 games

1.00 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.40

1.27 xGVia Att/Def 1.08

1.47 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.12

-0.27 Goals minus xGContext -0.08

50% Scored inContext 60%

0% Clean sheetsContext 30%

12.40 ShotsContext 10.30

4.11 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.90

30% On target shareContext 38%

8.50 Shots in the boxContext 6.40

69% Box shareContext 62%

8% ConversionContext 10%

1.71 OffsidesContext 1.71

14.00 Shots allowedContext 11.00

5.60 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.90

3.00 BlocksContext 2.80

3.89 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.50

66% Save rateContext 64%

47% PossessionIn forecast 45%

424 PassesContext 396

351 Accurate passesContext 318

83% Pass accuracyContext 80%

6.72 Team ratingContext 6.72

11.60 FoulsContext 14.20

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 11.70

2.10 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.20

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nice

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km4,674 km in 14d

Schedule load33%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Stade Brestois 29

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel1,044 km1,543 km in 14d

Schedule load17%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nice	Stade Brestois 29
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 33	Low · 17
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 29 Jan	7Ligue 1 2025-2026, 25 Jan
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	1,044 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	4,674 km	1,543 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 2 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6.9	6.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nice Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

31M. Dupé(G)

2A. Abdi 4Dante 37Kojo Peprah Oppong 92J. Clauss

99S. Abdul Samed 24C. Vanhoutte

10S. Diop 8M. Sanson 25M. Cho

11S. Wahi

+8 more reported missing outside this XI

Stade Brestois 29 Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

30G. Coudert(G)

27D. Guindo 44S. Coulibaly 5B. Chardonnet 77K. Lala

8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard

14R. Labeau-Lascary 23K. Doumbia 10R. Del Castillo

19L. Ajorque

+2 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nice Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Stade Brestois 29 Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nice-2.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Stade Brestois 29+2.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Nice · Home 1.56points per game · 9 home games

W-D-L: 4-2-3
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Stade Brestois 29 · Away 0.78points per game · 9 away games

W-D-L: 2-1-6
Scored: 1.11
Conceded: 2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 16 this season

Opponent	Nice	Stade Brestois 29
Nantes	W 4–1 AW 1–0 H	D 0–0 H
Toulouse	L 1–5 AL 0–1 H	L 0–2 HL 0–2 A
Strasbourg	D 1–1 H	W 2–1 A
Lens	L 0–2 A	L 1–3 A
Angers	L 0–1 H	W 2–0 A
Lorient	L 1–3 A	D 3–3 A
Marseille	L 1–5 H	L 0–3 A
Metz	L 1–2 A	W 3–2 H
Paris Saint Germain	L 0–1 A	L 0–3 H
Lille	W 2–0 H	D 3–3 H
Rennes	W 2–1 A	L 1–3 A
Lyon	W 3–2 H	L 1–2 AD 0–0 H
Monaco	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Paris FC	D 1–1 H	L 1–2 H
LE Havre	L 1–3 A	L 0–1 A
Auxerre	W 3–1 H	W 2–0 H
Points	21 of 54 · 1.17 per game	19 of 54 · 1.06 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings

5 Nice wins2 draws2 Stade Brestois 29 wins

Goals per game1.56 – 0.67 Over 2.544% Both scored22% Clean sheets67% · 33%

20 Sep 2025Stade Brestois 294–1Nice
17 May 2025Nice6–0Stade Brestois 29
2 Nov 2024Stade Brestois 290–1Nice
4 Feb 2024Stade Brestois 290–0Nice
1 Oct 2023Nice0–0Stade Brestois 29
16 Apr 2023Stade Brestois 291–0Nice

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nice	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.32	1.26
Conceded per game	1.89	1.63
Match goals	3.21	2.89	2.64
Over 1.5	79%	79%
Over 2.5	58%	58%	49%
Over 3.5	47%	32%
Both teams scored	68%	47%	54%
Clean sheets	11%	26%
Failed to score	21%	37%
Games	19	19

	Nice	Stade Brestois 29	Forecast
Scored per game	1.00	1.00
Conceded per game	1.90	1.40
Match goals	2.90	2.40	2.64
Over 1.5	70%	70%
Over 2.5	50%	50%	49%
Over 3.5	40%	20%
Both teams scored	50%	40%	54%
Clean sheets	0%	30%
Failed to score	50%	40%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nice	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	4.67	4.59
Corners conceded	5.67	4.71
Match total	10.34	9.30	9.16
Over 8.5	78% 14/18	41% 7/17
Over 9.5	67% 12/18	41% 7/17
Over 10.5	44% 8/18	41% 7/17
Cards
Cards	2.21	1.89
Opponent cards	1.79	1.68
Match total	4.00	3.57	3.96
Over 3.5	58% 11/19	47% 9/19
Over 4.5	37% 7/19	37% 7/19

	Nice	Stade Brestois 29	League
Corners
Corners won	5.20	4.88
Corners conceded	4.60	3.75
Match total	9.80	8.63	9.16
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Over 9.5	50% 5/10	38% 3/8
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	38% 3/8
Cards
Cards	2.20	2.20
Opponent cards	1.50	1.80
Match total	3.70	4.00	3.96
Over 3.5	40% 4/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	50% 5/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Stephanie Frappart France · 80 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.66league 3.63

Red cards0.24league 0.31

Cards 5+31%league 35%

Fouls24.7league 24.3

Penalties0.25league 0.43

Home wins50%league 49%

Nice7 with this referee

Record5-1-1 Cards · opp.2.7 · 1.0 Pens for · against1 · 1 Reds4

L9 Nov 25A · Metz1–24
W16 Feb 25A · LE Havre3–12
W27 Jan 24H · Metz1–01
W10 Feb 23H · Ajaccio3–01
D26 Feb 22A · Strasbourg0–03

Stade Brestois 297 with this referee

Record2-1-4 Cards · opp.2.3 · 2.6 Pens for · against0 · 0 Reds1

L27 Apr 25A · Marseille1–43
L9 Mar 24A · Lens0–12
D11 Feb 24A · Clermont Foot1–15
W27 May 23A · Marseille2–12
W2 Apr 23H · Toulouse3–12

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.