Nottingham Forest vs Brentford – 17 Aug 2025

Premier League Gameweek 1 Sun, Aug 17 · 14:00 The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

Nottingham Forest

3–1Full time

Brentford

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.

The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Brentford. Nottingham Forest had ? days of rest, Brentford ? and had to travel 173 km.

Away travel173 kmMatches / 14d0 · 0

Nottingham Forest45%

Draw26%

Brentford29%

Expected goals 1.58 – 1.24

Nottingham Forest43%

Draw27%

Brentford30%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.21

Nottingham Forest43%

Draw26%

Brentford31%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.25

Nottingham Forest37%

Draw27%

Brentford36%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.39

Nottingham Forest45%

Draw26%

Brentford29%

Expected goals 1.54 – 1.20

Over 2.5 54% Both score 57% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)

No weather data yet

RefereePeter Bankes

Cards per match 4.2
Penalties per match 0.13
Matches 100

Team strength

Nottingham Forest

Brentford

69 L90 StrengthIn forecast 70

70 Current StrengthIn forecast 75

68 AttackIn forecast 73

74 DefenceIn forecast 73

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Nottingham Forest

Attack—

Defense risk—

Brentford

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Nottingham Forest

Brentford

— Goals scoredVia Att/Def —

— Goals concededVia Att/Def —

— xGVia Att/Def —

— xG allowedVia Att/Def —

— Goals minus xGContext —

— Scored inContext —

— Clean sheetsContext —

— ShotsContext —

— Shots on targetVia Att/Def —

— On target shareContext —

— Shots in the boxContext —

— Box shareContext —

— ConversionContext —

— OffsidesContext —

— Shots allowedContext —

— On target allowedVia Att/Def —

— BlocksContext —

— Goalkeeper savesContext —

— Save rateContext —

— PossessionIn forecast —

— PassesContext —

— Accurate passesContext —

— Pass accuracyContext —

— Team ratingContext —

— FoulsContext —

— Fouls sufferedContext —

— Yellow cardsContext —

— Red cardsContext —

This league season, per match

1.30 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30

1.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.59

1.58 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.19

+0.19 Goals minus xGContext +0.21

70% Scored inContext 90%

10% Clean sheetsContext 30%

11.40 ShotsContext 11.10

4.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.50

35% On target shareContext 41%

7.10 Shots in the boxContext 10.00

61% Box shareContext 83%

11% ConversionContext 16%

2.50 OffsidesContext 1.60

14.80 Shots allowedContext 15.90

4.70 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.80

4.22 BlocksContext 5.60

3.10 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.60

66% Save rateContext 75%

45% PossessionIn forecast 46%

355 PassesContext 367

283 Accurate passesContext 290

80% Pass accuracyContext 79%

7.00 Team ratingContext 7.05

10.70 FoulsContext 9.90

10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 9.60

2.60 Yellow cardsContext 2.10

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Nottingham Forest

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel0 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Brentford

Rest—since last match

Matches / 14d0all competitions

Travel173 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Nottingham Forest	Brentford
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	—	—
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	173 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	0 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 0 / 0	0 / 0 / 0
Next matchdays after this one	7	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Nottingham Forest Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

26M. Sels(G)

3N. Williams 5Murillo 31N. Milenković 34T. Aina

8E. Anderson 6I. Sangaré

7C. Hudson-Odoi 10M. Gibbs-White 14D. Ndoye

11C. Wood

+1 more reported missing outside this XI

Brentford Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1C. Kelleher(G)

3R. Henry 4S. van den Berg 22N. Collins 33M. Kayode

8M. Jensen 18Y. Yarmoliuk

14Fábio Carvalho 17A. Milambo 23K. Lewis-Potter

9Thiago

+5 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Nottingham Forest Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Brentford Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Nottingham Forest+1.7 pp
Draw-0.4 pp
Brentford-1.3 pp

Home / Away this season

Nottingham Forest · Home No home games yet this season.

Brentford · Away No away games yet this season.

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head last 6 of 6 meetings

1 Nottingham Forest wins2 draws3 Brentford wins

Goals per game1.33 – 1.67 Over 2.550% Both scored67% Clean sheets17% · 17%

1 May 2025Nottingham Forest0–2Brentford
21 Dec 2024Brentford0–2Nottingham Forest
20 Jan 2024Brentford3–2Nottingham Forest
1 Oct 2023Nottingham Forest1–1Brentford
29 Apr 2023Brentford2–1Nottingham Forest
5 Nov 2022Nottingham Forest2–2Brentford

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Nottingham Forest	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.83
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

	Nottingham Forest	Brentford	Forecast
Scored per game	—	—
Conceded per game	—	—
Match goals	—	—	2.83
Over 1.5	—	—
Over 2.5	—	—	54%
Over 3.5	—	—
Both teams scored	—	—	57%
Clean sheets	—	—
Failed to score	—	—
Games	0	0

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Nottingham Forest	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	—	—
Corners conceded	—	—
Match total	—	—	10.17
Over 8.5	—	—
Over 9.5	—	—
Over 10.5	—	—
Cards
Cards	—	—
Opponent cards	—	—
Match total	—	—	2.67
Over 3.5	—	—
Over 4.5	—	—

	Nottingham Forest	Brentford	League
Corners
Corners won	3.80	4.40
Corners conceded	6.00	5.70
Match total	9.80	10.10	10.17
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	70% 7/10
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	40% 4/10
Cards
Cards	2.60	2.10
Opponent cards	2.80	2.50
Match total	5.40	4.60	2.67
Over 3.5	80% 8/10	60% 6/10
Over 4.5	50% 5/10	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Peter Bankes 100 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.08league 2.50

Red cards0.10league 0.17

Cards 5+44%league 17%

Fouls21.3league 22.0

Penalties0.13league 0.17

Home wins47%league 50%

Nottingham Forest8 with this referee

Record6-1-1 Cards · opp.2.1 · 2.3 Pens for · against0 · 0

W21 Apr 25A · Tottenham2–14
W6 Jan 25A · Wolves3–02
W2 Nov 24H · West Ham3–01
W18 Aug 23H · Sheffield Utd2–12
L29 Apr 23A · Brentford1–22

Brentford13 with this referee

Record3-4-6 Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.9 Pens for · against2 · 0

L2 Apr 25A · Newcastle1–21
L1 Jan 25H · Arsenal1–31
L15 Dec 24A · Chelsea1–22
L6 Dec 23A · Brighton1–21
D26 Aug 23H · Crystal Palace1–10

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.