Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nottingham Forest were clear favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (75 vs 46). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Coventry. Nottingham Forest had 7.1 days of rest, Coventry 6.1 and had to travel 66 km. Conditions were neutral.
Away travel66 kmRest days7.1 · 6.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Nottingham Forest62%
Draw21%
Coventry17%
Nottingham Forest63%
Draw21%
Coventry16%
Nottingham Forest61%
Draw22%
Coventry17%
Nottingham Forest54%
Draw24%
Coventry22%
Nottingham Forest62%
Draw21%
Coventry17%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
20°COvercast
- Precipitation 0.0 mm
- Wind 18 km/h
- Humidity 52%
RefereeJarred Gillett
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.22
- Matches 113
Team strength
Nottingham Forest
Coventry
75
L90 StrengthIn forecast
46
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
68
AttackIn forecast
47
74
DefenceIn forecast
59
61
Form indexContext
21
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisCoventry
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestCoventry
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.00
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.50
1.54
xGVia Att/Def
1.05
1.03
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.88
-0.54
Goals minus xGContext
-1.05
50%
Scored inContext
0%
25%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
14.50
ShotsContext
10.25
3.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.25
24%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.00
62%
Box shareContext
60%
7%
ConversionContext
0%
3.00
OffsidesContext
2.33
10.50
Shots allowedContext
15.75
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
3.75
BlocksContext
6.33
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.75
75%
Save rateContext
37%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
40%
343
PassesContext
350
266
Accurate passesContext
272
78%
Pass accuracyContext
78%
6.94
Team ratingContext
6.64
15.75
FoulsContext
12.50
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
10.00
2.75
Yellow cardsContext
1.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.50
xGVia Att/Def
1.33
1.65
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.30
Goals minus xGContext
-0.03
70%
Scored inContext
40%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
12.30
ShotsContext
12.30
4.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.40
33%
On target shareContext
28%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.60
68%
Box shareContext
66%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.56
15.20
Shots allowedContext
12.00
5.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
5.40
BlocksContext
4.22
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.89
73%
Save rateContext
50%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
373
PassesContext
450
300
Accurate passesContext
374
80%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.91
12.20
FoulsContext
9.90
11.70
Fouls sufferedContext
11.80
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
0.90
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
LDDW
Rest7.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km146 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 61 · 5 pts vs 3.8 for an average club · -0.4 vs expected
Coventry
LLLL
Rest6.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel66 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 21 · 0 pts vs 3.7 for an average club · -3.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Coventry |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.1Premier League 2026-2027, 12 Sep | 6.1Premier League 2026-2027, 13 Sep |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 66 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 146 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 21.9 | 23.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
5Murillo
2O. Diomande
23Jair
3N. Williams
21X. Schlager
24J. McAtee
27D. Muñoz
14D. Ndoye
10M. Gibbs-White
19L. Delap
Coventry
Confirmed XI
19C. Rushworth(G)
2E. Pinnock
4B. Thomas
12S. Mfuni
3J. Dasilva
6M. Grimes
16O. Onyeka
8C. Yirenkyi
10E. Mason-Clark
5J. Rudoni
23S. Thomas-Asante
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Absences are shown before kick-off
Coventry
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+0.5 pp
- Draw-0.3 pp
- Coventry-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
0.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-1-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Coventry · Away
0.00points per game · 2 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-2
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws1 Coventry wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 6 Apr 2022Nottingham Forest2–0Coventry
- 8 Aug 2021Coventry2–1Nottingham Forest
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.50 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 25% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 25% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 100% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | Coventry | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.00 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 2.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.50 | 2.85 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 25% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 0% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 100% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.75 | 4.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.25 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.75 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 25% 1/4 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 25% 1/4 | 0% 0/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.75 | 1.25 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.25 | 1.50 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 2.75 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Coventry | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.30 | 4.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 3.22 | |
| Match total | 8.80 | 7.33 | 9.48 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 5/10 | 22% 2/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 0% 0/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.80 | 1.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.60 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 3.40 | 2.90 | 4.07 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Jarred Gillett 113 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.70league 3.87
Red cards0.09league 0.13
Cards 5+37%league 42%
Fouls20.2league 22.9
Penalties0.22league 0.20
Home wins37%league 38%
Nottingham Forest9 with this referee
Record5-0-4
Cards · opp.1.7 · 1.8
Pens for · against2 · 1
- W9 Nov 25H · Leeds3–12
- W1 Apr 25H · Manchester United1–01
- L23 Feb 25A · Newcastle3–44
- L15 Dec 23H · Tottenham0–22
- W5 Nov 23H · Aston Villa2–01
CoventryNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest4 games · scored 4 · conceded 4
0-15
1
16-30
31-45
1
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Coventry4 games · scored 0 · conceded 10
1
0-15
2
16-30
1
31-45
2
46-60
1
61-75
3
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
4
46-60
2
2
61-75
3
6
76-90
Coventry10 games · scored 13 · conceded 13
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
1
31-45
3
3
46-60
2
61-75
6
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
