Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (73 vs 59). Absences weigh more on Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 5.3 days of rest, FC Porto 17.9 and had to travel 1,427 km.
Away travel1,427 kmRest days5.3 · 17.9Matches / 14d1 · 0
Nottingham Forest34%
Draw26%
FC Porto40%
Nottingham Forest34%
Draw27%
FC Porto38%
Nottingham Forest34%
Draw26%
FC Porto39%
Nottingham Forest27%
Draw25%
FC Porto48%
Nottingham Forest34%
Draw27%
FC Porto39%
Over 2.5 54%
Both score 58%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
Referee · RomaniaRadu Marian Petrescu
- Cards per match 3.8
- Penalties per match 0.00
- Matches 5
Team strength
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
59
L90 StrengthIn forecast
73
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
68
AttackIn forecast
74
74
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestFC Porto
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.50
2.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.50
2.60
xGVia Att/Def
1.91
1.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.60
Goals minus xGContext
-0.41
100%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
50%
19.00
ShotsContext
16.00
7.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.50
40%
On target shareContext
22%
13.00
Shots in the boxContext
10.00
70%
Box shareContext
62%
11%
ConversionContext
9%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.50
8.50
Shots allowedContext
11.00
4.50
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.50
1.50
BlocksContext
3.50
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.50
33%
Save rateContext
60%
52%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
430
PassesContext
446
370
Accurate passesContext
374
86%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.93
15.00
FoulsContext
9.00
15.50
Fouls sufferedContext
11.00
2.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.00
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.90
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.20
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.20
1.43
xGVia Att/Def
1.90
1.71
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.53
-0.53
Goals minus xGContext
+0.30
50%
Scored inContext
90%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
80%
13.00
ShotsContext
15.10
4.50
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.20
35%
On target shareContext
34%
8.80
Shots in the boxContext
10.10
69%
Box shareContext
67%
7%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.88
12.10
Shots allowedContext
9.40
5.20
On target allowedVia Att/Def
1.89
3.38
BlocksContext
3.30
3.10
Goalkeeper savesContext
1.56
60%
Save rateContext
82%
55%
PossessionIn forecast
55%
484
PassesContext
442
417
Accurate passesContext
378
86%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.70
Team ratingContext
7.02
12.30
FoulsContext
12.70
12.10
Fouls sufferedContext
9.90
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest5.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
FC Porto
Rest17.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,427 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.3Premier League 2025-2026, 18 Oct | 17.9Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 5 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,427 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 4.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
35O. Zinchenko
5Murillo
31N. Milenković
3N. Williams
12Douglas Luiz
8E. Anderson
7C. Hudson-Odoi
10M. Gibbs-White
14D. Ndoye
19Igor Jesus
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
74Francisco Moura
4J. Kiwior
5J. Bednarek
20Alberto Baio
13P. Rosario
22A. Varela
8V. Froholdt
17Borja Sainz
9Samu Omorodion
11Pepê
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-0.8 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FC Porto+1.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 1.00
- Conceded
- 0.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 1.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.50 | 0.50 | |
| Match goals | 4.50 | 2.00 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 100% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 100% | 50% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 100% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 100% | 50% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 50% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 0% | |
| Games | 2 | 2 |
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.90 | 2.20 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 0.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.90 | 2.40 | 2.84 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 60% | 54% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 20% | 58% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 80% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.50 | 6.50 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.50 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 12.00 | 9.00 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 1/2 | 50% 1/2 | |
| Over 10.5 | 50% 1/2 | 0% 0/2 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.00 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.50 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Over 4.5 | 100% 2/2 | 100% 2/2 | |
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.10 | 6.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.00 | 3.10 | |
| Match total | 10.10 | 9.20 | 8.98 |
| Over 8.5 | 70% 7/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.80 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.60 | 4.20 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Radu Marian Petrescu Romania · 5 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.60league 4.09
Red cards0.20league 0.11
Cards 5+40%league 39%
Fouls27.0league 25.2
Penalties0.00league 0.36
Home wins20%league 45%
Nottingham ForestNo previous matches with this referee.
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest2 games · scored 4 · conceded 5
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
FC Porto2 games · scored 3 · conceded 1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 9 · conceded 20
2
1
0-15
3
3
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
4
46-60
61-75
1
9
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 22 · conceded 2
5
0-15
3
16-30
3
1
31-45
4
46-60
3
1
61-75
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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