Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
6th · 4 pts · 3 played
LWD
First leg1–1
1–0Full time
FC Porto
3rd · 7 pts · 3 played
WWD
Our take
It was too close to call.
FC Porto were the stronger side on L90 Strength (80 vs 69). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 4.3 days of rest, FC Porto 4 and had to travel 1,427 km.
Away travel1,427 kmRest days4.3 · 4Matches / 14d2 · 3
Nottingham Forest35%
Draw28%
FC Porto37%
Nottingham Forest35%
Draw27%
FC Porto38%
Nottingham Forest36%
Draw28%
FC Porto36%
Nottingham Forest29%
Draw27%
FC Porto44%
Nottingham Forest35%
Draw28%
FC Porto37%
Over 2.5 48%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
Referee · NetherlandsDanny Makkelie
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 114
Team strength
Nottingham ForestFC Porto
69
L90 StrengthIn forecast
80
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
80
68
AttackIn forecast
74
74
DefenceIn forecast
80
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFC Porto
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestFC Porto
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.67
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.67
1.39
xGVia Att/Def
1.51
1.19
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.88
-0.39
Goals minus xGContext
+0.16
67%
Scored inContext
100%
0%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
16.00
ShotsContext
12.33
5.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.33
33%
On target shareContext
43%
10.33
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
65%
Box shareContext
65%
6%
ConversionContext
14%
3.33
OffsidesContext
1.00
11.00
Shots allowedContext
13.33
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
2.67
BlocksContext
4.50
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.67
75%
Save rateContext
93%
51%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
478
PassesContext
371
392
Accurate passesContext
296
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.80
Team ratingContext
7.00
11.33
FoulsContext
6.33
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
14.33
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.67
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
2.10
1.10
Goals concededVia Att/Def
0.90
1.17
xGVia Att/Def
1.76
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.70
-0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.34
70%
Scored inContext
100%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
13.50
ShotsContext
14.20
4.30
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.10
32%
On target shareContext
36%
7.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.50
60%
Box shareContext
60%
8%
ConversionContext
15%
2.75
OffsidesContext
1.67
12.00
Shots allowedContext
9.70
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.40
3.30
BlocksContext
2.88
3.20
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.38
74%
Save rateContext
84%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
423
PassesContext
398
348
Accurate passesContext
328
82%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.93
11.40
FoulsContext
12.40
11.10
Fouls sufferedContext
13.40
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
2.80
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest4.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km2,855 km in 14d
Schedule load5%Low
FC Porto
Rest4 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel1,427 km560 km in 14d
Schedule load27%Moderate
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
FC Porto |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 5 | Moderate · 27 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.3Premier League 2025-2026, 12 Apr | 4Primeira Liga 2025-2026, 12 Apr |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 1,427 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,855 km | 560 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 2 / 3 | 2 / 3 / 5 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 3 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
27S. Ortega(G)
3N. Williams
5Murillo
23Jair
34T. Aina
16N. Domínguez
6I. Sangaré
14D. Ndoye
10M. Gibbs-White
21O. Hutchinson
11C. Wood
FC Porto
Confirmed XI
99Diogo Costa(G)
12Z. Sanusi
5J. Bednarek
3Thiago Silva
20Alberto Baio
10Gabri Veiga
13P. Rosario
42S. Fofana
17Borja Sainz
29T. Moffi
7William Gomes
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
FC Porto
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-0.5 pp
- Draw-0.2 pp
- FC Porto+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
0.00points per game · 1 home games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
FC Porto · Away
3.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
1 Nottingham Forest wins1 draws0 FC Porto wins
Goals per game1.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 0%
- 9 Apr 2026FC Porto1–1Nottingham Forest
- 23 Oct 2025Nottingham Forest2–0FC Porto
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.67 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 0.67 | |
| Match goals | 2.00 | 2.33 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 100% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 33% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 0% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 67% | 67% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 33% | 0% | |
| Games | 3 | 3 |
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.10 | 2.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.10 | 0.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.20 | 3.00 | 2.60 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 70% | 48% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 0% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.67 | 3.67 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.67 | 4.67 | |
| Match total | 10.34 | 8.34 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Over 10.5 | 33% 1/3 | 33% 1/3 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 2.67 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.67 | 2.33 | |
| Match total | 2.67 | 5.00 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Over 4.5 | 33% 1/3 | 67% 2/3 | |
| Nottingham Forest | FC Porto | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.20 | 4.33 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.60 | 3.44 | |
| Match total | 9.80 | 7.77 | 8.78 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 30% 3/10 | 33% 3/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 11% 1/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 5.50 | 4.56 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 20% 2/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Danny Makkelie Netherlands · 114 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.25league 4.38
Red cards0.12league 0.29
Cards 5+25%league 57%
Fouls21.4league 26.0
Penalties0.30league 0.19
Home wins43%league 43%
Nottingham ForestNo previous matches with this referee.
FC PortoNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest3 games · scored 3 · conceded 3
1
1
0-15
16-30
1
31-45
1
46-60
1
61-75
1
76-90
FC Porto3 games · scored 5 · conceded 2
1
1
0-15
3
16-30
1
31-45
46-60
1
61-75
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 11 · conceded 11
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
FC Porto10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
5
1
0-15
5
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
46-60
3
2
61-75
5
3
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
