Nottingham Forest
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Nottingham Forest69.1%fair odds 1.45
Draw19.0%fair odds 5.26
Malmo FF11.9%fair odds 8.42
Expected goals2.25 – 0.83total 3.08
Likeliest score2–011.6%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Malmo FF
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Nottingham Forest ↓ · Malmo FF → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 9.0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.7 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 3 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Nottingham Forest goals, columns Malmo FF goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 2–011.6%8.60
- 1–09.9%10.12
- 2–19.7%10.36
- 1–19.0%11.07
- 3–08.7%11.46
- 3–17.2%13.80
- 0–05.0%19.82
- 4–04.9%20.36
- 4–14.1%24.53
- 2–24.0%24.95
Winning margin
25.2%
Nottingham Forest by 3+
fair 3.96
20.8%
Nottingham Forest by 2
fair 4.81
23.1%
Nottingham Forest by 1
fair 4.34
19.0%
Draw
fair 5.26
8.2%
Malmo FF by 1
fair 12.17
2.8%
Malmo FF by 2
fair 35.36
0.8%
Malmo FF by 3+
fair 119.25
Goal distribution
Total goals
5%0
13%1
22%2
22%3
17%4
20%5+
Nottingham Forest goals
11%0
24%1
27%2
20%3
19%4+
Malmo FF goals
44%0
36%1
15%2
4%3
1%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nottingham Forest win | 69.1% | 68.8% | +0.3 pp |
| Draw | 19.0% | 19.2% | -0.2 pp |
| Malmo FF win | 11.9% | 12.0% | -0.1 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 58.8% | +0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 50.9% | 50.6% | +0.3 pp |
| Expected goals Nottingham Forest | 2.25 | 2.23 | +0.02 |
| Expected goals Malmo FF | 0.83 | 0.82 | +0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Nottingham Forest win69.1%1.45
- Draw19.0%5.26
- Malmo FF win11.9%8.42
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or draw88.1%1.13
- Double chance Nottingham Forest or Malmo FF81.0%1.23
- Double chance Malmo FF or draw30.9%3.24
- Draw no bet Nottingham Forest85.3%1.17
- Draw no bet Malmo FF14.7%6.82
Goals
- Over 0.595.0%1.05
- Over 1.581.7%1.22
- Over 2.559.5%1.68
- Over 3.537.1%2.70
- Over 4.519.9%5.04
- Under 1.518.3%5.47
- Under 2.540.5%2.47
- Under 3.562.9%1.59
Both teams to score
- Yes50.9%1.96
- No49.1%2.04
- Yes and over 2.541.9%2.39
- Nottingham Forest win and yes30.5%3.27
- Draw and yes14.0%7.15
- Malmo FF win and yes6.4%15.63
Team goals
- Nottingham Forest over 0.589.5%1.12
- Nottingham Forest over 1.565.8%1.52
- Nottingham Forest over 2.539.1%2.56
- Malmo FF over 0.556.4%1.77
- Malmo FF over 1.520.2%4.95
- Malmo FF over 2.55.2%19.29
- Nottingham Forest clean sheet43.6%2.29
- Malmo FF clean sheet10.5%9.50
- Nottingham Forest win to nil38.6%2.59
- Malmo FF win to nil5.5%18.24
Handicap
- Nottingham Forest −1.546.0%2.17
- Nottingham Forest −2.525.2%3.96
- Malmo FF +1.554.0%1.85
- Malmo FF +2.574.8%1.34
- Malmo FF −1.53.7%27.27
- Nottingham Forest +1.596.3%1.04
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record UEFA Europa League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored81
Favourite won53.1%
Avg chance given to result40.1%
1X2 Brier0.590
Over 2.5 called right50.6%
BTTS called right50.6%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 9 | 38.6% | 33.3% |
| 40–50% | 33 | 44.6% | 45.5% |
| 50–60% | 29 | 54.8% | 69.0% |
| 60–70% | 7 | 66.0% | 28.6% |
| 70–80% | 2 | 72.7% | 100.0% |
| 80%+ | 1 | 82.7% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 63 of 81 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5892 | 0.5931 |
| Avg chance given to result | 40.4% | 40.9% |
| Favourite won | 52.4% | 58.7% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 63 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 81 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.