Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Nottingham Forest were clear favourites.
Nottingham Forest were the stronger side on L90 Strength (66 vs 28). Absences weigh more on Malmo FF. Nottingham Forest had 5.2 days of rest, Malmo FF 21.1 and had to travel 963 km.
Away travel963 kmRest days5.2 · 21.1Matches / 14d1 · 0
Nottingham Forest69%
Draw19%
Malmo FF12%
Nottingham Forest68%
Draw20%
Malmo FF13%
Nottingham Forest68%
Draw20%
Malmo FF12%
Nottingham Forest62%
Draw22%
Malmo FF16%
Nottingham Forest69%
Draw19%
Malmo FF12%
Over 2.5 59%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
Referee · GermanyHarm Osmers
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.30
- Matches 91
Team strength
Nottingham Forest
Malmo FF
66
L90 StrengthIn forecast
28
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
25
68
AttackIn forecast
24
74
DefenceIn forecast
20
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMalmo FF
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestMalmo FF
1.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.50
1.25
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.75
2.15
xGVia Att/Def
0.69
0.79
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
75%
Scored inContext
50%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
13.75
ShotsContext
9.00
5.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.75
36%
On target shareContext
31%
9.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.50
70%
Box shareContext
63%
11%
ConversionContext
6%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.67
7.00
Shots allowedContext
16.25
3.25
On target allowedVia Att/Def
6.25
3.00
BlocksContext
4.25
1.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.50
46%
Save rateContext
72%
53%
PossessionIn forecast
46%
456
PassesContext
422
391
Accurate passesContext
347
86%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.90
Team ratingContext
6.68
14.00
FoulsContext
9.75
15.75
Fouls sufferedContext
12.75
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.25
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.25
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.20
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
1.61
xGVia Att/Def
0.69
1.38
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.98
-0.41
Goals minus xGContext
+0.51
50%
Scored inContext
60%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
40%
13.20
ShotsContext
8.88
4.60
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.57
35%
On target shareContext
35%
8.50
Shots in the boxContext
5.00
65%
Box shareContext
64%
9%
ConversionContext
10%
2.00
OffsidesContext
1.43
12.70
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.75
4.44
BlocksContext
4.00
2.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
61%
Save rateContext
68%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
47%
421
PassesContext
444
348
Accurate passesContext
369
83%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.87
Team ratingContext
6.65
12.10
FoulsContext
10.13
13.78
Fouls sufferedContext
13.88
2.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.10
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest5.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km264 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Malmo FF
Rest21.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel963 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Malmo FF |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.2Premier League 2025-2026, 22 Nov | 21.1UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 6 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 963 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 264 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 4 | 0 / 0 / 1 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 2.8 | 14 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
13John Victor(G)
5Murillo
4Morato
31N. Milenković
44Z. Abbott
6I. Sangaré
22R. Yates
7C. Hudson-Odoi
24J. McAtee
16N. Domínguez
15A. Kalimuendo
Malmo FF
Confirmed XI
33M. Ellborg(G)
19C. Rösler
18P. Jansson
5A. Đurić
25Gabriel Busanello
37A. Skogmar
23L. Berg Johnsen
17J. Stryger Larsen
29S. Hakšabanović
38A. Bolin
32D. Guðjohnsen
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.03 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Malmo FF
Scores -0.02 · concedes +0.09 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest+1.2 pp
- Draw-0.7 pp
- Malmo FF-0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Malmo FF · Away
0.00points per game · 1 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-1
- Scored
- 0.00
- Conceded
- 3.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Malmo FF | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.50 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.75 | 2.25 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 75% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 50% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 25% | 50% | |
| Games | 4 | 4 |
| Nottingham Forest | Malmo FF | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.50 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.75 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 2.25 | 3.08 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 75% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 59% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 50% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 50% | |
| Games | 10 | 4 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Malmo FF | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 3.75 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.33 | 4.25 | |
| Match total | 11.66 | 8.00 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 2/3 | 50% 2/4 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Over 10.5 | 67% 2/3 | 25% 1/4 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 2.75 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 5.75 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 75% 3/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 2/4 | 75% 3/4 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Malmo FF | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.56 | 3.86 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.89 | 4.57 | |
| Match total | 11.45 | 8.43 | 9.08 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 78% 7/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.00 | 1.90 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.10 | |
| Match total | 3.80 | 4.00 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Harm Osmers Germany · 91 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.01league 4.06
Red cards0.19league 0.16
Cards 5+42%league 41%
Fouls22.3league 24.7
Penalties0.30league 0.40
Home wins53%league 49%
Nottingham ForestNo previous matches with this referee.
Malmo FFNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest4 games · scored 6 · conceded 5
1
0-15
4
2
16-30
31-45
46-60
61-75
2
2
76-90
Malmo FF4 games · scored 2 · conceded 7
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 12 · conceded 14
1
1
0-15
2
3
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
3
46-60
1
61-75
4
4
76-90
Malmo FF10 games · scored 12 · conceded 13
2
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
3
5
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
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