Nottingham Forest
Attack—
Defense risk—
Nottingham Forest
16th · 42 pts · 35 played
WDWWW
1–1Full time
Newcastle
13th · 45 pts · 35 played
LLLLW
Our take
Nottingham Forest were slight favourites.
The two sides are close in strength. Absences weigh more on Nottingham Forest. Nottingham Forest had 2.8 days of rest, Newcastle 8 and had to travel 227 km.
Away travel227 kmRest days2.8 · 8Matches / 14d3 · 1
Nottingham Forest44%
Draw23%
Newcastle33%
Nottingham Forest44%
Draw27%
Newcastle29%
Nottingham Forest46%
Draw23%
Newcastle31%
Nottingham Forest36%
Draw24%
Newcastle41%
Nottingham Forest44%
Draw24%
Newcastle32%
Over 2.5 66%
Both score 67%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Nottingham, Nottinghamshire)
No weather data yet
RefereePaul Tierney
- Cards per match 3.9
- Penalties per match 0.17
- Matches 123
Team strength
Nottingham ForestNewcastle
76
L90 StrengthIn forecast
76
70
Current StrengthIn forecast
71
68
AttackIn forecast
61
74
DefenceIn forecast
61
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNewcastle
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Nottingham ForestNewcastle
1.26
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.31
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.46
1.18
xGVia Att/Def
1.53
1.43
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.36
+0.08
Goals minus xGContext
-0.13
60%
Scored inContext
77%
26%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.37
ShotsContext
12.97
4.15
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.60
33%
On target shareContext
36%
7.54
Shots in the boxContext
8.43
63%
Box shareContext
64%
10%
ConversionContext
11%
2.07
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.66
Shots allowedContext
11.91
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.23
4.47
BlocksContext
3.78
2.82
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.88
67%
Save rateContext
67%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
407
PassesContext
445
334
Accurate passesContext
370
82%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.88
Team ratingContext
6.91
10.91
FoulsContext
10.24
11.76
Fouls sufferedContext
12.20
1.60
Yellow cardsContext
1.77
0.03
Red cardsContext
0.03
2.10
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
2.00
1.33
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
2.00
+0.77
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
90%
Scored inContext
90%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
10%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.80
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.40
43%
On target shareContext
37%
7.30
Shots in the boxContext
7.60
67%
Box shareContext
66%
19%
ConversionContext
12%
2.22
OffsidesContext
2.00
12.90
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
4.00
BlocksContext
3.90
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
82%
Save rateContext
60%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
394
PassesContext
399
323
Accurate passesContext
320
82%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.99
Team ratingContext
6.78
12.00
FoulsContext
11.80
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
12.30
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Nottingham Forest
Rest2.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km496 km in 14d
Schedule load23%Moderate
Newcastle
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel227 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Nottingham Forest |
Newcastle |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 23 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 2.8UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - Knockout phase, 7 May | 8Premier League 2025-2026, 2 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 227 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 496 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 2 / 3 / 7 | 0 / 1 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Nottingham Forest
Confirmed XI
26M. Sels(G)
4Morato
23Jair
31N. Milenković
25L. Netz
8E. Anderson
16N. Domínguez
3N. Williams
19Igor Jesus
29D. Bakwa
9T. Awoniyi
Newcastle
Confirmed XI
1N. Pope(G)
33D. Burn
4S. Botman
12M. Thiaw
3L. Hall
39Bruno Guimarães
8S. Tonali
7Joelinton
27N. Woltemade
23J. Murphy
18W. Osula
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Nottingham Forest
Scores -0.06 · concedes +0.08 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Newcastle
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Nottingham Forest-2.2 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Newcastle+2.2 pp
Home / Away this season
Nottingham Forest · Home
1.06points per game · 17 home games
- W-D-L
- 4-6-7
- Scored
- 1.06
- Conceded
- 1.24
Newcastle · Away
0.94points per game · 17 away games
- W-D-L
- 4-4-9
- Scored
- 0.94
- Conceded
- 1.29
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Nottingham Forest | Newcastle |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | W 3–1 AL 0–3 H | W 1–0 AD 2–2 H |
| Sunderland | W 5–0 AL 0–1 H | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A |
| Burnley | W 4–1 HD 1–1 A | W 3–1 AW 2–1 H |
| Aston Villa | D 1–1 HL 1–3 A | L 0–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Tottenham | W 3–0 AW 3–0 H | W 2–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Fulham | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Manchester City | D 2–2 AL 1–2 H | L 1–2 AW 2–1 H |
| Brighton | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H | W 3–1 HL 1–2 A |
| Liverpool | L 0–1 HW 3–0 A | L 1–4 AL 2–3 H |
| Wolves | D 0–0 HW 1–0 A | D 0–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Leeds | L 1–3 AW 3–1 H | W 4–3 HD 0–0 A |
| Crystal Palace | D 1–1 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 AW 2–0 H |
| Brentford | W 2–0 AW 3–1 H | L 2–3 HL 1–3 A |
| Arsenal | D 0–0 HL 0–3 A | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H |
| West Ham | W 2–1 AL 0–3 H | L 1–3 A |
| Everton | L 0–2 HL 0–3 A | L 2–3 HW 4–1 A |
| Manchester United | D 2–2 H | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Bournemouth | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Points | 42 of 102 · 1.24 per game | 42 of 102 · 1.24 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
1 Nottingham Forest wins0 draws6 Newcastle wins
Goals per game1.43 – 2.43
Over 2.571%
Both scored71%
Clean sheets0% · 29%
- 5 Oct 2025Newcastle2–0Nottingham Forest
- 23 Feb 2025Newcastle4–3Nottingham Forest
- 10 Nov 2024Nottingham Forest1–3Newcastle
- 10 Feb 2024Nottingham Forest2–3Newcastle
- 26 Dec 2023Newcastle1–3Nottingham Forest
- 17 Mar 2023Nottingham Forest1–2Newcastle
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Nottingham Forest | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.26 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.31 | 1.46 | |
| Match goals | 2.57 | 2.86 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 74% | |
| Over 2.5 | 54% | 66% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 26% | 34% | |
| Both teams scored | 43% | 66% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 26% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 23% | |
| Games | 35 | 35 |
| Nottingham Forest | Newcastle | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.10 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 3.00 | 2.90 | 3.41 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 80% | 66% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 80% | 67% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 10% | |
| Failed to score | 10% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Nottingham Forest | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.26 | 6.11 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.91 | 5.09 | |
| Match total | 10.17 | 11.20 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 77% 27/35 | 77% 27/35 | |
| Over 9.5 | 60% 21/35 | 60% 21/35 | |
| Over 10.5 | 43% 15/35 | 51% 18/35 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.63 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.46 | |
| Match total | 3.49 | 4.32 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 46% 16/35 | 63% 22/35 | |
| Over 4.5 | 23% 8/35 | 40% 14/35 | |
| Nottingham Forest | Newcastle | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.80 | 3.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 5.10 | |
| Match total | 10.40 | 9.00 | 10.06 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.90 | 3.93 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Paul Tierney 123 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.82league 3.81
Red cards0.12league 0.12
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls22.0league 21.6
Penalties0.17league 0.21
Home wins37%league 43%
Nottingham Forest9 with this referee
Record2-3-4
Cards · opp.2.3 · 1.3
Pens for · against0 · 1
Reds1
- D9 Jan 26A · Wrexham3–34
- L2 Mar 24H · Liverpool0–13
- L2 Dec 23H · Everton0–11
- D1 Oct 23H · Brentford1–13
- D13 May 23A · Chelsea2–21
Newcastle11 with this referee
Record4-4-3
Cards · opp.1.8 · 2.2
Pens for · against2 · 3
- W14 Mar 26A · Chelsea1–02
- L24 Feb 24A · Arsenal1–40
- W17 Mar 23A · Nottingham Forest2–11
- W29 Oct 22H · Aston Villa4–01
- D15 Jan 22H · Watford1–13
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Nottingham Forest35 games · scored 44 · conceded 46
8
5
0-15
2
6
16-30
8
12
31-45
9
7
46-60
6
2
61-75
11
14
76-90
Newcastle35 games · scored 49 · conceded 51
7
2
0-15
9
5
16-30
10
13
31-45
4
6
46-60
6
6
61-75
13
19
76-90
Nottingham Forest10 games · scored 21 · conceded 9
4
1
0-15
1
1
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
1
46-60
4
1
61-75
4
3
76-90
Newcastle10 games · scored 14 · conceded 20
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
4
31-45
3
46-60
1
3
61-75
4
6
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
