Belgian Pro League Knockout phase Sat, May 8 · 16:00 King Power at Den Dreef Stadion, Heverlee
OH Leuven 15th · 5 pts · 8 played
First leg1–3 VS— Compare
Charleroi 3rd · 21 pts · 8 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel53 kmRest days7 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 2
Real contextStrength only
OH Leuven—%
Draw—%
Charleroi—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Heverlee)

Forecast from 23 Apr

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for OH Leuven and Charleroi. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

OH LeuvenCharleroi
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
18 Current StrengthIn forecast 38
17 AttackIn forecast 43
30 DefenceIn forecast 50
25 Form indexContext 80
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

OH Leuven

Attack—
Defense risk—

Charleroi

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

OH LeuvenCharleroi
0.75 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
1.75 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.88
1.07 xGVia Att/Def 1.86
2.38 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.73
-0.32 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
63% Scored inContext 100%
13% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.75 ShotsContext 16.75
2.38 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.63
19% On target shareContext 34%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 11.63
69% Box shareContext 69%
6% ConversionContext 12%
1.50 OffsidesContext 1.86
14.75 Shots allowedContext 10.88
4.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00
5.14 BlocksContext 4.57
3.14 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.71
63% Save rateContext 79%
48% PossessionIn forecast 57%
418 PassesContext 496
329 Accurate passesContext 421
79% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.72 Team ratingContext 7.10
11.25 FoulsContext 10.13
11.38 Fouls sufferedContext 13.38
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.13
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 8 and 8 games
0.70 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90
1.70 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.80
1.01 xGVia Att/Def 1.84
2.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.71
-0.31 Goals minus xGContext +0.06
60% Scored inContext 100%
10% Clean sheetsContext 50%
12.70 ShotsContext 16.80
2.60 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.70
21% On target shareContext 34%
8.60 Shots in the boxContext 11.80
70% Box shareContext 70%
6% ConversionContext 11%
2.00 OffsidesContext 2.00
15.00 Shots allowedContext 10.40
4.80 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.63
4.78 BlocksContext 4.50
3.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.67
66% Save rateContext 83%
47% PossessionIn forecast 58%
402 PassesContext 484
318 Accurate passesContext 411
79% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.74 Team ratingContext 7.08
10.90 FoulsContext 10.10
11.40 Fouls sufferedContext 12.50
1.60 Yellow cardsContext 1.30
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

OH Leuven
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km59 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 25 · 5 pts vs 8.0 for an average club · +0.3 vs expected
  • D11 OctA · Union St. Gilloise1–10.3 xPts
  • W19 SepH · RAAL La Louvière2–01.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Cercle Brugge1–11.3 xPts
  • L6 SepA · SK Beveren0–31.1 xPts
  • L3 SepA · Gent0–10.6 xPts
Charleroi
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel53 km193 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 80 · 12 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +4.5 vs expected
  • W11 OctA · Standard Liege1–01.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Cercle Brugge3–21.9 xPts
  • W13 SepA · Zulte Waregem1–01.2 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Union St. Gilloise2–31.2 xPts
  • W29 AugA · Kortrijk3–11.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
OH Leuven Charleroi
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 May7Belgian Pro League 2026-2027, 1 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km53 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways59 km193 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days1 / 2 / 41 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one77

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

OH Leuven Last XI · not confirmed
3-4-3 · vs Union St. Gilloise (A) 1–1, 11 Oct
13K. Vroman(G)
34R. Nyakossi 3Noë Dussenne 5J. Lawrence
99D. Opoku 8S. Schrijvers 6W. George 27Óscar Gil
21W. Balikwisha 18Robin Mirisola 24Ł. Łakomy
Charleroi Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Standard Liege (A) 1–0, 11 Oct
30M. Koné(G)
24M. Nzita 95C. Keita 4A. Ousou 3K. Van Den Kerkhof
18Y. Khalifi 6A. Boukamir
20F. Mbemba 8J. Romsaas 14P. Pflücke
21A. Scheidler

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
OH Leuven Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Charleroi Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

OH Leuven · Home 1.00points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
1-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.50
Charleroi · Away 3.00points per game · 4 away games
W-D-L
4-0-0
Scored
1.50
Conceded
0.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

OpponentOH LeuvenCharleroi
Union St. Gilloise D 1–1 A L 2–3 H
Cercle Brugge D 1–1 H W 3–2 H
Standard Liege L 1–2 H W 1–0 A
Points2 of 9 · 0.67 per game6 of 9 · 2.00 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

1 OH Leuven wins4 draws2 Charleroi wins
Goals per game1.00 – 1.29 Over 2.529% Both scored57% Clean sheets29% · 29%
  • 9 Aug 2026Charleroi3–1OH Leuven
  • 19 May 2026Charleroi1–1OH Leuven
  • 25 Apr 2026OH Leuven0–2Charleroi
  • 14 Mar 2026Charleroi0–2OH Leuven
  • 27 Jul 2025OH Leuven2–2Charleroi
  • 17 Feb 2024OH Leuven0–0Charleroi

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

OH LeuvenCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 0.752.00
Conceded per game 1.750.88
Match goals 2.502.88
Over 1.5 88%63%
Over 2.5 50%50%
Over 3.5 13%50%
Both teams scored 50%50%
Clean sheets 13%50%
Failed to score 38%0%
Games88
OH LeuvenCharleroiForecast
Scored per game 0.901.60
Conceded per game 1.401.00
Match goals 2.302.60
Over 1.5 80%60%
Over 2.5 40%40%
Over 3.5 10%40%
Both teams scored 40%40%
Clean sheets 30%40%
Failed to score 30%20%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

OH LeuvenCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won3.255.50
Corners conceded8.254.38
Match total11.509.8810.01
Over 8.575% 6/863% 5/8
Over 9.563% 5/863% 5/8
Over 10.563% 5/863% 5/8
Cards
Cards2.131.13
Opponent cards1.631.38
Match total3.762.513.36
Over 3.575% 6/825% 2/8
Over 4.525% 2/80% 0/8
OH LeuvenCharleroiLeague
Corners
Corners won3.606.50
Corners conceded8.204.70
Match total11.8011.2010.01
Over 8.570% 7/1070% 7/10
Over 9.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Over 10.560% 6/1070% 7/10
Cards
Cards1.701.40
Opponent cards1.501.40
Match total3.202.803.36
Over 3.560% 6/1030% 3/10
Over 4.520% 2/1010% 1/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

OH Leuven8 games · scored 6 · conceded 14
1 0-15
2 2 16-30
2 31-45
3 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
Charleroi8 games · scored 16 · conceded 7
1 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
3 3 31-45
2 1 46-60
3 1 61-75
3 76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 7 · conceded 17
1 0-15
3 3 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
1 3 61-75
1 5 76-90
Charleroi10 games · scored 19 · conceded 8
1 1 0-15
4 2 16-30
3 3 31-45
3 1 46-60
4 1 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Belgian Pro League

View all fixtures →
Lommel United SK Beveren May 816:00 OH Leuven Charleroi May 816:00 Anderlecht Union St. Gilloise May 816:00 Club Brugge KV KV Mechelen May 816:00 Zulte Waregem St. Truiden May 816:00 Kortrijk Gent May 816:00 Antwerp Standard Liege May 816:00 Genk Cercle Brugge May 816:00 RAAL La Louvière KVC Westerlo May 816:00