OH Leuven
Attack—
Defense risk—
OH Leuven
15th · 21 pts · 22 played
WLDLD
First leg1–1
2–2Full time
KV Mechelen
7th · 32 pts · 22 played
WLDLD
Our take
It was too close to call.
KV Mechelen were the stronger side on L90 Strength (31 vs 21). OH Leuven had 7.9 days of rest, KV Mechelen 7 and had to travel 24 km.
Away travel24 kmRest days7.9 · 7Matches / 14d2 · 1
OH Leuven36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
OH Leuven36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
OH Leuven36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen37%
OH Leuven29%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen44%
OH Leuven36%
Draw27%
KV Mechelen36%
Over 2.5 49%
Both score 54%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Heverlee)
No weather data yet
Referee · BelgiumLawrence Visser
- Cards per match 5.5
- Penalties per match 0.16
- Matches 44
Team strength
OH LeuvenKV Mechelen
21
L90 StrengthIn forecast
31
18
Current StrengthIn forecast
23
17
AttackIn forecast
18
30
DefenceIn forecast
23
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisKV Mechelen
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OH LeuvenKV Mechelen
0.86
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.18
1.36
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.09
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
1.17
1.34
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.42
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
+0.01
64%
Scored inContext
82%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
23%
12.86
ShotsContext
10.23
4.33
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.81
32%
On target shareContext
36%
8.29
Shots in the boxContext
7.24
65%
Box shareContext
68%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
1.71
OffsidesContext
2.21
12.32
Shots allowedContext
14.41
4.59
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.90
2.95
BlocksContext
4.40
3.43
Goalkeeper savesContext
4.19
72%
Save rateContext
87%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
339
PassesContext
403
262
Accurate passesContext
329
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.91
16.00
FoulsContext
9.95
11.23
Fouls sufferedContext
10.77
3.05
Yellow cardsContext
2.32
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.90
0.90
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.10
1.24
xGVia Att/Def
1.09
1.39
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.29
-0.24
Goals minus xGContext
-0.19
60%
Scored inContext
70%
40%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
14.00
ShotsContext
9.40
4.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.89
34%
On target shareContext
28%
8.20
Shots in the boxContext
6.60
60%
Box shareContext
70%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.56
OffsidesContext
3.17
12.80
Shots allowedContext
13.50
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.33
3.10
BlocksContext
4.00
3.78
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.90
81%
Save rateContext
81%
47%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
348
PassesContext
434
269
Accurate passesContext
354
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.87
15.40
FoulsContext
10.60
11.80
Fouls sufferedContext
10.60
3.00
Yellow cardsContext
2.40
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
OH Leuven
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
KV Mechelen
Rest7 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel24 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| OH Leuven |
KV Mechelen |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 24 Jan | 7Belgian Pro League 2025-2026, 25 Jan |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 24 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 2 | 1 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.1 | 7 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context. Some venues have no coordinates yet.
Squad & lineups
OH Leuven
Confirmed XI
1T. Leysen(G)
30T. Akimoto
3Noë Dussenne
28E. Pletinckx
7T. Verlinden
24Ł. Łakomy
8S. Schrijvers
27Óscar Gil
10Y. Maziz
14H. Teklab
19C. Ikwuemesi
KV Mechelen
Confirmed XI
13Nacho Mirás(G)
3José Marsà
2R. Halhal
33T. St. Jago
17Mathis Servais
19A. Mrabti
6F. Hammar
7T. Koudou
9M. van Brederode
28B. Boersma
10M. Kireev
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences OH Leuven
Absences are shown before kick-off
KV Mechelen
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- OH Leuven+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- KV Mechelen+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
OH Leuven · Home
0.91points per game · 11 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-5
- Scored
- 1.09
- Conceded
- 1.18
KV Mechelen · Away
1.55points per game · 11 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-4
- Scored
- 1.27
- Conceded
- 1.09
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 14 this season
| Opponent | OH Leuven | KV Mechelen |
|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | D 0–0 HL 0–5 A | L 0–1 AD 1–1 H |
| St. Truiden | L 0–1 AL 1–2 H | L 0–1 AL 1–3 H |
| RAAL La Louvière | D 0–0 AL 1–2 H | W 3–2 H |
| Cercle Brugge | L 0–2 HW 2–1 A | W 3–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Standard Liege | W 1–0 AW 1–0 H | L 0–1 HD 1–1 A |
| Zulte Waregem | D 1–1 HL 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Genk | L 1–2 AL 1–2 H | W 1–0 A |
| Gent | W 4–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Club Brugge KV | L 0–1 H | W 2–1 H |
| KVC Westerlo | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Anderlecht | D 1–1 H | L 1–3 A |
| Dender | W 1–0 A | D 1–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Antwerp | L 1–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Charleroi | D 2–2 H | W 1–0 HW 2–0 A |
| Points | 20 of 63 · 0.95 per game | 31 of 63 · 1.48 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 3 of 3 meetings
2 OH Leuven wins1 draws0 KV Mechelen wins
Goals per game1.33 – 0.67
Over 2.533%
Both scored67%
Clean sheets33% · 0%
- 25 Oct 2025KV Mechelen1–1OH Leuven
- 17 Mar 2024OH Leuven1–0KV Mechelen
- 23 Sep 2023KV Mechelen1–2OH Leuven
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.86 | 1.18 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.36 | 1.09 | |
| Match goals | 2.23 | 2.27 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 68% | 68% | |
| Over 2.5 | 41% | 32% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 18% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 45% | 64% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 23% | |
| Failed to score | 36% | 18% | |
| Games | 22 | 22 |
| OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 0.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.10 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 2.00 | 2.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 20% | 49% |
| Over 3.5 | 10% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% | 54% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 40% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.48 | 5.10 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.33 | 5.95 | |
| Match total | 9.81 | 11.05 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 57% 12/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 9.5 | 52% 11/21 | 67% 14/21 | |
| Over 10.5 | 48% 10/21 | 52% 11/21 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.09 | 2.32 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.32 | 1.68 | |
| Match total | 5.41 | 4.00 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 82% 18/22 | 64% 14/22 | |
| Over 4.5 | 59% 13/22 | 36% 8/22 | |
| OH Leuven | KV Mechelen | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.89 | 5.22 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 5.22 | |
| Match total | 10.67 | 10.44 | 9.75 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 67% 6/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 56% 5/9 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 3.00 | 2.40 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match total | 5.20 | 4.30 | 4.03 |
| Over 3.5 | 80% 8/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Lawrence Visser Belgium · 44 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.11league 3.83
Red cards0.36league 0.19
Cards 5+66%league 40%
Fouls23.1league 22.9
Penalties0.16league 0.27
Home wins41%league 40%
OH Leuven3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.7
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- W31 Aug 25H · Standard Liege1–03
- L2 Mar 24H · Union St. Gilloise0–23
- D18 Aug 23H · Antwerp1–14
KV Mechelen2 with this referee
Record1-1-0
Cards · opp.1.5 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 0
- D9 Nov 25H · Union St. Gilloise1–13
- W24 Feb 24H · Kortrijk3–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
OH Leuven22 games · scored 19 · conceded 30
3
6
0-15
6
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
4
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
7
76-90
KV Mechelen22 games · scored 26 · conceded 24
5
2
0-15
4
3
16-30
6
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
3
5
61-75
6
9
76-90
OH Leuven10 games · scored 10 · conceded 9
1
2
0-15
2
16-30
3
3
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
61-75
2
1
76-90
KV Mechelen10 games · scored 9 · conceded 11
2
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
1
3
46-60
1
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
