OH Leuven
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
OH Leuven
15th · 21 pts · 22 played
WLDLD
First leg1–1
2–2Full time
KV Mechelen
7th · 32 pts · 22 played
WLDLD
OH Leuven35.9%fair odds 2.79
Draw27.5%fair odds 3.64
KV Mechelen36.6%fair odds 2.73
Expected goals1.31 – 1.33total 2.64
Likeliest score1–113.1%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
KV Mechelen
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| OH Leuven ↓ · KV Mechelen → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.8 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are OH Leuven goals, columns KV Mechelen goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.1%7.64
- 0–18.8%11.35
- 1–08.7%11.50
- 1–28.3%12.11
- 2–18.2%12.26
- 0–07.8%12.85
- 0–26.3%15.90
- 2–06.1%16.29
- 2–25.4%18.45
- 1–33.7%27.34
Winning margin
5.7%
OH Leuven by 3+
fair 17.52
10.6%
OH Leuven by 2
fair 9.45
19.6%
OH Leuven by 1
fair 5.10
27.5%
Draw
fair 3.64
19.8%
KV Mechelen by 1
fair 5.04
10.8%
KV Mechelen by 2
fair 9.22
5.9%
KV Mechelen by 3+
fair 16.82
Goal distribution
Total goals
8%0
18%1
26%2
22%3
14%4
13%5+
OH Leuven goals
27%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
4%4+
KV Mechelen goals
26%0
35%1
23%2
10%3
5%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven win | 35.9% | 36.3% | -0.4 pp |
| Draw | 27.5% | 27.3% | +0.2 pp |
| KV Mechelen win | 36.6% | 36.4% | +0.3 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 49.2% | 49.8% | -0.6 pp |
| Both teams score | 54.4% | 54.9% | -0.5 pp |
| Expected goals OH Leuven | 1.31 | 1.33 | -0.02 |
| Expected goals KV Mechelen | 1.33 | 1.33 | -0.01 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- OH Leuven win35.9%2.79
- Draw27.5%3.64
- KV Mechelen win36.6%2.73
- Double chance OH Leuven or draw63.4%1.58
- Double chance OH Leuven or KV Mechelen72.5%1.38
- Double chance KV Mechelen or draw64.1%1.56
- Draw no bet OH Leuven49.5%2.02
- Draw no bet KV Mechelen50.5%1.98
Goals
- Over 0.592.2%1.08
- Over 1.574.7%1.34
- Over 2.549.2%2.03
- Over 3.527.3%3.66
- Over 4.512.9%7.78
- Under 1.525.3%3.95
- Under 2.550.8%1.97
- Under 3.572.7%1.38
Both teams to score
- Yes54.4%1.84
- No45.6%2.19
- Yes and over 2.541.3%2.42
- OH Leuven win and yes17.2%5.81
- Draw and yes19.7%5.08
- KV Mechelen win and yes17.5%5.71
Team goals
- OH Leuven over 0.573.1%1.37
- OH Leuven over 1.537.8%2.65
- OH Leuven over 2.514.6%6.86
- KV Mechelen over 0.573.5%1.36
- KV Mechelen over 1.538.3%2.61
- KV Mechelen over 2.515.0%6.69
- OH Leuven clean sheet26.5%3.78
- KV Mechelen clean sheet26.9%3.72
- OH Leuven win to nil18.7%5.35
- KV Mechelen win to nil19.1%5.23
Handicap
- OH Leuven −1.516.3%6.14
- OH Leuven −2.55.7%17.52
- KV Mechelen +1.583.7%1.19
- KV Mechelen +2.594.3%1.06
- KV Mechelen −1.516.8%5.96
- OH Leuven +1.583.2%1.20
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record Belgian Pro League 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored183
Favourite won43.2%
Avg chance given to result37.0%
1X2 Brier0.638
Over 2.5 called right50.8%
BTTS called right51.4%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 34 | 38.1% | 38.2% |
| 40–50% | 88 | 44.8% | 34.1% |
| 50–60% | 41 | 54.4% | 53.7% |
| 60–70% | 16 | 64.4% | 75.0% |
| 70–80% | 4 | 73.5% | 50.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 145 of 183 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.6466 | 0.6401 |
| Avg chance given to result | 36.7% | 37.5% |
| Favourite won | 42.1% | 41.4% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 145 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
Latest results
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- ✗Anderlecht 0–0 Dender61·22·17
- ✗Genk 1–1 Cercle Brugge53·24·23
Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 183 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.