Osasuna
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Osasuna were slight favourites.
Osasuna were the stronger side on L90 Strength (58 vs 43). Osasuna had 5.9 days of rest, Mallorca 6.8 and had to travel 509 km.
Away travel509 kmRest days5.9 · 6.8Matches / 14d2 · 2
Osasuna51%
Draw28%
Mallorca22%
Osasuna52%
Draw25%
Mallorca23%
Osasuna50%
Draw28%
Mallorca22%
Osasuna44%
Draw29%
Mallorca27%
Osasuna52%
Draw26%
Mallorca22%
Over 2.5 42%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 1–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Iruñea)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainAlejandro Hernandez
- Cards per match 5.3
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 130
Team strength
Osasuna
Mallorca
58
L90 StrengthIn forecast
43
46
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
50
AttackIn forecast
50
50
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OsasunaMallorca
1.15
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.12
1.15
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.62
1.08
xGVia Att/Def
0.97
1.26
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.63
+0.07
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
62%
Scored inContext
69%
23%
Clean sheetsContext
12%
10.65
ShotsContext
9.42
3.74
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.76
31%
On target shareContext
38%
7.71
Shots in the boxContext
6.25
69%
Box shareContext
64%
11%
ConversionContext
12%
1.94
OffsidesContext
2.13
12.69
Shots allowedContext
14.62
4.65
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.52
BlocksContext
4.54
3.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.65
75%
Save rateContext
70%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
44%
367
PassesContext
372
292
Accurate passesContext
296
80%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.77
13.23
FoulsContext
10.73
11.19
Fouls sufferedContext
12.15
2.35
Yellow cardsContext
2.15
0.12
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.90
1.16
xGVia Att/Def
0.98
1.24
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.70
+0.44
Goals minus xGContext
+0.12
70%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
11.80
ShotsContext
8.00
4.13
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.22
28%
On target shareContext
36%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
6.33
69%
Box shareContext
71%
14%
ConversionContext
14%
1.78
OffsidesContext
1.88
11.90
Shots allowedContext
16.10
4.00
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.60
3.22
BlocksContext
5.50
3.33
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.70
77%
Save rateContext
66%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
42%
360
PassesContext
371
289
Accurate passesContext
293
80%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.85
Team ratingContext
6.70
14.60
FoulsContext
10.70
11.90
Fouls sufferedContext
11.60
2.60
Yellow cardsContext
2.30
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Osasuna
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km773 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel509 km2,000 km in 14d
Schedule load11%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Osasuna |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 11 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 1 Mar | 6.8La Liga 2025-2026, 28 Feb |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 509 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 773 km | 2,000 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.3 | 8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Osasuna
Confirmed XI
1Sergio Herrera(G)
20Javi Galán
5Jorge Herrando
24Catena
19V. Rosier
6Lucas Torró
7Moncayola
21Víctor Muñoz
10Aimar Oroz
14Rubén García
17A. Budimir
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
1Leo Román(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
8Manu Morlanes
5Omar Mascarell
12Samú Costa
20Pablo Torre
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Osasuna
Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Osasuna+0.1 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Mallorca-0.1 pp
Home / Away this season
Osasuna · Home
2.00points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 7-3-2
- Scored
- 1.83
- Conceded
- 1.17
Mallorca · Away
0.38points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-10
- Scored
- 0.77
- Conceded
- 1.92
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Osasuna | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | L 0–1 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Real Madrid | W 2–1 HL 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Elche | D 0–0 AD 1–1 H | W 3–1 H |
| Celta Vigo | W 2–1 AL 2–3 H | L 0–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Villarreal | D 2–2 HL 1–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | W 3–1 AW 2–0 H | L 1–2 A |
| Oviedo | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Girona | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| Athletic Club | D 1–1 H | W 3–2 HL 1–2 A |
| Alaves | W 3–0 H | W 1–0 H |
| Barcelona | L 0–2 A | L 0–3 AL 0–3 H |
| Levante | W 2–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Real Sociedad | L 1–3 H | L 0–1 HL 0–1 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 HW 3–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 A | L 0–3 AD 1–1 H |
| Getafe | W 2–1 H | W 1–0 H |
| Real Betis | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 HL 0–3 A |
| Espanyol | L 0–1 A | L 2–3 A |
| Points | 32 of 75 · 1.28 per game | 23 of 75 · 0.92 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 9 of 9 meetings
3 Osasuna wins4 draws2 Mallorca wins
Goals per game1.22 – 1.22
Over 2.533%
Both scored56%
Clean sheets33% · 22%
- 29 Nov 2025Mallorca2–2Osasuna
- 10 Feb 2025Mallorca1–1Osasuna
- 24 Aug 2024Osasuna1–0Mallorca
- 14 May 2024Osasuna1–1Mallorca
- 21 Dec 2023Mallorca3–2Osasuna
- 31 Mar 2023Mallorca0–0Osasuna
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Osasuna | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.15 | 1.12 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.15 | 1.62 | |
| Match goals | 2.31 | 2.73 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 65% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 42% | 62% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 23% | 23% | |
| Both teams scored | 46% | 62% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 23% | 12% | |
| Failed to score | 38% | 31% | |
| Games | 26 | 26 |
| Osasuna | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.00 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.00 | 2.36 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 60% | 70% | 42% |
| Over 3.5 | 30% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Osasuna | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.13 | 3.36 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.87 | 6.92 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 10.28 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 48% 11/23 | 84% 21/25 | |
| Over 9.5 | 26% 6/23 | 52% 13/25 | |
| Over 10.5 | 9% 2/23 | 44% 11/25 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.50 | 2.27 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.27 | 2.15 | |
| Match total | 4.77 | 4.42 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 85% 22/26 | 54% 14/26 | |
| Over 4.5 | 58% 15/26 | 38% 10/26 | |
| Osasuna | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 2.89 | 3.40 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.78 | 7.70 | |
| Match total | 8.67 | 11.10 | 9.55 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 33% 3/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.70 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.60 | 2.20 | |
| Match total | 5.30 | 4.50 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 100% 10/10 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 60% 6/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Alejandro Hernandez Spain · 130 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards5.02league 4.20
Red cards0.25league 0.27
Cards 5+58%league 46%
Fouls24.9league 24.5
Penalties0.32league 0.38
Home wins41%league 47%
Osasuna8 with this referee
Record1-1-6
Cards · opp.2.9 · 3.6
Pens for · against5 · 0
- L10 Jan 26A · Girona0–15
- L26 Oct 25H · Celta Vigo2–33
- L16 Mar 25H · Getafe1–22
- L17 Sep 23A · Getafe2–32
- W18 Sep 21A · Alaves2–03
Mallorca7 with this referee
Record2-2-3
Cards · opp.3.3 · 2.4
Pens for · against1 · 1
- L15 Sep 25A · Espanyol2–31
- L18 May 25H · Getafe1–22
- D9 Mar 25A · Athletic Club1–13
- L22 Apr 24A · Sevilla1–22
- W25 May 23H · Valencia1–04
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Osasuna25 games · scored 30 · conceded 30
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
11
3
31-45
7
46-60
2
11
61-75
11
5
76-90
Mallorca26 games · scored 29 · conceded 42
4
6
0-15
4
9
16-30
3
11
31-45
1
2
46-60
8
3
61-75
9
11
76-90
Osasuna10 games · scored 16 · conceded 10
0-15
2
1
16-30
5
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
5
61-75
7
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 19
1
2
0-15
3
4
16-30
1
5
31-45
1
1
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
4
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
