Oviedo vs Levante – 4 Oct 2025

La Liga Gameweek 8 Sat, Oct 4 · 13:00 Estadio Nuevo Carlos Tartiere, Oviedo

Oviedo 14th · 6 pts · 7 played WLLLW

0–2Full time

Levante 15th · 5 pts · 7 played LDWLD

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Levante were the stronger side on L90 Strength (46 vs 29). Oviedo had 3.8 days of rest, Levante 7 and had to travel 628 km.

Away travel628 kmRest days3.8 · 7Matches / 14d3 · 3

Oviedo32%

Draw29%

Levante39%

Expected goals 1.12 – 1.27

Oviedo33%

Draw27%

Levante40%

Expected goals 1.27 – 1.41

Oviedo32%

Draw29%

Levante38%

Expected goals 1.11 – 1.24

Oviedo26%

Draw28%

Levante46%

Expected goals 1.00 – 1.42

Oviedo33%

Draw27%

Levante40%

Expected goals 1.28 – 1.45

Over 2.5 43% Both score 49% Likeliest score 1–1

Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Oviedo)

No weather data yet

Referee · SpainJosé Luis Munuera Montero

Cards per match 4.8
Penalties per match 0.15
Matches 27

Team strength

Oviedo

Levante

29 L90 StrengthIn forecast 46

29 Current StrengthIn forecast 48

23 AttackIn forecast 55

39 DefenceIn forecast 41

— Form indexContext —

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Oviedo

Attack—

Defense risk—

Levante

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Oviedo

Levante

0.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.57

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00

0.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.20

43% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 14%

7.43 ShotsContext 9.57

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00

39% On target shareContext 31%

4.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.50

52% Box shareContext 66%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.50

18.71 Shots allowedContext 17.86

6.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.00

5.29 BlocksContext 4.86

5.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.29

79% Save rateContext 71%

38% PossessionIn forecast 39%

345 PassesContext 320

280 Accurate passesContext 250

81% Pass accuracyContext 78%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.69

11.43 FoulsContext 14.86

10.71 Fouls sufferedContext 11.57

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.43

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

0.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.80

1.71 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30

0.74 xGVia Att/Def 1.37

1.75 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.51

-0.17 Goals minus xGContext +0.43

43% Scored inContext 80%

14% Clean sheetsContext 10%

7.43 ShotsContext 11.20

2.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

39% On target shareContext 30%

4.00 Shots in the boxContext 7.33

52% Box shareContext 64%

8% ConversionContext 16%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.38

18.71 Shots allowedContext 17.70

6.86 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.80

5.29 BlocksContext 4.10

5.43 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.70

79% Save rateContext 69%

38% PossessionIn forecast 43%

345 PassesContext 351

280 Accurate passesContext 279

81% Pass accuracyContext 79%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.70

11.43 FoulsContext 14.10

10.71 Fouls sufferedContext 10.70

2.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.90

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 7 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Oviedo

Rest3.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel0 km2,681 km in 14d

Schedule load20%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Levante

Rest7 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d3all competitions

Travel628 km1,378 km in 14d

Schedule load21%Moderate

No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Oviedo	Levante
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Moderate · 20	Moderate · 21
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	3.8La Liga 2025-2026, 30 Sep	7La Liga 2025-2026, 27 Sep
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	628 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	2,681 km	1,378 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 3 / 4	1 / 3 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	13.3	15.2

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Oviedo Confirmed XI

4-3-3

13Aarón Escandell(G)

3Abdel Rahim 16David Carmo 2E. Bailly 24Lucas Ahijado

11S. Colombatto 20L. Dendoncker 5Alberto Reina

18J. Brekalo 23S. Rondón 10H. Hassan

+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Levante Confirmed XI

4-4-2

13M. Ryan(G)

23Manu Sánchez 4Adrián de la Fuente 2M. Moreno 22J. Toljan

7Roger Brugué 12Unai Vencedor 16K. Arriaga 24Carlos Álvarez

9Iván Romero 21E. Eyong

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Oviedo Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Levante Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off

Total impact vs full squads

Oviedo-0.4 pp
Draw-0.3 pp
Levante+0.7 pp

Home / Away this season

Oviedo · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 2.00

Levante · Away 1.00points per game · 4 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-2
Scored: 1.50
Conceded: 1.25

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

Opponent	Oviedo	Levante
Barcelona	L 1–3 H	L 2–3 H
Elche	L 0–1 A	L 0–2 A
Getafe	L 0–2 A	D 1–1 A
Real Madrid	L 0–3 H	L 1–4 H
Points	0 of 12 · 0.00 per game	1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

	Oviedo	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	0.57	1.57
Conceded per game	1.71	2.00
Match goals	2.29	3.57	2.39
Over 1.5	71%	100%
Over 2.5	43%	71%	43%
Over 3.5	14%	57%
Both teams scored	29%	71%	49%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	57%	14%
Games	7	7

	Oviedo	Levante	Forecast
Scored per game	0.57	1.57
Conceded per game	1.71	2.00
Match goals	2.29	3.57	2.39
Over 1.5	71%	100%
Over 2.5	43%	71%	43%
Over 3.5	14%	57%
Both teams scored	29%	71%	49%
Clean sheets	14%	14%
Failed to score	57%	14%
Games	7	7

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Oviedo	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	2.71	2.33
Corners conceded	7.00	7.00
Match total	9.71	9.33	9.57
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	50% 3/6
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	2.86	2.43
Opponent cards	1.14	2.00
Match total	4.00	4.43	4.21
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	43% 3/7

	Oviedo	Levante	League
Corners
Corners won	2.71	2.89
Corners conceded	7.00	6.56
Match total	9.71	9.45	9.57
Over 8.5	57% 4/7	56% 5/9
Over 9.5	57% 4/7	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	43% 3/7	33% 3/9
Cards
Cards	2.86	2.90
Opponent cards	1.14	2.30
Match total	4.00	5.20	4.21
Over 3.5	57% 4/7	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	29% 2/7	40% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · José Luis Munuera Montero Spain · 27 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.59league 3.93

Red cards0.22league 0.25

Cards 5+56%league 44%

Fouls25.5league 24.5

Penalties0.15league 0.30

Home wins37%league 48%

Oviedo

No previous matches with this referee.

Levante

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.