Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Mallorca were slight favourites.
Mallorca were the stronger side on L90 Strength (47 vs 26). Oviedo had 6 days of rest, Mallorca 6.3 and had to travel 823 km.
Away travel823 kmRest days6 · 6.3Matches / 14d2 · 2
Oviedo31%
Draw28%
Mallorca41%
Oviedo31%
Draw27%
Mallorca42%
Oviedo31%
Draw29%
Mallorca41%
Oviedo25%
Draw27%
Mallorca49%
Oviedo31%
Draw27%
Mallorca42%
Over 2.5 46%
Both score 52%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainIosu Galech Apezteguia
- Cards per match 4.9
- Penalties per match 0.13
- Matches 8
Team strength
Oviedo
Mallorca
26
L90 StrengthIn forecast
47
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
48
23
AttackIn forecast
50
39
DefenceIn forecast
59
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisMallorca
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoMallorca
0.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.07
1.57
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.57
0.69
xGVia Att/Def
0.92
1.81
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.19
Goals minus xGContext
+0.15
29%
Scored inContext
79%
21%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
7.93
ShotsContext
10.00
2.57
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.79
32%
On target shareContext
38%
4.85
Shots in the boxContext
6.08
57%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
11%
2.38
OffsidesContext
2.57
16.21
Shots allowedContext
14.00
6.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.71
3.93
BlocksContext
4.00
5.21
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
79%
Save rateContext
72%
43%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
383
PassesContext
378
318
Accurate passesContext
301
83%
Pass accuracyContext
80%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.80
11.50
FoulsContext
10.86
11.57
Fouls sufferedContext
12.36
1.86
Yellow cardsContext
2.07
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.07
0.60
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.10
1.50
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.30
0.73
xGVia Att/Def
0.93
1.87
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.71
-0.13
Goals minus xGContext
+0.17
30%
Scored inContext
80%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
8.80
ShotsContext
9.30
2.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.30
31%
On target shareContext
36%
5.89
Shots in the boxContext
5.33
63%
Box shareContext
56%
7%
ConversionContext
12%
2.78
OffsidesContext
3.25
14.90
Shots allowedContext
13.90
6.40
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.70
3.50
BlocksContext
4.20
5.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.67
78%
Save rateContext
73%
45%
PossessionIn forecast
45%
389
PassesContext
376
324
Accurate passesContext
297
83%
Pass accuracyContext
79%
6.81
Team ratingContext
6.88
12.00
FoulsContext
11.00
11.50
Fouls sufferedContext
12.40
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.10
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest6 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km744 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Mallorca
Rest6.3 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel823 km477 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Mallorca |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 12 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 6.3La Liga 2025-2026, 29 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 823 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 744 km | 477 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 2 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 8.7 | 7.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
3Abdel Rahim
16David Carmo
4David Costas
22Nacho Vidal
11S. Colombatto
20L. Dendoncker
7I. Chaira
8Santi Cazorla
9Federico Viñas
23S. Rondón
Mallorca
Confirmed XI
13L. Bergström(G)
22J. Mojica
21Raíllo
24M. Valjent
23Pablo Maffeo
12Samú Costa
5Omar Mascarell
17J. Virgili
10Darder
18Mateo Joseph
7V. Muriqi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Mallorca
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo+0.1 pp
- Draw-0.5 pp
- Mallorca+0.4 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.71points per game · 7 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-2-4
- Scored
- 0.29
- Conceded
- 1.43
Mallorca · Away
0.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-6
- Scored
- 1.14
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 10 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 0–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Osasuna | D 0–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Espanyol | L 0–2 H | L 2–3 A |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | D 1–1 H |
| Barcelona | L 1–3 H | L 0–3 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 H |
| Real Sociedad | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 A |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 1–2 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Points | 4 of 30 · 0.40 per game | 6 of 30 · 0.60 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head
No earlier meetings in our data.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.50 | 1.07 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.57 | 1.57 | |
| Match goals | 2.07 | 2.64 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 79% | |
| Over 2.5 | 29% | 57% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 14% | 21% | |
| Both teams scored | 21% | 64% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 21% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 71% | 21% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Oviedo | Mallorca | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.60 | 1.10 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.50 | 1.30 | |
| Match goals | 2.10 | 2.40 | 2.52 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 30% | 50% | 46% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 60% | 52% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 70% | 20% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.21 | 3.38 | |
| Corners conceded | 6.36 | 6.69 | |
| Match total | 9.57 | 10.07 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 64% 9/14 | 85% 11/13 | |
| Over 9.5 | 57% 8/14 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 4/14 | 38% 5/13 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.14 | 2.29 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.36 | 2.29 | |
| Match total | 3.50 | 4.58 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 7/14 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 4/14 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Oviedo | Mallorca | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.90 | 2.78 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.60 | 7.78 | |
| Match total | 9.50 | 10.56 | 9.71 |
| Over 8.5 | 60% 6/10 | 89% 8/9 | |
| Over 9.5 | 50% 5/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Over 10.5 | 20% 2/10 | 44% 4/9 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.40 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 3.10 | 4.50 | 4.26 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Iosu Galech Apezteguia Spain · 8 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.75league 4.04
Red cards0.13league 0.26
Cards 5+50%league 45%
Fouls27.1league 24.5
Penalties0.13league 0.33
Home wins38%league 46%
OviedoNo previous matches with this referee.
Mallorca1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L24 Sep 25A · Real Sociedad0–12
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo13 games · scored 7 · conceded 22
2
0-15
5
16-30
3
4
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Mallorca14 games · scored 15 · conceded 22
2
4
0-15
1
4
16-30
2
6
31-45
1
46-60
5
61-75
5
7
76-90
Oviedo9 games · scored 6 · conceded 15
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
31-45
1
1
46-60
4
61-75
3
4
76-90
Mallorca10 games · scored 11 · conceded 13
2
3
0-15
2
16-30
1
2
31-45
1
46-60
4
61-75
4
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
