Oviedo
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
Valencia were slight favourites.
Valencia were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 27). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Valencia. Oviedo had 4.9 days of rest, Valencia 5.9 and had to travel 628 km.
Away travel628 kmRest days4.9 · 5.9Matches / 14d3 · 2
Oviedo27%
Draw28%
Valencia46%
Oviedo28%
Draw27%
Valencia45%
Oviedo27%
Draw28%
Valencia45%
Oviedo21%
Draw26%
Valencia53%
Oviedo27%
Draw27%
Valencia46%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Oviedo)
No weather data yet
Referee · SpainMiguel Sesma Espinosa
- Cards per match 2.8
- Penalties per match 0.21
- Matches 14
Team strength
Oviedo
Valencia
27
L90 StrengthIn forecast
54
29
Current StrengthIn forecast
51
23
AttackIn forecast
39
39
DefenceIn forecast
52
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisValencia
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
OviedoValencia
0.63
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.11
1.63
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.52
0.85
xGVia Att/Def
1.23
1.61
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.20
-0.22
Goals minus xGContext
-0.12
41%
Scored inContext
78%
22%
Clean sheetsContext
26%
9.26
ShotsContext
11.04
2.96
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.04
32%
On target shareContext
27%
6.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.32
62%
Box shareContext
63%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
2.45
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.19
Shots allowedContext
11.70
5.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.31
3.93
BlocksContext
3.00
4.54
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.13
75%
Save rateContext
67%
44%
PossessionIn forecast
49%
371
PassesContext
413
302
Accurate passesContext
340
81%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.74
Team ratingContext
6.74
12.52
FoulsContext
11.96
11.63
Fouls sufferedContext
11.33
1.85
Yellow cardsContext
1.89
0.11
Red cardsContext
0.04
1.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.80
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.50
1.10
xGVia Att/Def
1.56
1.49
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.16
-0.10
Goals minus xGContext
-0.16
70%
Scored inContext
90%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
11.00
ShotsContext
11.60
3.70
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.44
34%
On target shareContext
27%
7.78
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
66%
9%
ConversionContext
12%
2.50
OffsidesContext
2.00
15.30
Shots allowedContext
10.80
5.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.78
4.40
BlocksContext
2.60
3.89
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.00
67%
Save rateContext
68%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
50%
340
PassesContext
411
263
Accurate passesContext
337
77%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
6.68
Team ratingContext
6.75
13.80
FoulsContext
12.60
12.30
Fouls sufferedContext
11.40
2.10
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Oviedo
Rest4.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d3all competitions
Travel0 km2,121 km in 14d
Schedule load20%Moderate
Valencia
Rest5.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel628 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Oviedo |
Valencia |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Moderate · 20 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 4.9La Liga 2025-2026, 9 Mar | 5.9La Liga 2025-2026, 8 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 628 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 2,121 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 3 / 5 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7 | 7.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Oviedo
Confirmed XI
13Aarón Escandell(G)
25Javi López
4David Costas
2E. Bailly
22Nacho Vidal
23N. Fonseca
6Kwasi Sibo
15T. Fernandez
5Alberto Reina
21L. Ilić
9Federico Viñas
Valencia
Confirmed XI
1S. Dimitrievski(G)
14José Gayà
24E. Cömert
4Unai Núñez
12Thierry Correia
2G. Rodríguez
8Javi Guerra
7A. Danjuma
23F. Ugrinic
17L. Ramazani
6U. Sadiq
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Oviedo
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.04 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Valencia
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.02 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Oviedo-0.2 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Valencia+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Oviedo · Home
0.85points per game · 13 home games
- W-D-L
- 2-5-6
- Scored
- 0.38
- Conceded
- 1.08
Valencia · Away
0.69points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-3-8
- Scored
- 0.85
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 18 this season
| Opponent | Oviedo | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| Espanyol | D 1–1 AL 0–2 H | W 3–2 HD 2–2 A |
| Rayo Vallecano | L 0–3 AD 0–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Atletico Madrid | L 0–1 HL 0–2 A | L 1–2 A |
| Real Sociedad | D 3–3 AW 1–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Athletic Club | L 1–2 HL 0–1 A | W 2–0 H |
| Girona | W 1–0 HD 3–3 A | L 1–2 A |
| Barcelona | L 0–3 AL 1–3 H | L 0–6 A |
| Osasuna | L 2–3 AD 0–0 H | W 1–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Real Betis | D 1–1 H | L 1–2 AD 1–1 H |
| Alaves | D 1–1 A | W 3–2 HD 0–0 A |
| Celta Vigo | D 0–0 H | L 1–4 A |
| Sevilla | L 0–4 A | D 1–1 H |
| Mallorca | D 0–0 H | D 1–1 H |
| Levante | L 0–2 H | W 2–0 AW 1–0 H |
| Elche | L 0–1 A | D 1–1 H |
| Getafe | L 0–2 A | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H |
| Real Madrid | L 0–3 H | L 0–2 HL 0–4 A |
| Villarreal | L 0–2 A | L 1–2 AL 0–2 H |
| Points | 15 of 78 · 0.58 per game | 32 of 78 · 1.23 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 1 of 1 meetings
1 Oviedo wins0 draws0 Valencia wins
Goals per game2.00 – 1.00
Over 2.5100%
Both scored100%
Clean sheets0% · 0%
- 30 Sep 2025Valencia1–2Oviedo
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Oviedo | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.63 | 1.11 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.63 | 1.52 | |
| Match goals | 2.26 | 2.63 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 67% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 37% | 44% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 19% | 22% | |
| Both teams scored | 33% | 56% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 22% | 26% | |
| Failed to score | 59% | 22% | |
| Games | 27 | 27 |
| Oviedo | Valencia | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.00 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.80 | 1.50 | |
| Match goals | 2.80 | 2.90 | 2.48 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 80% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 30% | |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 30% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Oviedo | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.85 | 5.13 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.73 | 5.04 | |
| Match total | 9.58 | 10.17 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 62% 16/26 | 67% 16/24 | |
| Over 9.5 | 54% 14/26 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Over 10.5 | 35% 9/26 | 50% 12/24 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.15 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.48 | 2.48 | |
| Match total | 3.63 | 4.41 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 48% 13/27 | 67% 18/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 8/27 | 56% 15/27 | |
| Oviedo | Valencia | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.56 | 4.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.22 | 4.80 | |
| Match total | 9.78 | 9.50 | 9.54 |
| Over 8.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 56% 5/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.20 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.60 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.80 | 4.46 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Miguel Sesma Espinosa Spain · 14 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards2.79league 4.21
Red cards0.00league 0.28
Cards 5+21%league 47%
Fouls26.4league 24.5
Penalties0.21league 0.37
Home wins71%league 47%
Oviedo1 with this referee
Record0-0-1
Cards · opp.2.0 · 2.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
- L21 Sep 25A · Elche0–12
ValenciaNo previous matches with this referee.
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Oviedo26 games · scored 17 · conceded 44
1
3
0-15
1
6
16-30
4
7
31-45
4
6
46-60
3
10
61-75
4
12
76-90
Valencia27 games · scored 30 · conceded 41
3
2
0-15
3
6
16-30
7
31-45
6
8
46-60
7
7
61-75
11
11
76-90
Oviedo10 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
0-15
1
16-30
1
3
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
6
61-75
1
5
76-90
Valencia10 games · scored 14 · conceded 15
1
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
3
31-45
2
2
46-60
3
3
61-75
6
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
