Oviedo
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
Oviedo26.5%fair odds 3.77
Draw27.8%fair odds 3.60
Valencia45.7%fair odds 2.19
Expected goals1.04 – 1.44total 2.48
Likeliest score1–113.2%
Everything on this tab comes from one score matrix: the LOAD90 forecast (EloLambda with attack and defence, availability, playing style and High Congestion) turned into a probability for every scoreline with the Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Fair odds are 1 ÷ probability, with no bookmaker margin. This is a probability model, not betting advice; for odds and value see eScored.
Match Opportunity
How this opponent changes expected goals compared with an average opponent from each team's domestic league.
Valencia
— No complete reference snapshot for this forecast.
About this comparison
The same LOAD90 model is run against a virtual opponent with the league's average Elo, raw attack and defence parameters and standardised possession, with no extra absences or high congestion. Your team's strength, squad availability, congestion and the match's venue context are kept. This measures opponent opportunity, not a change in your team's form. Positive attack change is favorable; negative conceding change is favorable. Clean-sheet changes are percentage points. Values are locked at kick-off.
Score matrix
| Oviedo ↓ · Valencia → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 13.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 6+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Chance of each exact score, in %. Rows are Oviedo goals, columns Valencia goals; 6+ adds up six goals or more.
Most likely scores
- 1–113.2%7.57
- 0–111.4%8.75
- 0–09.1%11.04
- 1–29.0%11.07
- 0–28.7%11.49
- 1–08.0%12.43
- 2–16.5%15.37
- 2–24.7%21.34
- 2–04.5%22.13
- 1–34.3%23.06
Winning margin
2.9%
Oviedo by 3+
fair 34.34
7.2%
Oviedo by 2
fair 13.82
16.4%
Oviedo by 1
fair 6.10
27.8%
Draw
fair 3.60
23.0%
Valencia by 1
fair 4.35
13.9%
Valencia by 2
fair 7.18
8.7%
Valencia by 3+
fair 11.47
Goal distribution
Total goals
9%0
19%1
26%2
21%3
13%4
11%5+
Oviedo goals
35%0
37%1
19%2
7%3
2%4+
Valencia goals
24%0
34%1
25%2
12%3
6%4+
LOAD90 vs pure EloLambda
| LOAD90 | EloLambda | Change | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oviedo win | 26.5% | 27.1% | -0.6 pp |
| Draw | 27.8% | 26.5% | +1.3 pp |
| Valencia win | 45.7% | 46.4% | -0.7 pp |
| Over 2.5 | 45.0% | 50.3% | -5.3 pp |
| Both teams score | 49.9% | 54.1% | -4.2 pp |
| Expected goals Oviedo | 1.04 | 1.13 | -0.10 |
| Expected goals Valencia | 1.44 | 1.55 | -0.11 |
EloLambda is the stable eScored model without the LOAD90 factors. The change column is what playing style and High Congestion add for this match; see the methodology.
All markets model probability and fair odds
Result
- Oviedo win26.5%3.77
- Draw27.8%3.60
- Valencia win45.7%2.19
- Double chance Oviedo or draw54.3%1.84
- Double chance Oviedo or Valencia72.2%1.39
- Double chance Valencia or draw73.5%1.36
- Draw no bet Oviedo36.8%2.72
- Draw no bet Valencia63.2%1.58
Goals
- Over 0.590.9%1.10
- Over 1.571.5%1.40
- Over 2.545.0%2.22
- Over 3.523.8%4.21
- Over 4.510.6%9.45
- Under 1.528.5%3.51
- Under 2.555.0%1.82
- Under 3.576.2%1.31
Both teams to score
- Yes49.9%2.00
- No50.1%2.00
- Yes and over 2.536.7%2.72
- Oviedo win and yes11.9%8.40
- Draw and yes18.7%5.33
- Valencia win and yes19.3%5.18
Team goals
- Oviedo over 0.564.6%1.55
- Oviedo over 1.527.8%3.60
- Oviedo over 2.58.7%11.45
- Valencia over 0.576.3%1.31
- Valencia over 1.542.2%2.37
- Valencia over 2.517.6%5.67
- Oviedo clean sheet23.7%4.22
- Valencia clean sheet35.4%2.82
- Oviedo win to nil14.6%6.84
- Valencia win to nil26.4%3.79
Handicap
- Oviedo −1.510.1%9.86
- Oviedo −2.52.9%34.34
- Valencia +1.589.9%1.11
- Valencia +2.597.1%1.03
- Valencia −1.522.7%4.41
- Oviedo +1.577.3%1.29
Corners, cards and shots are not forecast by LOAD90; their actual averages are on the Overview tab.
Model track record La Liga 2025-2026
All LOAD90 forecasts before this match.
Matches scored273
Favourite won53.5%
Avg chance given to result41.4%
1X2 Brier0.572
Over 2.5 called right58.2%
BTTS called right58.2%
Calibration · when the favourite was given…
| Favourite chance | Matches | Predicted | Actually won |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30–40% | 51 | 37.9% | 37.3% |
| 40–50% | 109 | 44.5% | 45.0% |
| 50–60% | 56 | 54.7% | 60.7% |
| 60–70% | 30 | 64.1% | 66.7% |
| 70–80% | 22 | 74.3% | 86.4% |
| 80%+ | 5 | 83.3% | 100.0% |
LOAD90 vs Bookmaker
Compared on the same 219 of 273 scored matches.
| LOAD90 | Bookmaker | |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 Brier (lower is better) | 0.5700 | 0.5623 |
| Avg chance given to result | 41.5% | 42.4% |
| Favourite won | 54.3% | 55.3% |
Bookmaker probabilities come from pre-match 1X2 odds supplied by eScored, with the margin removed. Prices may have been recorded at different times before kick-off. Bookmaker identity is unavailable for 219 archived lines; these prices may come from different bookmakers.
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Pre-match forecasts only. 0 of 273 were published live before kick-off; the rest were rebuilt after the match from pre-match data, never using the result. Numbers are home · draw · away chances, the actual result in bold. A good model's favourites in the 60–70% row should win about 65% of the time.