UEFA Europa League Matchday 4 Thu, Nov 6 · 20:00 Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki
PAOK 22nd · 4 pts · 3 played
4–0Full time
BSC Young Boys 15th · 6 pts · 3 played
Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

PAOK were slight favourites.

PAOK were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 44). PAOK had 14 days of rest, BSC Young Boys 14 and had to travel 1,424 km.

Away travel1,424 kmRest days14 · 14Matches / 14d0 · 0
PAOK51%
Draw24%
BSC Young Boys24%
Expected goals 1.79 – 1.18
PAOK50%
Draw26%
BSC Young Boys25%
Expected goals 1.64 – 1.09
PAOK50%
Draw25%
BSC Young Boys25%
Expected goals 1.73 – 1.15
PAOK43%
Draw26%
BSC Young Boys31%
Expected goals 1.60 – 1.32
PAOK50%
Draw25%
BSC Young Boys24%
Expected goals 1.69 – 1.12
Over 2.5 57% Both score 58% Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Thessaloníki)

No weather data yet

Referee · SerbiaSrdan Jovanovic
  • Cards per match 3.3
  • Penalties per match 0.25
  • Matches 4

Team strength

PAOKBSC Young Boys
54 L90 StrengthIn forecast 44
52 Current StrengthIn forecast 42
45 AttackIn forecast 45
55 DefenceIn forecast 36
— Form indexContext —
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

PAOK

Attack—
Defense risk—

BSC Young Boys

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

PAOKBSC Young Boys
1.67 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00
2.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.98
1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 0.92
+0.16 Goals minus xGContext +0.02
67% Scored inContext 100%
33% Clean sheetsContext 33%
10.33 ShotsContext 16.67
4.67 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.00
45% On target shareContext 36%
7.67 Shots in the boxContext 13.33
76% Box shareContext 81%
16% ConversionContext 12%
1.00 OffsidesContext 3.00
15.00 Shots allowedContext 16.33
7.33 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.33
2.67 BlocksContext 1.67
5.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.33
77% Save rateContext 54%
43% PossessionIn forecast 56%
367 PassesContext 471
299 Accurate passesContext 400
81% Pass accuracyContext 85%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.89
13.00 FoulsContext 13.00
11.33 Fouls sufferedContext 8.67
2.33 Yellow cardsContext 2.00
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
This league season, per match · 3 and 3 games
2.20 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30
1.10 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.30
1.51 xGVia Att/Def 1.16
1.73 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.65
+0.69 Goals minus xGContext +0.14
80% Scored inContext 80%
50% Clean sheetsContext 20%
12.80 ShotsContext 10.80
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.50
39% On target shareContext 32%
8.50 Shots in the boxContext 8.25
68% Box shareContext 67%
17% ConversionContext 12%
2.38 OffsidesContext 1.86
9.50 Shots allowedContext 16.10
4.20 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.78
2.25 BlocksContext 4.56
3.20 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33
76% Save rateContext 58%
55% PossessionIn forecast 48%
457 PassesContext 402
379 Accurate passesContext 330
83% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.96 Team ratingContext 6.71
12.20 FoulsContext 14.60
12.80 Fouls sufferedContext 9.90
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 2.40
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

PAOK
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.
BSC Young Boys
Rest14 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel1,424 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load12%Low
No finished matches with a forecast yet.

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
PAOK BSC Young Boys
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 12
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct14UEFA Europa League 2025-2026 - League phase, 23 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km1,424 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 10 / 0 / 1
Next matchdays after this one20.920.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

PAOK Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
99A. Tsiftsis(G)
21A. Baba 5G. Michailidis 4A. Vogliacco 3J. Kenny
8S. Meïté 22A. Bianco
11Taison 65G. Konstantelias 77K. Despodov
7G. Giakoumakis
+7 more reported missing outside this XI
BSC Young Boys Confirmed XI
4-2-3-1
1M. Keller(G)
3J. Hadjam 30S. Lauper 4B. Zoukrou 17S. Janko
37A. Gigović 45R. Raveloson
7A. Virginius 10A. Sanches 16C. Fassnacht
9S. Córdova
+4 more reported missing outside this XI

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
PAOK Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
BSC Young Boys Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.06 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
  • PAOK+0.7 pp
  • Draw-0.5 pp
  • BSC Young Boys-0.2 pp

Home / Away this season

PAOK · Home 1.00points per game · 1 home games
W-D-L
0-1-0
Scored
0.00
Conceded
0.00
BSC Young Boys · Away 3.00points per game · 1 away games
W-D-L
1-0-0
Scored
2.00
Conceded
0.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Head to head

No earlier meetings in our data.

Goals & match trends

PAOKBSC Young BoysForecast
Scored per game 1.672.00
Conceded per game 2.002.00
Match goals 3.674.00 2.96
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 67%67% 57%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 67%67% 58%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games33
PAOKBSC Young BoysForecast
Scored per game 1.672.00
Conceded per game 2.002.00
Match goals 3.674.00 2.96
Over 1.5 67%100%
Over 2.5 67%67% 57%
Over 3.5 67%67%
Both teams scored 67%67% 58%
Clean sheets 33%33%
Failed to score 33%0%
Games33

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

PAOKBSC Young BoysLeague
Corners
Corners won4.005.00
Corners conceded7.004.67
Match total11.009.679.02
Over 8.567% 2/367% 2/3
Over 9.567% 2/367% 2/3
Over 10.567% 2/367% 2/3
Cards
Cards2.672.00
Opponent cards2.330.67
Match total5.002.674.21
Over 3.5100% 3/333% 1/3
Over 4.567% 2/30% 0/3
PAOKBSC Young BoysLeague
Corners
Corners won4.224.89
Corners conceded4.566.89
Match total8.7811.789.02
Over 8.533% 3/989% 8/9
Over 9.533% 3/989% 8/9
Over 10.533% 3/989% 8/9
Cards
Cards2.102.40
Opponent cards3.001.10
Match total5.103.504.21
Over 3.580% 8/1050% 5/10
Over 4.550% 5/1030% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Srdan Jovanovic Serbia · 4 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards3.25league 4.02
Red cards0.00league 0.16
Cards 5+0%league 40%
Fouls19.3league 24.9
Penalties0.25league 0.43
Home wins50%league 48%
PAOK

No previous matches with this referee.

BSC Young Boys

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.

Goal timing

PAOK3 games · scored 5 · conceded 6
0-15
2 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 76-90
BSC Young Boys3 games · scored 6 · conceded 6
1 2 0-15
1 2 16-30
2 31-45
1 46-60
1 1 61-75
1 76-90
PAOK10 games · scored 22 · conceded 11
2 1 0-15
6 1 16-30
4 2 31-45
2 2 46-60
5 4 61-75
3 1 76-90
BSC Young Boys10 games · scored 13 · conceded 23
4 3 0-15
3 4 16-30
3 5 31-45
2 2 46-60
1 5 61-75
4 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Beta

Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.

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