Ligue 1 Gameweek 11 Sun, Nov 22 · 14:00 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
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Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel264 kmRest days14.9 · 13.9Matches / 14d0 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Paris FC—%
Draw—%
Angers—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Paris)

Forecast from 7 Nov

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris FC and Angers. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Not enough recorded data for this category yet.

Team strength

Paris FCAngers
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 19
46 AttackIn forecast 22
38 DefenceIn forecast 12
73 Form indexContext 16
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack—
Defense risk—

Angers

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Paris FCAngers
1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.29
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.14
2.11 xGVia Att/Def 1.79
1.18 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.30
-0.40 Goals minus xGContext -0.50
57% Scored inContext 71%
43% Clean sheetsContext 29%
14.43 ShotsContext 13.29
5.00 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
35% On target shareContext 23%
9.43 Shots in the boxContext 9.00
63% Box shareContext 68%
12% ConversionContext 10%
1.71 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.57 Shots allowedContext 17.29
4.00 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.57
3.00 BlocksContext 3.86
2.83 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.71
71% Save rateContext 72%
52% PossessionIn forecast 49%
575 PassesContext 420
508 Accurate passesContext 353
88% Pass accuracyContext 84%
6.84 Team ratingContext 6.73
13.71 FoulsContext 10.57
10.57 Fouls sufferedContext 13.00
2.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.14
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.90 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.20
1.00 Goals concededVia Att/Def 2.00
1.77 xGVia Att/Def 1.52
1.15 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.96
+0.13 Goals minus xGContext -0.32
70% Scored inContext 80%
40% Clean sheetsContext 20%
14.40 ShotsContext 12.10
5.10 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.00
35% On target shareContext 25%
9.70 Shots in the boxContext 8.30
65% Box shareContext 68%
13% ConversionContext 10%
2.10 OffsidesContext 2.00
9.90 Shots allowedContext 17.10
3.56 On target allowedVia Att/Def 6.60
2.67 BlocksContext 3.50
2.44 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.80
69% Save rateContext 73%
50% PossessionIn forecast 46%
524 PassesContext 394
457 Accurate passesContext 328
87% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.71
12.40 FoulsContext 10.00
10.30 Fouls sufferedContext 12.20
2.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.70
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.10
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC
Rest14.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d0all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected
  • W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
  • W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts
Angers
Rest13.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel264 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Marseille2–51.0 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Stade Brestois 291–50.9 xPts
  • W19 SepH · Estac Troyes2–01.8 xPts
  • D12 SepA · LE Havre0–01.2 xPts
  • L6 SepH · Rennes1–21.1 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Paris FC Angers
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match14.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 7 Nov13.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 8 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km264 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 0 / 20 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one5.26.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct
1K. Trapp(G)
14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara
33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez
15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal
9L. Sinayoko
Angers Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Marseille (H) 2–5, 18 Oct
1A. Lopes(G)
27L. Rao-Lisoa 34Maël Gernigon 24E. Biumla 2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen 14Y. Belkhdim
10M. Sbaï 6L. Mouton 18J. Allevinah
19A. El Ouazzani

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Paris FC Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Angers Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home 2.50points per game · 4 home games
W-D-L
3-1-0
Scored
2.25
Conceded
1.00
Angers · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
1.33
Conceded
2.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Paris FC wins1 draws1 Angers wins
Goals per game0.00 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored0% Clean sheets50% · 100%
  • 25 Jan 2026Paris FC0–0Angers
  • 17 Aug 2025Angers1–0Paris FC

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goal timing

Paris FC7 games · scored 12 · conceded 7
2 1 0-15
3 1 16-30
1 31-45
2 1 46-60
2 61-75
4 2 76-90
Angers7 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2 3 0-15
3 16-30
2 5 31-45
2 2 46-60
2 61-75
1 2 76-90
Paris FC10 games · scored 19 · conceded 10
3 1 0-15
4 1 16-30
1 31-45
3 2 46-60
1 4 61-75
7 2 76-90
Angers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2 4 0-15
3 16-30
2 6 31-45
3 3 46-60
3 2 61-75
2 2 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.