Angers
Attack+10%
Defense risk−17%
Our take
It looks too close to call.
Nice are the stronger side on L90 Strength (27 vs 19). Recent goals, xG and shots on target add to that edge for Nice. Angers have 7.9 days of rest, Nice 8 and have to travel 738 km.
Away travel738 kmRest days7.9 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Angers35%
Draw25%
Nice40%
Angers37%
Draw27%
Nice36%
Angers35%
Draw25%
Nice40%
Angers28%
Draw24%
Nice48%
Angers35%
Draw25%
Nice40%
Over 2.5 60%
Both score 63%
Likeliest score 1–1
EloLambda forecast, updated 1 day ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Angers)
Forecast from 24 Oct
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Angers and Nice. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
Attack
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Defence
Streaks
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Team strength
Angers
Nice
19
L90 StrengthIn forecast
27
19
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
22
AttackIn forecast
26
12
DefenceIn forecast
35
16
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack+41%
Defense risk−21%
Both teams face a more favorable matchup than their league-average baseline.
Playing style
AngersNice
1.29
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
2.14
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.79
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
2.30
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.50
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
71%
Scored inContext
57%
29%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
13.29
ShotsContext
11.71
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
23%
On target shareContext
32%
9.00
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
68%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
3.00
17.29
Shots allowedContext
11.86
6.57
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
3.86
BlocksContext
3.00
4.71
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
72%
Save rateContext
65%
49%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
420
PassesContext
546
353
Accurate passesContext
478
84%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
6.73
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.57
FoulsContext
9.29
13.00
Fouls sufferedContext
8.14
1.57
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.14
Red cardsContext
0.00
1.20
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
2.00
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.52
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.96
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
80%
Scored inContext
60%
20%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
12.10
ShotsContext
12.00
3.00
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
25%
On target shareContext
30%
8.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
68%
Box shareContext
68%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
2.00
OffsidesContext
2.70
17.10
Shots allowedContext
12.60
6.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.50
BlocksContext
3.60
4.80
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
73%
Save rateContext
67%
46%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
394
PassesContext
508
328
Accurate passesContext
439
83%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
6.71
Team ratingContext
6.75
10.00
FoulsContext
9.40
12.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.70
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Angers
LDWLL
Rest7.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km923 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 16 · 4 pts vs 8.7 for an average club · -2.0 vs expected
Nice
DLWWL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel738 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Angers |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct | 8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 31 Oct |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 738 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 923 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 13.9 | 13 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Angers
Last XI · not confirmed
1A. Lopes(G)
27L. Rao-Lisoa
34Maël Gernigon
24E. Biumla
2C. Arcus
8B. van den Boomen
14Y. Belkhdim
10M. Sbaï
6L. Mouton
18J. Allevinah
19A. El Ouazzani
Nice
Last XI · not confirmed
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Angers
No reported absences
Nice
No reported absences
Total impact vs full squads
- Angers+0.0 pp
- Draw+0.0 pp
- Nice+0.0 pp
From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.
Home / Away this season
Angers · Home
0.75points per game · 4 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-3
- Scored
- 1.25
- Conceded
- 2.25
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 2 this season
| Opponent | Angers | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | W 3–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| Lille | L 0–2 H | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game | 3 of 6 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
2 Angers wins1 draws5 Nice wins
Goals per game0.75 – 1.50
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets25% · 25%
- 14 Mar 2026Angers0–2Nice
- 7 Dec 2025Nice0–1Angers
- 20 Apr 2025Nice2–1Angers
- 1 Sep 2024Angers1–4Nice
- 2 Apr 2023Angers1–1Nice
- 18 Sep 2022Nice0–1Angers
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Angers | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.29 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.14 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.43 | 2.14 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 57% | 57% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 43% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 57% | 57% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 29% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 29% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Angers | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.20 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 2.00 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.20 | 2.00 | 3.11 |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 50% | 50% | 60% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% | 63% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Angers | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.43 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.71 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 12.14 | 8.71 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 86% 6/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 71% 5/7 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 57% 4/7 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.71 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.57 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 3.28 | 2.72 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Angers | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 6.00 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.56 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 11.56 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 89% 8/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 67% 6/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 44% 4/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.90 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.70 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.60 | 2.90 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Angers7 games · scored 9 · conceded 15
2
3
0-15
3
16-30
2
5
31-45
2
2
46-60
2
61-75
1
2
76-90
Nice7 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Angers10 games · scored 12 · conceded 20
2
4
0-15
3
16-30
2
6
31-45
3
3
46-60
3
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
