Auxerre vs Paris FC – 7 Nov 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 10 Sat, Nov 7 · 16:15 Stade de l’Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre

Auxerre 12th · 9 pts · 7 played LWWLW

VS— Compare

Paris FC 3rd · 14 pts · 7 played WDWLW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It looks too close to call.

The two sides are close in strength. Recent goals, xG and shots on target tip the balance towards Paris FC. Auxerre have 6.1 days of rest, Paris FC 6 and have to travel 148 km.

Away travel148 kmRest days6.1 · 6Matches / 14d2 · 2

Auxerre36%

Draw25%

Paris FC39%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.55

Auxerre40%

Draw27%

Paris FC33%

Expected goals 1.42 – 1.26

Auxerre36%

Draw25%

Paris FC39%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.55

Auxerre29%

Draw25%

Paris FC47%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.74

Auxerre36%

Draw25%

Paris FC39%

Expected goals 1.52 – 1.58

Over 2.5 58% Both score 61% Likeliest score 1–1

EloLambda forecast, updated 2 days ago. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Auxerre)

Forecast from 23 Oct

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Auxerre 7 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Auxerre

Paris FC

27 L90 StrengthIn forecast 32

30 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

39 AttackIn forecast 46

25 DefenceIn forecast 38

61 Form indexContext 73

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Auxerre

Attack−1%

Defense risk−6%

Paris FC

Attack+21%

Defense risk−12%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Auxerre

Paris FC

1.57 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.71

2.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.86 xGVia Att/Def 2.11

2.42 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.18

-0.29 Goals minus xGContext -0.40

100% Scored inContext 57%

14% Clean sheetsContext 43%

11.86 ShotsContext 14.43

5.14 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.00

43% On target shareContext 35%

6.00 Shots in the boxContext 9.43

49% Box shareContext 63%

13% ConversionContext 12%

2.80 OffsidesContext 1.71

14.71 Shots allowedContext 9.57

6.29 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.00

4.00 BlocksContext 3.00

4.29 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.83

68% Save rateContext 71%

45% PossessionIn forecast 52%

384 PassesContext 575

311 Accurate passesContext 508

81% Pass accuracyContext 88%

6.62 Team ratingContext 6.84

14.86 FoulsContext 13.71

10.14 Fouls sufferedContext 10.57

1.43 Yellow cardsContext 2.29

0.14 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.80 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.90

1.90 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.47 xGVia Att/Def 1.77

2.10 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.15

+0.33 Goals minus xGContext +0.13

100% Scored inContext 70%

20% Clean sheetsContext 40%

12.10 ShotsContext 14.40

5.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 5.10

45% On target shareContext 35%

7.25 Shots in the boxContext 9.70

55% Box shareContext 65%

15% ConversionContext 13%

2.57 OffsidesContext 2.10

13.20 Shots allowedContext 9.90

5.50 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.56

3.33 BlocksContext 2.67

3.70 Goalkeeper savesContext 2.44

67% Save rateContext 69%

45% PossessionIn forecast 50%

385 PassesContext 524

312 Accurate passesContext 457

81% Pass accuracyContext 87%

6.75 Team ratingContext 6.83

14.60 FoulsContext 12.40

9.00 Fouls sufferedContext 10.30

1.50 Yellow cardsContext 2.00

0.10 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Auxerre LWWLW

Rest6.1 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel0 km643 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 61 · 9 pts vs 7.8 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W18 OctA · LE Havre3–11.1 xPts
L11 OctA · Rennes1–40.7 xPts
W20 SepH · Stade Brestois 292–11.3 xPts
W12 SepH · Nice1–01.6 xPts
L4 SepA · Lyon1–30.6 xPts

Paris FC WDWLW

Rest6 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel148 km358 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 73 · 10 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +3.6 vs expected

W18 OctH · Rennes4–31.3 xPts
L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Auxerre	Paris FC
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 0
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	6.1Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 Nov	6Ligue 1 2026-2027, 1 Nov
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	148 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	643 km	358 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	1 / 2 / 4	1 / 2 / 4
Next matchdays after this one	14.1	14.9

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Auxerre Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs LE Havre (A) 3–1, 18 Oct

1P. Nardi(G)

92C. Akpa 4A. Tuanzebe 15C. Makosso

22F. Oppegård 5K. Danois 8N. Ahamada 27L. Sy

10D. Namaso 21R. Faivre

9C. Archer

Paris FC Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Rennes (H) 4–3, 18 Oct

1K. Trapp(G)

14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Auxerre No reported absences

Paris FC No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Auxerre+0.0 pp
Draw+0.0 pp
Paris FC+0.0 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Auxerre · Home 2.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-0-1
Scored: 1.33
Conceded: 1.33

Paris FC · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.00

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 3 this season

Opponent	Auxerre	Paris FC
Rennes	L 1–4 A	W 4–3 H
Nice	W 1–0 H	W 3–0 H
Lyon	L 1–3 A	D 0–0 H
Points	3 of 9 · 1.00 per game	7 of 9 · 2.33 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Auxerre wins2 draws0 Paris FC wins

Goals per game0.50 – 0.50 Over 2.50% Both scored50% Clean sheets50% · 50%

8 Feb 2026Auxerre0–0Paris FC
29 Nov 2025Paris FC1–1Auxerre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Auxerre	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.57	1.71
Conceded per game	2.43	1.00
Match goals	4.00	2.71	3.03
Over 1.5	86%	57%
Over 2.5	86%	57%	58%
Over 3.5	71%	29%
Both teams scored	86%	43%	61%
Clean sheets	14%	43%
Failed to score	0%	43%
Games	7	7

	Auxerre	Paris FC	Forecast
Scored per game	1.80	1.90
Conceded per game	1.90	1.00
Match goals	3.70	2.90	3.03
Over 1.5	90%	70%
Over 2.5	80%	70%	58%
Over 3.5	60%	30%
Both teams scored	80%	50%	61%
Clean sheets	20%	40%
Failed to score	0%	30%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Auxerre	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.57	4.00
Corners conceded	7.57	4.17
Match total	13.14	8.17	9.63
Over 8.5	100% 7/7	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	100% 7/7	17% 1/6
Over 10.5	100% 7/7	17% 1/6
Cards
Cards	1.57	2.29
Opponent cards	1.71	1.57
Match total	3.28	3.86	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	43% 3/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Auxerre	Paris FC	League
Corners
Corners won	5.50	4.00
Corners conceded	6.40	4.11
Match total	11.90	8.11	9.63
Over 8.5	90% 9/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	90% 9/10	33% 3/9
Over 10.5	80% 8/10	11% 1/9
Cards
Cards	1.60	2.00
Opponent cards	1.90	1.20
Match total	3.50	3.20	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	30% 3/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.