Paris FC vs Rennes – 18 Oct 2026

Ligue 1 Gameweek 7 Sun, Oct 18 · 16:15 Stade Jean Bouin, Paris

Paris FC 6th · 11 pts · 6 played WWDWL

4–3Full time

Rennes 4th · 13 pts · 6 played WWWLW

Full match report oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

It was too close to call.

Rennes were the stronger side on L90 Strength (54 vs 32). Recent goals, xG and shots on target narrow the gap for Paris FC. Paris FC had 7.9 days of rest, Rennes 2.8 and had to travel 308 km. Conditions were neutral.

Away travel308 kmRest days7.9 · 2.8Matches / 14d1 · 2

Paris FC35%

Draw25%

Rennes40%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.61

Paris FC31%

Draw27%

Rennes42%

Expected goals 1.22 – 1.47

Paris FC36%

Draw25%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.51 – 1.58

Paris FC28%

Draw24%

Rennes48%

Expected goals 1.35 – 1.81

Paris FC36%

Draw25%

Rennes39%

Expected goals 1.50 – 1.58

Over 2.5 60% Both score 63% Likeliest score 1–1

Pre-match forecast. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.

Weather (Paris)

12°CPartly cloudy

Precipitation 0.0 mm
Wind 9 km/h
Humidity 64%

RefereeBastein Dechepy

Cards per match 5.0
Penalties per match 0.00
Matches 1

Team strength

Paris FC

Rennes

32 L90 StrengthIn forecast 54

34 Current StrengthIn forecast 52

46 AttackIn forecast 63

38 DefenceIn forecast 39

70 Form indexContext 67

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Paris FC

Attack−7%

Defense risk+20%

Rennes

Attack−1%

Defense risk−5%

Changes versus each team's league-average baseline. Higher attack and lower defense risk are favorable.

Playing style

Paris FC

Rennes

1.33 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 2.00

0.67 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.67

1.84 xGVia Att/Def 1.91

0.53 xG allowedVia Att/Def 2.22

-0.51 Goals minus xGContext +0.09

50% Scored inContext 83%

50% Clean sheetsContext 17%

13.67 ShotsContext 17.00

4.33 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.17

32% On target shareContext 36%

8.67 Shots in the boxContext 11.67

61% Box shareContext 66%

10% ConversionContext 12%

1.83 OffsidesContext 1.75

9.17 Shots allowedContext 14.67

3.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 5.33

2.80 BlocksContext 4.33

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.67

77% Save rateContext 69%

52% PossessionIn forecast 52%

585 PassesContext 476

519 Accurate passesContext 402

89% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.84 Team ratingContext 6.82

13.83 FoulsContext 13.17

9.67 Fouls sufferedContext 11.17

2.17 Yellow cardsContext 2.17

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 6 and 6 games

1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.70

0.80 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.50

1.50 xGVia Att/Def 1.95

0.95 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.63

+0.00 Goals minus xGContext -0.25

60% Scored inContext 80%

40% Clean sheetsContext 20%

13.20 ShotsContext 18.80

4.40 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 6.10

33% On target shareContext 32%

9.22 Shots in the boxContext 12.80

64% Box shareContext 66%

11% ConversionContext 9%

2.40 OffsidesContext 2.25

9.70 Shots allowedContext 13.90

3.22 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90

2.56 BlocksContext 4.67

2.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.25

72% Save rateContext 72%

50% PossessionIn forecast 55%

515 PassesContext 472

447 Accurate passesContext 398

87% Pass accuracyContext 84%

6.80 Team ratingContext 6.86

12.30 FoulsContext 12.00

9.70 Fouls sufferedContext 11.00

2.20 Yellow cardsContext 1.60

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Paris FC WWDWL

Rest7.9 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km881 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 70 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +3.2 vs expected

L10 OctA · Lorient0–11.4 xPts
W19 SepH · Strasbourg2–11.5 xPts
D12 SepH · Lyon0–01.4 xPts
W6 SepA · Marseille3–20.8 xPts
W30 AugH · Nice3–01.7 xPts

Rennes WDLWW

Rest2.8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d2all competitions

Travel308 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load14%Low

Form 67 · 10 pts vs 8.1 for an average club · +1.4 vs expected

W15 OctH · OFI2–12.2 xPts
W11 OctH · Auxerre4–12.1 xPts
L19 SepA · Lyon0–41.2 xPts
D16 SepA · Sturm Graz0–01.4 xPts
W11 SepH · Marseille1–01.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Paris FC	Rennes
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 14
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	7.9Ligue 1 2026-2027, 10 Oct	2.8UEFA Europa League 2026-2027 - League phase, 15 Oct
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	308 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	881 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 1	2 / 2 / 2
Next matchdays after this one	6.1	4.1

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Paris FC Confirmed XI

4-2-3-1

1K. Trapp(G)

14H. Traoré 42D. Coppola 31Samir Sophian Chergui 17Adama Camara

33P. Lees-Melou 20M. Lopez

15L. Koleosho 7P. Pagis 10I. Kebbal

9L. Sinayoko

+3 more reported missing outside this XI

Rennes Confirmed XI

4-3-3

30B. Samba(G)

95P. Frankowski 24A. Rouault 4C. Cresswell 14B. Reynolds

28A. Thomasson 6D. Cissé 17S. Szymański

90I. Soumaré 9E. Lepaul 10L. Blas

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Paris FC Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals

Attack line −3.0% · Defence line −10.6% of weighted minutes

DEF N. Sangui Rotation 6.48 Def −4.6%
MID J. Ikoné Rotation 6.76 Att −2.0% Def −1.7%
DEF Samir Sophian Chergui Rotation 6.50 Def −3.3%
MID V. Marchetti Rotation 6.60 Att −1.1% Def −0.9%

Rennes No reported absences

Total impact vs full squads

Paris FC-0.8 pp
Draw-0.2 pp
Rennes+0.9 pp

From eScored squad data: each player's weight is his role (core 3, starter 2, rotation 1, depth 0.5) times his share of minutes. Defenders and keepers count to the defence line, forwards to attack, midfielders half to each. EloLambda turns the lost share into fewer goals scored and more conceded (weight 0.1); the totals show how that moves the result chances.

Home / Away this season

Paris FC · Home 2.33points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 2-1-0
Scored: 1.67
Conceded: 0.33

Rennes · Away 1.50points per game · 2 away games

W-D-L: 1-0-1
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 2.50

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Paris FC	Rennes
Lyon	D 0–0 H	L 0–4 A
Marseille	W 3–2 A	W 1–0 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings

0 Paris FC wins0 draws2 Rennes wins

Goals per game0.50 – 1.50 Over 2.550% Both scored50% Clean sheets0% · 50%

10 May 2026Rennes2–1Paris FC
7 Nov 2025Paris FC0–1Rennes

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Paris FC	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.33	2.00
Conceded per game	0.67	1.67
Match goals	2.00	3.67	3.12
Over 1.5	50%	83%
Over 2.5	50%	83%	60%
Over 3.5	17%	67%
Both teams scored	33%	67%	63%
Clean sheets	50%	17%
Failed to score	50%	17%
Games	6	6

	Paris FC	Rennes	Forecast
Scored per game	1.50	1.70
Conceded per game	0.80	1.50
Match goals	2.30	3.20	3.12
Over 1.5	60%	80%
Over 2.5	60%	80%	60%
Over 3.5	20%	50%
Both teams scored	40%	70%	63%
Clean sheets	40%	20%
Failed to score	40%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Paris FC	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.20	7.40
Corners conceded	4.20	6.20
Match total	8.40	13.60	9.70
Over 8.5	40% 2/5	80% 4/5
Over 9.5	20% 1/5	80% 4/5
Over 10.5	20% 1/5	80% 4/5
Cards
Cards	2.17	2.17
Opponent cards	1.17	2.33
Match total	3.34	4.50	3.34
Over 3.5	33% 2/6	83% 5/6
Over 4.5	33% 2/6	50% 3/6

	Paris FC	Rennes	League
Corners
Corners won	4.44	8.00
Corners conceded	4.00	5.00
Match total	8.44	13.00	9.70
Over 8.5	56% 5/9	89% 8/9
Over 9.5	44% 4/9	78% 7/9
Over 10.5	11% 1/9	67% 6/9
Cards
Cards	2.30	1.60
Opponent cards	1.00	2.30
Match total	3.30	3.90	3.34
Over 3.5	30% 3/10	70% 7/10
Over 4.5	30% 3/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Referee · Bastein Dechepy 1 matches before this one

Per match, all competitions

Yellow cards4.00league 3.20

Red cards1.00league 0.14

Cards 5+100%league 25%

Fouls29.0league 23.7

Penalties0.00league 0.37

Home wins100%league 42%

Paris FC

No previous matches with this referee.

Rennes

No previous matches with this referee.

From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.