Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
No forecast yet.
Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.
Away travel686 kmRest days6.8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Paris Saint Germain—%
Draw—%
Nice—%
Weather (Paris)
Forecast from 1 May
Referee—Not appointed yet
Key insights
Automatic descriptive highlights for Paris Saint Germain and Nice. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.
Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.
xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.
Headlines
-
Insight
Paris Saint Germain
+1.09
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.37xG against1.28
-
Trend
Paris Saint Germain
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored -
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
6
Wins in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row
Attack
-
Insight
Paris Saint Germain
+1.09
xG difference per match
Underlying performance · 10-match window
xG for2.37xG against1.28
-
Trend
Paris Saint Germain
2.7
Goals scored per match
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
-
Trend
Paris Saint Germain
89%
Both teams scored
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Both teams scored
Defence
Not enough recorded data for this category yet.
Streaks
-
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
6
Wins in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Wins in a row -
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
6
Unbeaten in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Unbeaten in a row -
Streak
Paris Saint Germain
9
Scoring in a row
Last 9 recorded matches · all competitions
Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row
Team strength
Paris Saint Germain
Nice
—
L90 StrengthIn forecast
—
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
27
91
AttackIn forecast
26
83
DefenceIn forecast
35
96
Form indexContext
44
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisNice
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainNice
2.00
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.86
1.29
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
2.65
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.16
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.53
-0.65
Goals minus xGContext
-0.26
100%
Scored inContext
57%
14%
Clean sheetsContext
14%
20.57
ShotsContext
11.71
7.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.71
35%
On target shareContext
32%
11.71
Shots in the boxContext
7.57
56%
Box shareContext
65%
10%
ConversionContext
7%
3.20
OffsidesContext
3.00
10.86
Shots allowedContext
11.86
4.14
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.43
2.17
BlocksContext
3.00
4.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.86
83%
Save rateContext
65%
68%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
708
PassesContext
546
637
Accurate passesContext
478
90%
Pass accuracyContext
88%
7.03
Team ratingContext
6.73
5.71
FoulsContext
9.29
11.29
Fouls sufferedContext
8.14
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.86
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
2.50
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
0.80
1.30
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
2.37
xGVia Att/Def
1.12
1.28
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.23
+0.13
Goals minus xGContext
-0.32
100%
Scored inContext
60%
10%
Clean sheetsContext
20%
21.50
ShotsContext
12.00
7.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.60
36%
On target shareContext
30%
12.50
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
56%
Box shareContext
68%
12%
ConversionContext
7%
3.33
OffsidesContext
2.70
11.90
Shots allowedContext
12.60
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.22
BlocksContext
3.60
4.14
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
78%
Save rateContext
67%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
702
PassesContext
508
632
Accurate passesContext
439
90%
Pass accuracyContext
86%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.75
7.00
FoulsContext
9.40
11.20
Fouls sufferedContext
9.70
1.00
Yellow cardsContext
1.70
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
WWWWW
Rest6.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km791 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 96 · 15 pts vs 6.2 for an average club · +4.9 vs expected
Nice
DLWWL
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel686 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 44 · 7 pts vs 7.6 for an average club · +1.6 vs expected
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Nice |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 6.8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 9 May | 8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 8 May |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 686 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 791 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 1 / 1 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6 | 6 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Last XI · not confirmed
39M. Safonov(G)
12L. Digne
21L. Hernández
6I. Zabarnyi
33W. Zaïre-Emery
4Beraldo
27Dro Fernández
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
9Ferran Torres
11M. Akliouche
Nice
Last XI · not confirmed
23Y. Diouf(G)
35X. Mandza Tsiendi
55Y. Ndayishimiye
5M. Mohamed Ahmed
27N. Nkounkou
6H. Boudaoui
28A. Witsel
92J. Clauss
9M. Amoura
7G. Hein
11S. Wahi
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Nice
Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads
—
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
1.50points per game · 2 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-0-1
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 1.50
Nice · Away
0.00points per game · 3 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-0-3
- Scored
- 0.33
- Conceded
- 2.00
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 3 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| Strasbourg | W 3–1 A | W 2–1 H |
| Le Mans | W 3–1 H | D 1–1 H |
| Lille | D 2–2 A | W 2–1 H |
| Points | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game | 7 of 9 · 2.33 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 10 of 10 meetings
5 Paris Saint Germain wins2 draws3 Nice wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.00
Over 2.550%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets40% · 20%
- 21 Mar 2026Nice0–4Paris Saint Germain
- 1 Nov 2025Paris Saint Germain1–0Nice
- 25 Apr 2025Paris Saint Germain1–3Nice
- 6 Oct 2024Nice1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 15 May 2024Nice1–2Paris Saint Germain
- 15 Sep 2023Paris Saint Germain2–3Nice
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.00 | 0.86 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.29 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 3.29 | 2.14 | |
| Over 1.5 | 86% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 86% | 57% | |
| Over 3.5 | 57% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 86% | 57% | |
| Clean sheets | 14% | 14% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 43% | |
| Games | 7 | 7 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.50 | 0.80 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.40 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 3.90 | 2.00 | |
| Over 1.5 | 90% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 90% | 50% | |
| Over 3.5 | 60% | 0% | |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% | |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 4.75 | 5.71 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.25 | 3.00 | |
| Match total | 8.00 | 8.71 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 2/4 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 1/4 | 57% 4/7 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/4 | 29% 2/7 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.86 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.43 | 0.86 | |
| Match total | 3.43 | 2.72 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 43% 3/7 | 43% 3/7 | |
| Over 4.5 | 29% 2/7 | 14% 1/7 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Nice | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.57 | 5.70 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.14 | 4.30 | |
| Match total | 9.71 | 10.00 | 9.63 |
| Over 8.5 | 71% 5/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 43% 3/7 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 29% 2/7 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.00 | 1.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 1.20 | |
| Match total | 3.30 | 2.90 | 3.47 |
| Over 3.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 30% 3/10 | 20% 2/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain7 games · scored 14 · conceded 9
1
1
0-15
1
2
16-30
1
1
31-45
2
46-60
5
2
61-75
6
1
76-90
Nice7 games · scored 6 · conceded 9
1
0-15
2
1
16-30
2
3
31-45
1
46-60
1
1
61-75
1
2
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 25 · conceded 13
3
2
0-15
3
2
16-30
3
1
31-45
2
4
46-60
7
3
61-75
7
1
76-90
Nice10 games · scored 8 · conceded 12
1
1
0-15
2
2
16-30
2
3
31-45
2
46-60
1
2
61-75
2
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Soon
Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.
