Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
Stade Brestois 29 10th · 9 pts · 7 played
VS— Compare
LE Havre 18th · 2 pts · 7 played
Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →
Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel357 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1
Real contextStrength only
Stade Brestois 29—%
Draw—%
LE Havre—%
Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.
Weather (Brest)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Automatic descriptive highlights for Stade Brestois 29 and LE Havre. These describe recorded performance and do not change the match forecast. Each metric is ordered within its own type; types alternate to keep the selection varied. Up to six distinct signals per category, with at most three per team.

Result statistics require at least five known completed matches. They use the last ten recorded results across all competitions, or the last eight away results. Future, special and invalid results are excluded; missing results can interrupt real-world sequences, so streaks refer to recorded results. 10+ means at least ten within the window.

Bars run oldest to newest. Height shows goals scored, or goals conceded in conceding cards, on the same 0–6 scale. Six or more goals use maximum height; zero retains a small marker. Colour shows the result: teal = win, amber = draw, red = loss. In event and streak cards, solid bars mark the event and faded bars mark its absence. Hover for the date, full score and event. xG and points cards compare their two inputs, not a fabricated history.

xG Difference uses the observed pre-match Playing style averages already shown for this fixture. Window size is not xG coverage, and the two averages can have different denominators. Result statistics use completed matches recorded up to now; their window can differ from the Playing style profile. Season points and xPts are not included here.

Headlines

Headlines insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Attack

Attack insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Defence

Defence insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Streaks

Streaks insights

All qualifying highlights · metric types alternate, not a combined ranking

Team strength

Stade Brestois 29LE Havre
— L90 StrengthIn forecast —
34 Current StrengthIn forecast 20
47 AttackIn forecast 20
36 DefenceIn forecast 22
49 Form indexContext 6
In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Stade Brestois 29

Attack—
Defense risk—

LE Havre

Attack—
Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Stade Brestois 29LE Havre
1.86 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.71
1.43 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.57
2.55 xGVia Att/Def 1.01
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.79
-0.69 Goals minus xGContext -0.30
86% Scored inContext 57%
0% Clean sheetsContext 14%
17.14 ShotsContext 15.57
5.86 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.71
34% On target shareContext 30%
11.29 Shots in the boxContext 10.29
63% Box shareContext 66%
11% ConversionContext 5%
2.40 OffsidesContext 1.71
11.71 Shots allowedContext 12.86
4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.86
2.57 BlocksContext 3.67
3.67 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.83
76% Save rateContext 70%
46% PossessionIn forecast 50%
408 PassesContext 408
333 Accurate passesContext 340
82% Pass accuracyContext 83%
6.83 Team ratingContext 6.62
14.14 FoulsContext 14.57
13.29 Fouls sufferedContext 15.00
1.29 Yellow cardsContext 1.57
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.29
This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games
1.50 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 0.80
1.40 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.30
2.02 xGVia Att/Def 0.95
1.29 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.59
-0.52 Goals minus xGContext -0.15
80% Scored inContext 60%
0% Clean sheetsContext 20%
16.10 ShotsContext 12.70
5.30 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 4.10
33% On target shareContext 32%
10.70 Shots in the boxContext 9.22
64% Box shareContext 67%
9% ConversionContext 6%
2.43 OffsidesContext 2.10
12.30 Shots allowedContext 13.10
4.40 On target allowedVia Att/Def 4.90
3.30 BlocksContext 3.78
3.33 Goalkeeper savesContext 4.00
71% Save rateContext 75%
46% PossessionIn forecast 47%
414 PassesContext 381
340 Accurate passesContext 312
82% Pass accuracyContext 82%
6.86 Team ratingContext 6.70
12.80 FoulsContext 14.70
11.70 Fouls sufferedContext 14.70
1.00 Yellow cardsContext 1.90
0.00 Red cardsContext 0.20
Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games
In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Stade Brestois 29
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Form 49 · 7 pts vs 7.2 for an average club · +0.6 vs expected
  • D17 OctA · Lille1–11.0 xPts
  • W10 OctH · Angers5–11.9 xPts
  • L20 SepA · Auxerre1–21.5 xPts
  • L13 SepH · Paris Saint Germain0–10.7 xPts
  • W5 SepA · LE Havre2–11.4 xPts
LE Havre
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel357 km403 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Form 6 · 1 pts vs 8.5 for an average club · -5.1 vs expected
  • L18 OctH · Auxerre1–31.6 xPts
  • L10 OctA · Lille0–10.6 xPts
  • L19 SepA · Toulouse2–30.9 xPts
  • D12 SepH · Angers0–01.6 xPts
  • L5 SepH · Stade Brestois 291–21.4 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery
Stade Brestois 29 LE Havre
Schedule loaddescriptive index, contextLow · 0Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecastNoNo
Rest dayssince last match8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 8 May8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium0 km357 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways0 km403 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days0 / 1 / 30 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one66

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Stade Brestois 29 Last XI · not confirmed
4-2-3-1 · vs Lille (A) 1–1, 17 Oct
1E. Selvik(G)
2B. Locko 4G. Lloris 29L. Tousart 70K. Lala
8H. Magnetti 13J. Chotard
9P. Mboup 23K. Doumbia 17M. Baldé
19L. Ajorque
LE Havre Last XI · not confirmed
4-3-3 · vs Auxerre (H) 1–3, 18 Oct
93G. Gallon(G)
5A. Touba 6J. Mwanga 20D. Ouziad
7M. Richardson 26S. Ebonog 14R. Ndiaye
25M. Samatta 9J. Maja 30S. Nakamura

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences
Stade Brestois 29 Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
LE Havre Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh
Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Stade Brestois 29 · Home 1.33points per game · 3 home games
W-D-L
1-1-1
Scored
2.33
Conceded
1.33
LE Havre · Away 0.33points per game · 3 away games
W-D-L
0-1-2
Scored
1.00
Conceded
1.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 4 this season

OpponentStade Brestois 29LE Havre
Lille D 1–1 A L 0–1 A
Angers W 5–1 H D 0–0 H
Auxerre L 1–2 A L 1–3 H
Toulouse D 2–2 H L 2–3 A
Points5 of 12 · 1.25 per game1 of 12 · 0.25 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

6 Stade Brestois 29 wins0 draws1 LE Havre wins
Goals per game1.43 – 0.43 Over 2.529% Both scored29% Clean sheets57% · 14%
  • 5 Sep 2026LE Havre1–2Stade Brestois 29
  • 8 Mar 2026Stade Brestois 292–0LE Havre
  • 29 Oct 2025LE Havre1–0Stade Brestois 29
  • 26 Jan 2025LE Havre0–1Stade Brestois 29
  • 6 Oct 2024Stade Brestois 292–0LE Havre
  • 3 Mar 2024Stade Brestois 291–0LE Havre

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

Stade Brestois 29LE HavreForecast
Scored per game 1.860.71
Conceded per game 1.431.57
Match goals 3.292.29
Over 1.5 86%57%
Over 2.5 71%43%
Over 3.5 43%29%
Both teams scored 86%57%
Clean sheets 0%14%
Failed to score 14%43%
Games77
Stade Brestois 29LE HavreForecast
Scored per game 1.500.80
Conceded per game 1.401.30
Match goals 2.902.10
Over 1.5 80%60%
Over 2.5 60%30%
Over 3.5 30%20%
Both teams scored 80%50%
Clean sheets 0%20%
Failed to score 20%40%
Games1010

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

Stade Brestois 29LE HavreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.865.71
Corners conceded4.004.86
Match total8.8610.579.63
Over 8.571% 5/7100% 7/7
Over 9.543% 3/786% 6/7
Over 10.529% 2/743% 3/7
Cards
Cards1.291.86
Opponent cards1.711.57
Match total3.003.433.47
Over 3.514% 1/743% 3/7
Over 4.514% 1/729% 2/7
Stade Brestois 29LE HavreLeague
Corners
Corners won4.705.11
Corners conceded4.605.67
Match total9.3010.789.63
Over 8.580% 8/1089% 8/9
Over 9.540% 4/1078% 7/9
Over 10.530% 3/1044% 4/9
Cards
Cards1.002.10
Opponent cards1.401.70
Match total2.403.803.47
Over 3.510% 1/1050% 5/10
Over 4.510% 1/1040% 4/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.

Goal timing

Stade Brestois 297 games · scored 13 · conceded 10
3 2 0-15
4 16-30
2 1 31-45
2 3 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 2 76-90
LE Havre7 games · scored 5 · conceded 11
3 0-15
16-30
1 31-45
3 46-60
3 1 61-75
2 3 76-90
Stade Brestois 2910 games · scored 15 · conceded 14
4 3 0-15
4 1 16-30
2 1 31-45
3 4 46-60
1 2 61-75
1 3 76-90
LE Havre10 games · scored 8 · conceded 13
3 0-15
1 16-30
2 1 31-45
4 46-60
4 1 61-75
2 3 76-90

scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.

Scenario lab Soon

Real contextLOAD90 forecast: EloLambda plus playing style (possession) and High Congestion.
Pure EloLambdaControl forecast without the LOAD90 factors, as on eScored.
Strength onlyElo and home edge only.
Full squadsBoth teams with every player available.
Neutral venueRemove home advantage.

Next fixtures Ligue 1

View all fixtures →
Lille Angers May 1616:00 Lyon Le Mans May 1616:00 Marseille Lens May 1616:00 Paris Saint Germain Nice May 1616:00 Monaco Paris FC May 1616:00 Strasbourg Estac Troyes May 1616:00 Toulouse Lorient May 1616:00 Stade Brestois 29 LE Havre May 1616:00 Auxerre Rennes May 1616:00