Toulouse vs Lorient – 16 May 2027

Ligue 1 Gameweek 32 Sun, May 16 · 16:00 Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse

Toulouse 11th · 9 pts · 7 played LDWDW

VS— Compare

Lorient 7th · 11 pts · 7 played WDLWW

Get full prediction oneScoredOdds · Value · Detailed stats →

Our take

No forecast yet.

Forecasts are published up to 21 days before kick-off.

Away travel593 kmRest days8 · 8Matches / 14d1 · 1

Real contextStrength only

Toulouse—%

Draw—%

Lorient—%

Expected goals — – — No forecast for this match yet. Forecasts are published up to 21 days ahead.

Weather (Toulouse)

Forecast from 1 May

Referee—Not appointed yet

Key insights

Headlines

Attack

Defence

Streaks

Streak Lorient 6 Scoring in a row Last 7 recorded matches · all competitions Goals scored · W/D/L colours
Solid = Scoring in a row

Team strength

Toulouse

Lorient

— L90 StrengthIn forecast —

39 Current StrengthIn forecast 34

45 AttackIn forecast 28

49 DefenceIn forecast 45

54 Form indexContext 69

In forecastContext

L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.

Match Opportunity

Full analysis

Toulouse

Attack—

Defense risk—

Lorient

Attack—

Defense risk—

Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.

Playing style

Toulouse

Lorient

1.71 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.00

1.57 Goals concededVia Att/Def 0.86

1.80 xGVia Att/Def 1.16

1.39 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.08

-0.09 Goals minus xGContext -0.16

71% Scored inContext 86%

14% Clean sheetsContext 57%

13.57 ShotsContext 9.86

4.57 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.43

34% On target shareContext 35%

9.00 Shots in the boxContext 6.71

65% Box shareContext 70%

13% ConversionContext 10%

2.17 OffsidesContext 1.25

14.43 Shots allowedContext 13.86

4.43 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.71

4.00 BlocksContext 4.71

2.86 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.33

65% Save rateContext 83%

50% PossessionIn forecast 46%

500 PassesContext 482

430 Accurate passesContext 408

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.88 Team ratingContext 6.86

15.43 FoulsContext 9.29

13.00 Fouls sufferedContext 15.14

1.57 Yellow cardsContext 1.14

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

This league season, per match · 7 and 7 games

1.60 Goals scoredVia Att/Def 1.30

1.30 Goals concededVia Att/Def 1.00

1.39 xGVia Att/Def 1.24

1.06 xG allowedVia Att/Def 1.16

+0.21 Goals minus xGContext +0.06

70% Scored inContext 80%

20% Clean sheetsContext 50%

12.70 ShotsContext 9.80

4.50 Shots on targetVia Att/Def 3.40

35% On target shareContext 35%

8.11 Shots in the boxContext 6.10

62% Box shareContext 65%

13% ConversionContext 13%

2.29 OffsidesContext 1.43

12.80 Shots allowedContext 13.60

3.90 On target allowedVia Att/Def 3.80

4.33 BlocksContext 4.78

2.60 Goalkeeper savesContext 3.22

67% Save rateContext 81%

48% PossessionIn forecast 46%

428 PassesContext 458

366 Accurate passesContext 390

86% Pass accuracyContext 85%

6.87 Team ratingContext 6.83

14.60 FoulsContext 9.10

11.00 Fouls sufferedContext 13.40

1.90 Yellow cardsContext 1.30

0.00 Red cardsContext 0.00

Last 10 matches, all competitions, per match · 10 and 10 games

In forecastVia Att/DefContext

In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.

Recent performance last 5 · schedule

Toulouse LDWDW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel0 km914 km in 14d

Schedule load0%Low

Form 54 · 8 pts vs 7.5 for an average club · +1.7 vs expected

W16 OctA · Le Mans3–01.4 xPts
D10 OctA · Monaco2–20.7 xPts
W19 SepH · LE Havre3–21.9 xPts
D12 SepA · Lorient2–21.1 xPts
L3 SepH · Lille0–11.1 xPts

Lorient WDLWW

Rest8 dayssince last match

Matches / 14d1all competitions

Travel593 km0 km in 14d

Schedule load6%Low

Form 69 · 10 pts vs 7.7 for an average club · +4.0 vs expected

W18 OctH · Monaco1–01.2 xPts
W10 OctH · Paris FC1–01.4 xPts
L19 SepA · Le Mans1–21.3 xPts
D12 SepH · Toulouse2–21.6 xPts
W5 SepA · Lens1–00.6 xPts

Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.

Full schedule & recovery

	Toulouse	Lorient
Schedule loaddescriptive index, context	Low · 0	Low · 6
High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast	No	No
Rest dayssince last match	8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 8 May	8Ligue 1 2026-2027, 8 May
Travel to venuefrom home stadium	0 km	593 km
Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways	914 km	0 km
Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days	0 / 1 / 3	0 / 1 / 3
Next matchdays after this one	6	6

All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.

Squad & lineups

Toulouse Last XI · not confirmed

4-2-3-1 · vs Le Mans (A) 3–0, 16 Oct

16G. Restes(G)

12C. Tapé 2R. Nicolaisen 3M. McKenzie 22R. Messali

14N. Sigur 23C. Cásseres

8T. Jørgensen 20C. Tengstedt 15A. Dønnum

13J. Russell-Rowe

Lorient Last XI · not confirmed

3-4-2-1 · vs Monaco (H) 1–0, 18 Oct

38Y. Mvogo(G)

95S. Touré 3M. Talbi 32N. Adjei

43Arsène Kouassi 62A. Avom 8Noah Cadiou 20D. Sylla

33Gabin Bernardeau 17J. Makengo

18I. Baldé

Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.

Key absences

Toulouse Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Lorient Squad list arrives with the next forecast refresh

Total impact vs full squads —

Home / Away this season

Toulouse · Home 1.00points per game · 3 home games

W-D-L: 1-0-2
Scored: 1.00
Conceded: 1.67

Lorient · Away 1.33points per game · 3 away games

W-D-L: 1-1-1
Scored: 0.67
Conceded: 0.67

Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.

Common opponents 2 this season

Opponent	Toulouse	Lorient
Le Mans	W 3–0 A	L 1–2 A
Monaco	D 2–2 A	W 1–0 H
Points	4 of 6 · 2.00 per game	3 of 6 · 1.50 per game

League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.

Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings

3 Toulouse wins4 draws0 Lorient wins

Goals per game1.43 – 1.00 Over 2.543% Both scored71% Clean sheets29% · 0%

12 Sep 2026Lorient2–2Toulouse
21 Mar 2026Toulouse1–0Lorient
9 Nov 2025Lorient1–1Toulouse
28 Apr 2024Lorient1–2Toulouse
3 Dec 2023Toulouse1–1Lorient
23 Apr 2023Lorient0–1Toulouse

All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.

Goals & match trends

	Toulouse	Lorient
Scored per game	1.71	1.00
Conceded per game	1.57	0.86
Match goals	3.29	1.86
Over 1.5	86%	43%
Over 2.5	71%	43%
Over 3.5	57%	14%
Both teams scored	57%	43%
Clean sheets	14%	57%
Failed to score	29%	14%
Games	7	7

	Toulouse	Lorient
Scored per game	1.60	1.30
Conceded per game	1.30	1.00
Match goals	2.90	2.30
Over 1.5	80%	60%
Over 2.5	70%	50%
Over 3.5	40%	30%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Clean sheets	20%	50%
Failed to score	30%	20%
Games	10	10

Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.

Corners & cards

	Toulouse	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.14	3.00
Corners conceded	4.43	5.17
Match total	8.57	8.17	9.63
Over 8.5	43% 3/7	33% 2/6
Over 9.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Over 10.5	29% 2/7	33% 2/6
Cards
Cards	1.57	1.14
Opponent cards	1.43	2.29
Match total	3.00	3.43	3.47
Over 3.5	43% 3/7	57% 4/7
Over 4.5	14% 1/7	43% 3/7

	Toulouse	Lorient	League
Corners
Corners won	4.10	3.11
Corners conceded	4.90	5.67
Match total	9.00	8.78	9.63
Over 8.5	50% 5/10	44% 4/9
Over 9.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Over 10.5	40% 4/10	44% 4/9
Cards
Cards	2.00	1.30
Opponent cards	1.30	2.00
Match total	3.30	3.30	3.47
Over 3.5	50% 5/10	50% 5/10
Over 4.5	20% 2/10	30% 3/10

Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.