Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
2nd · 30 pts · 14 played
DWWWL
5–0Full time
Rennes
5th · 24 pts · 14 played
DWWWW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (89 vs 44). Absences weigh more on Paris Saint Germain. Paris Saint Germain had 7.2 days of rest, Rennes 8 and had to travel 308 km.
Away travel308 kmRest days7.2 · 8Matches / 14d2 · 1
Paris Saint Germain78%
Draw14%
Rennes8%
Paris Saint Germain77%
Draw15%
Rennes8%
Paris Saint Germain79%
Draw14%
Rennes7%
Paris Saint Germain72%
Draw18%
Rennes11%
Paris Saint Germain76%
Draw16%
Rennes8%
Over 2.5 67%
Both score 50%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceMarc Bollengier
- Cards per match 3.6
- Penalties per match 0.32
- Matches 57
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainRennes
89
L90 StrengthIn forecast
44
89
Current StrengthIn forecast
52
91
AttackIn forecast
63
83
DefenceIn forecast
39
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisRennes
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainRennes
1.93
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.71
0.86
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.29
1.58
xGVia Att/Def
1.46
0.88
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.54
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.25
86%
Scored inContext
86%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
29%
16.93
ShotsContext
12.57
6.14
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.64
36%
On target shareContext
37%
9.64
Shots in the boxContext
8.38
56%
Box shareContext
65%
11%
ConversionContext
14%
1.44
OffsidesContext
2.15
8.71
Shots allowedContext
13.71
3.33
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.50
2.82
BlocksContext
4.77
2.60
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.69
70%
Save rateContext
75%
71%
PossessionIn forecast
51%
733
PassesContext
455
672
Accurate passesContext
387
92%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
7.00
Team ratingContext
6.92
10.07
FoulsContext
11.14
9.00
Fouls sufferedContext
12.00
1.21
Yellow cardsContext
1.71
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.21
2.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.90
1.40
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.20
1.82
xGVia Att/Def
1.59
1.27
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.38
+0.88
Goals minus xGContext
+0.31
90%
Scored inContext
90%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
18.70
ShotsContext
12.30
6.80
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.70
36%
On target shareContext
38%
10.90
Shots in the boxContext
8.00
58%
Box shareContext
66%
14%
ConversionContext
15%
1.86
OffsidesContext
1.80
8.40
Shots allowedContext
12.80
3.60
On target allowedVia Att/Def
2.80
1.88
BlocksContext
4.30
2.50
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.22
63%
Save rateContext
77%
70%
PossessionIn forecast
53%
703
PassesContext
450
642
Accurate passesContext
381
91%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.97
Team ratingContext
6.95
9.70
FoulsContext
11.20
9.20
Fouls sufferedContext
11.70
1.50
Yellow cardsContext
1.80
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest7.2 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel0 km1,378 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Rennes
Rest8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel308 km1,169 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Rennes |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 7.2Ligue 1 2025-2026, 29 Nov | 8Ligue 1 2025-2026, 28 Nov |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 308 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,378 km | 1,169 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 2 / 3 | 0 / 1 / 2 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 6.9 | 6.8 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
5Marquinhos
33W. Zaïre-Emery
24S. Mayulu
17Vitinha
87João Neves
7K. Kvaratskhelia
19K. Lee
29B. Barcola
Rennes
Confirmed XI
30B. Samba(G)
3L. Brassier
97J. Jacquet
48A. Aït Boudlal
11Mousa Al Ta'mari
6D. Cissé
21V. Rongier
45M. Camara
95P. Frankowski
9E. Lepaul
7B. Embolo
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Rennes
Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain-1.1 pp
- Draw+0.5 pp
- Rennes+0.6 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.67points per game · 6 home games
- W-D-L
- 5-1-0
- Scored
- 2.00
- Conceded
- 0.50
Rennes · Away
1.43points per game · 7 away games
- W-D-L
- 2-4-1
- Scored
- 1.29
- Conceded
- 1.57
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 12 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| Monaco | L 0–1 A | W 4–1 H |
| LE Havre | W 3–0 H | D 2–2 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 A | W 3–1 H |
| Nice | W 1–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | L 0–4 A |
| Strasbourg | D 3–3 H | W 4–1 H |
| Auxerre | W 2–0 H | D 2–2 H |
| Marseille | L 0–1 A | W 1–0 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | D 0–0 H |
| Toulouse | W 6–3 A | D 2–2 A |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | D 1–1 A |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Points | 26 of 36 · 2.17 per game | 18 of 36 · 1.50 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 8 of 8 meetings
4 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws3 Rennes wins
Goals per game1.50 – 1.13
Over 2.538%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets13% · 38%
- 8 Mar 2025Rennes1–4Paris Saint Germain
- 27 Sep 2024Paris Saint Germain3–1Rennes
- 25 Feb 2024Paris Saint Germain1–1Rennes
- 8 Oct 2023Rennes1–3Paris Saint Germain
- 19 Mar 2023Paris Saint Germain0–2Rennes
- 15 Jan 2023Rennes1–0Paris Saint Germain
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.93 | 1.71 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.86 | 1.29 | |
| Match goals | 2.79 | 3.00 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 64% | 71% | |
| Over 2.5 | 36% | 64% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 21% | 57% | |
| Both teams scored | 36% | 64% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 29% | |
| Failed to score | 14% | 14% | |
| Games | 14 | 14 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Rennes | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 1.70 | 1.90 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.90 | 1.20 | |
| Match goals | 2.60 | 3.10 | 3.45 |
| Over 1.5 | 70% | 70% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 67% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 60% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.17 | 5.07 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.33 | 4.50 | |
| Match total | 8.50 | 9.57 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 50% 6/12 | 64% 9/14 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 3/12 | 43% 6/14 | |
| Over 10.5 | 8% 1/12 | 29% 4/14 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.21 | 1.93 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.86 | 2.43 | |
| Match total | 3.07 | 4.36 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 29% 4/14 | 71% 10/14 | |
| Over 4.5 | 14% 2/14 | 50% 7/14 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Rennes | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.33 | 5.60 | |
| Corners conceded | 2.78 | 4.40 | |
| Match total | 8.11 | 10.00 | 9.31 |
| Over 8.5 | 56% 5/9 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 11% 1/9 | 50% 5/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 0% 0/9 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.70 | 1.80 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.30 | 2.00 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.09 |
| Over 3.5 | 50% 5/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marc Bollengier France · 57 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.35league 3.74
Red cards0.26league 0.32
Cards 5+28%league 37%
Fouls26.2league 24.1
Penalties0.32league 0.48
Home wins37%league 51%
Paris Saint Germain5 with this referee
Record4-1-0
Cards · opp.1.2 · 2.2
Pens for · against0 · 0
- W5 Apr 25H · Angers1–00
- W23 Aug 24H · Montpellier6–01
- W24 Apr 24A · Lorient4–11
- D30 Sep 23A · Clermont Foot0–03
- W11 Mar 23A · Stade Brestois 292–11
Rennes6 with this referee
Record3-1-2
Cards · opp.1.3 · 1.7
Pens for · against3 · 0
- L26 Oct 25H · Nice1–25
- D31 Aug 25A · Angers1–12
- L26 Apr 25A · Lyon1–40
- W21 Feb 25H · Reims1–01
- W30 Nov 24H · Saint Etienne5–00
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain14 games · scored 27 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
4
2
31-45
6
3
46-60
3
1
61-75
6
3
76-90
Rennes14 games · scored 24 · conceded 18
2
2
0-15
6
16-30
2
4
31-45
6
3
46-60
2
4
61-75
6
5
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 27 · conceded 14
2
1
0-15
3
2
16-30
6
4
31-45
5
5
46-60
4
2
61-75
7
76-90
Rennes10 games · scored 19 · conceded 12
2
1
0-15
5
16-30
2
3
31-45
6
1
46-60
2
2
61-75
2
5
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
