Paris Saint Germain
Attack—
Defense risk—
Paris Saint Germain
1st · 60 pts · 26 played
LWWLW
3–1Full time
Toulouse
9th · 37 pts · 27 played
DLLWW
Our take
Paris Saint Germain were clear favourites.
Paris Saint Germain were the stronger side on L90 Strength (88 vs 36). Paris Saint Germain usually keep the ball (68% on average), which points to more chances at both ends. Paris Saint Germain had 12.9 days of rest, Toulouse 13.1 and had to travel 588 km.
Away travel588 kmRest days12.9 · 13.1Matches / 14d1 · 1
Paris Saint Germain83%
Draw12%
Toulouse5%
Paris Saint Germain80%
Draw14%
Toulouse6%
Paris Saint Germain82%
Draw12%
Toulouse6%
Paris Saint Germain77%
Draw15%
Toulouse8%
Paris Saint Germain81%
Draw13%
Toulouse6%
Over 2.5 70%
Both score 46%
Likeliest score 2–0
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Paris)
No weather data yet
Referee · FranceEric Wattellier
- Cards per match 3.4
- Penalties per match 0.37
- Matches 93
Team strength
Paris Saint GermainToulouse
88
L90 StrengthIn forecast
36
90
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
91
AttackIn forecast
45
83
DefenceIn forecast
49
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisToulouse
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
Paris Saint GermainToulouse
2.23
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.41
0.85
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.19
1.88
xGVia Att/Def
1.31
0.82
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.13
+0.35
Goals minus xGContext
+0.10
92%
Scored inContext
67%
54%
Clean sheetsContext
33%
17.19
ShotsContext
12.96
6.58
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
4.41
38%
On target shareContext
34%
10.88
Shots in the boxContext
9.04
63%
Box shareContext
66%
13%
ConversionContext
11%
1.81
OffsidesContext
1.75
8.19
Shots allowedContext
10.74
3.23
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.54
2.68
BlocksContext
3.00
2.35
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.46
69%
Save rateContext
66%
69%
PossessionIn forecast
43%
709
PassesContext
375
648
Accurate passesContext
307
91%
Pass accuracyContext
82%
7.05
Team ratingContext
6.84
9.69
FoulsContext
13.78
9.15
Fouls sufferedContext
11.41
0.92
Yellow cardsContext
2.22
0.04
Red cardsContext
0.07
2.80
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.40
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.00
2.40
xGVia Att/Def
1.21
0.90
xG allowedVia Att/Def
0.97
+0.40
Goals minus xGContext
+0.19
100%
Scored inContext
60%
50%
Clean sheetsContext
30%
17.90
ShotsContext
15.20
6.90
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
5.60
39%
On target shareContext
37%
12.30
Shots in the boxContext
8.80
71%
Box shareContext
55%
16%
ConversionContext
9%
2.20
OffsidesContext
2.00
9.20
Shots allowedContext
10.00
3.89
On target allowedVia Att/Def
3.60
3.00
BlocksContext
2.10
2.56
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.60
66%
Save rateContext
72%
67%
PossessionIn forecast
48%
654
PassesContext
443
594
Accurate passesContext
371
91%
Pass accuracyContext
84%
7.07
Team ratingContext
6.87
9.00
FoulsContext
13.10
11.00
Fouls sufferedContext
11.10
0.50
Yellow cardsContext
2.20
0.00
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Paris Saint Germain
Rest12.9 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km1,372 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Toulouse
Rest13.1 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel588 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load6%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Paris Saint Germain |
Toulouse |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 6 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 12.9Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Mar | 13.1Ligue 1 2025-2026, 21 Mar |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 588 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 1,372 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 2 | 0 / 1 / 3 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 16 | 8.9 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Paris Saint Germain
Confirmed XI
39M. Safonov(G)
21L. Hernández
51W. Pacho
6I. Zabarnyi
2A. Hakimi
14D. Doué
4Beraldo
33W. Zaïre-Emery
7K. Kvaratskhelia
10M. Dembélé
19K. Lee
Toulouse
Confirmed XI
1G. Restes(G)
2R. Nicolaisen
35S. Koumbassa
3M. McKenzie
24D. Methalie
18Pape Diop
23C. Cásseres
19D. Sidibé
10G. Gboho
15A. Dønnum
20Emersonn
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Paris Saint Germain
Scores -0.04 · concedes +0.01 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Toulouse
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.11 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Paris Saint Germain+0.9 pp
- Draw-0.6 pp
- Toulouse-0.3 pp
Home / Away this season
Paris Saint Germain · Home
2.58points per game · 12 home games
- W-D-L
- 10-1-1
- Scored
- 2.58
- Conceded
- 0.58
Toulouse · Away
1.31points per game · 13 away games
- W-D-L
- 5-2-6
- Scored
- 1.31
- Conceded
- 1.15
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 16 this season
| Opponent | Paris Saint Germain | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| Nice | W 4–0 AW 1–0 H | W 5–1 HW 1–0 A |
| Monaco | L 1–3 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 A |
| LE Havre | W 1–0 AW 3–0 H | L 1–2 AD 0–0 H |
| Metz | W 3–0 HW 3–2 A | W 4–3 AW 4–0 H |
| Rennes | L 1–3 AW 5–0 H | L 0–1 AD 2–2 H |
| Marseille | W 5–0 HL 0–1 A | L 0–1 HD 2–2 A |
| Strasbourg | W 2–1 AD 3–3 H | W 1–0 H |
| Auxerre | W 1–0 AW 2–0 H | D 0–0 HL 0–1 A |
| Lille | W 3–0 HD 1–1 A | L 1–2 A |
| Paris FC | W 2–1 H | D 1–1 HW 3–0 A |
| Lyon | W 3–2 A | W 2–1 A |
| Lorient | D 1–1 A | W 1–0 HD 1–1 A |
| Stade Brestois 29 | W 3–0 A | W 2–0 AW 2–0 H |
| Lens | W 2–0 H | L 0–3 H |
| Angers | W 1–0 H | L 0–1 AL 0–1 H |
| Nantes | W 1–0 A | D 2–2 H |
| Points | 57 of 75 · 2.28 per game | 37 of 78 · 1.42 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 7 of 7 meetings
5 Paris Saint Germain wins1 draws1 Toulouse wins
Goals per game2.43 – 1.14
Over 2.571%
Both scored57%
Clean sheets43% · 0%
- 30 Aug 2025Toulouse3–6Paris Saint Germain
- 15 Feb 2025Toulouse0–1Paris Saint Germain
- 22 Nov 2024Paris Saint Germain3–0Toulouse
- 12 May 2024Paris Saint Germain1–3Toulouse
- 19 Aug 2023Toulouse1–1Paris Saint Germain
- 4 Feb 2023Paris Saint Germain2–1Toulouse
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Paris Saint Germain | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.23 | 1.41 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.85 | 1.19 | |
| Match goals | 3.08 | 2.59 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 73% | 59% | |
| Over 2.5 | 58% | 44% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 35% | 26% | |
| Both teams scored | 38% | 41% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 54% | 33% | |
| Failed to score | 8% | 33% | |
| Games | 26 | 27 |
| Paris Saint Germain | Toulouse | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 2.30 | 1.40 | |
| Conceded per game | 0.80 | 1.00 | |
| Match goals | 3.10 | 2.40 | 3.59 |
| Over 1.5 | 80% | 50% | |
| Over 2.5 | 80% | 30% | 70% |
| Over 3.5 | 40% | 20% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 40% | 46% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 30% | |
| Failed to score | 0% | 40% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Paris Saint Germain | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.29 | 4.59 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.13 | 4.74 | |
| Match total | 8.42 | 9.33 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 46% 11/24 | 59% 16/27 | |
| Over 9.5 | 25% 6/24 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Over 10.5 | 13% 3/24 | 44% 12/27 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.96 | 2.30 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.69 | 2.19 | |
| Match total | 2.65 | 4.49 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 23% 6/26 | 74% 20/27 | |
| Over 4.5 | 8% 2/26 | 52% 14/27 | |
| Paris Saint Germain | Toulouse | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 5.00 | 4.90 | |
| Corners conceded | 3.20 | 3.70 | |
| Match total | 8.20 | 8.60 | 9.10 |
| Over 8.5 | 40% 4/10 | 40% 4/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 40% 4/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 30% 3/10 | 30% 3/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 0.50 | 2.20 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.00 | 2.30 | |
| Match total | 2.50 | 4.50 | 4.00 |
| Over 3.5 | 30% 3/10 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 10% 1/10 | 60% 6/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Eric Wattellier France · 93 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards3.14league 3.71
Red cards0.23league 0.28
Cards 5+23%league 37%
Fouls20.6league 23.8
Penalties0.37league 0.37
Home wins48%league 48%
Paris Saint Germain10 with this referee
Record10-0-0
Cards · opp.0.8 · 1.3
Pens for · against5 · 3
Reds1
- W1 Feb 26A · Strasbourg2–11
- W30 Aug 25A · Toulouse6–30
- W23 Feb 25A · Lyon3–21
- W3 Sep 23A · Lyon4–12
- W21 Apr 23A · Angers2–10
Toulouse3 with this referee
Record1-1-1
Cards · opp.1.0 · 1.0
Pens for · against1 · 2
- D29 Nov 25A · Marseille2–21
- L30 Aug 25H · Paris Saint Germain3–61
- W15 Sep 24H · LE Havre2–01
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Paris Saint Germain26 games · scored 58 · conceded 22
8
1
0-15
5
4
16-30
12
4
31-45
8
5
46-60
11
3
61-75
14
5
76-90
Toulouse27 games · scored 38 · conceded 32
6
4
0-15
3
5
16-30
6
7
31-45
5
6
46-60
5
3
61-75
13
7
76-90
Paris Saint Germain10 games · scored 28 · conceded 12
5
1
0-15
1
3
16-30
6
2
31-45
2
2
46-60
9
2
61-75
5
2
76-90
Toulouse10 games · scored 14 · conceded 10
3
0-15
1
3
16-30
4
3
31-45
1
2
46-60
1
61-75
4
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
