Parma
Attack—
Defense risk—
Our take
It was too close to call.
Fiorentina were the stronger side on L90 Strength (41 vs 29). Parma had 13.8 days of rest, Fiorentina 5.8 and had to travel 135 km.
Away travel135 kmRest days13.8 · 5.8Matches / 14d1 · 2
Parma35%
Draw29%
Fiorentina37%
Parma36%
Draw27%
Fiorentina37%
Parma34%
Draw29%
Fiorentina37%
Parma28%
Draw28%
Fiorentina44%
Parma36%
Draw27%
Fiorentina37%
Over 2.5 45%
Both score 51%
Likeliest score 1–1
Rebuilt after the match from pre-match Elo. Real context is the full LOAD90 forecast; Strength only is Elo and home edge alone. How it works.
Weather (Parma)
No weather data yet
Referee · ItalyMarco Guida
- Cards per match 4.2
- Penalties per match 0.38
- Matches 74
Team strength
Parma
Fiorentina
29
L90 StrengthIn forecast
41
28
Current StrengthIn forecast
39
20
AttackIn forecast
42
33
DefenceIn forecast
34
—
Form indexContext
—
In forecastContext
L90 Strength, Attack and Defence come from the same Elo rating and attack and defence ratings the forecast uses. Form index is explained in Recent performance.
Match Opportunity
Full analysisFiorentina
Attack—
Defense risk—
Opportunity unavailable for one or both teams.
Playing style
ParmaFiorentina
0.67
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.06
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.69
0.99
xGVia Att/Def
1.40
1.22
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.45
-0.32
Goals minus xGContext
-0.34
47%
Scored inContext
69%
27%
Clean sheetsContext
13%
10.87
ShotsContext
12.38
3.29
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
2.94
28%
On target shareContext
24%
6.86
Shots in the boxContext
7.88
59%
Box shareContext
61%
6%
ConversionContext
9%
1.58
OffsidesContext
2.50
13.47
Shots allowedContext
13.06
4.27
On target allowedVia Att/Def
5.00
3.93
BlocksContext
3.06
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
3.25
70%
Save rateContext
65%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
52%
324
PassesContext
406
251
Accurate passesContext
338
78%
Pass accuracyContext
83%
6.76
Team ratingContext
6.73
10.67
FoulsContext
12.75
13.80
Fouls sufferedContext
16.56
1.73
Yellow cardsContext
2.31
0.07
Red cardsContext
0.00
0.70
Goals scoredVia Att/Def
1.30
1.20
Goals concededVia Att/Def
1.60
0.95
xGVia Att/Def
1.48
1.32
xG allowedVia Att/Def
1.22
-0.25
Goals minus xGContext
-0.18
50%
Scored inContext
70%
30%
Clean sheetsContext
0%
10.50
ShotsContext
13.20
3.44
Shots on targetVia Att/Def
3.70
30%
On target shareContext
28%
7.00
Shots in the boxContext
9.11
62%
Box shareContext
66%
7%
ConversionContext
10%
1.70
OffsidesContext
2.29
13.50
Shots allowedContext
13.10
4.30
On target allowedVia Att/Def
4.30
3.56
BlocksContext
4.00
3.00
Goalkeeper savesContext
2.90
70%
Save rateContext
67%
42%
PossessionIn forecast
54%
325
PassesContext
457
251
Accurate passesContext
388
77%
Pass accuracyContext
85%
6.79
Team ratingContext
6.81
10.60
FoulsContext
11.40
14.00
Fouls sufferedContext
15.20
1.80
Yellow cardsContext
2.70
0.10
Red cardsContext
0.00
In forecastVia Att/DefContext
In forecast: possession adjusts the LOAD90 forecast directly. Via Att/Def: goals, xG and shots on target feed the attack and defence ratings. Context: describes the style, no correction of its own.
Recent performance last 5 · schedule
Parma
Rest13.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d1all competitions
Travel0 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Fiorentina
Rest5.8 dayssince last match
Matches / 14d2all competitions
Travel135 km0 km in 14d
Schedule load0%Low
Expected points come from each pre-match EloLambda forecast (3 × win chance + draw chance). Explains recent results; in our tests recent form did not add predictive value on top of the model. Rest, travel and schedule load are context; only High Congestion (4+ matches in 14 days) changes the forecast. Full schedule below.
Full schedule & recovery
| Parma |
Fiorentina |
|
|---|---|---|
| Schedule loaddescriptive index, context | Low · 0 | Low · 0 |
| High congestion4+ matches in 14 days, in the forecast | No | No |
| Rest dayssince last match | 13.8Serie A 2025-2026, 13 Dec | 5.8Serie A 2025-2026, 21 Dec |
| Travel to venuefrom home stadium | 0 km | 135 km |
| Travel, last 14 daysaway trips, both ways | 0 km | 0 km |
| Matcheslast 7 / 14 / 28 days | 0 / 1 / 3 | 1 / 2 / 4 |
| Next matchdays after this one | 7.1 | 8.1 |
All competitions synced from eScored, including cups and Europe. Distances are straight-line between stadium cities. Only High Congestion changes the forecast; the other rows are context.
Squad & lineups
Parma
Confirmed XI
40E. Corvi(G)
14E. Valeri
5L. Valenti
39A. Circati
27Sascha Britschgi
22O. Sørensen
16L. Keita
10Adrián Bernabé
17J. Ondrejka
9Mateo Pellegrino
7A. Benedyczak
Fiorentina
Confirmed XI
43David de Gea(G)
5M. Pongračić
15P. Comuzzo
2Dodô
26M. Viti
27C. Ndour
44N. Fagioli
8R. Mandragora
65F. Parisi
10A. Guðmundsson
20M. Kean
Last XI is the club's most recent recorded starting lineup, Confirmed XI is the official lineup for this match. We do not publish a predicted lineup. Players in red are reported missing for this match.
Key absences Parma
Scores 0.00 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Fiorentina
Scores -0.01 · concedes +0.03 goals Absences are shown before kick-off
Total impact vs full squads
- Parma+0.4 pp
- Draw-0.4 pp
- Fiorentina+0.0 pp
Home / Away this season
Parma · Home
0.75points per game · 8 home games
- W-D-L
- 1-3-4
- Scored
- 0.75
- Conceded
- 1.38
Fiorentina · Away
0.50points per game · 8 away games
- W-D-L
- 0-4-4
- Scored
- 0.63
- Conceded
- 1.63
Actual results only, not forecast λ. Samples this early in the season are small, so these numbers are not used as a forecast correction.
Common opponents 13 this season
| Opponent | Parma | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| Pisa | W 1–0 A | D 0–0 A |
| Udinese | L 0–2 H | W 5–1 H |
| Verona | W 2–1 A | L 1–2 H |
| AC Milan | D 2–2 H | L 1–2 A |
| Bologna | L 1–3 H | D 2–2 H |
| AS Roma | L 1–2 A | L 1–2 H |
| Como | D 0–0 H | L 1–2 H |
| Genoa | D 0–0 A | D 2–2 A |
| Lecce | L 0–1 H | L 0–1 H |
| Torino | W 2–1 H | D 0–0 A |
| Cagliari | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 A |
| Atalanta | D 1–1 H | L 0–2 A |
| Juventus | L 0–2 A | D 1–1 H |
| Points | 13 of 39 · 1.00 per game | 9 of 39 · 0.69 per game |
League games this season against teams both sides have played. A small, uneven sample: context only.
Head to head last 2 of 2 meetings
0 Parma wins2 draws0 Fiorentina wins
Goals per game0.50 – 0.50
Over 2.50%
Both scored50%
Clean sheets50% · 50%
- 13 Apr 2025Fiorentina0–0Parma
- 17 Aug 2024Parma1–1Fiorentina
All competitions, finished games before this kick-off. Shown as history: in our tests head-to-head added almost nothing on top of the model.
Goals & match trends
| Parma | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.67 | 1.06 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.69 | |
| Match goals | 1.87 | 2.75 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 60% | 81% | |
| Over 2.5 | 33% | 63% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 13% | 31% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 69% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 27% | 13% | |
| Failed to score | 53% | 31% | |
| Games | 15 | 16 |
| Parma | Fiorentina | Forecast | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scored per game | 0.70 | 1.30 | |
| Conceded per game | 1.20 | 1.90 | |
| Match goals | 1.90 | 3.20 | 2.47 |
| Over 1.5 | 50% | 90% | |
| Over 2.5 | 40% | 70% | 45% |
| Over 3.5 | 20% | 40% | |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% | 51% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 0% | |
| Failed to score | 50% | 30% | |
| Games | 10 | 10 |
Actual results: Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. The Forecast column is the LOAD90 model for this match, so you can compare what the teams have done with what the model expects.
Corners & cards
| Parma | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.38 | 4.44 | |
| Corners conceded | 4.92 | 4.44 | |
| Match total | 8.30 | 8.88 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 5/13 | 56% 9/16 | |
| Over 9.5 | 31% 4/13 | 50% 8/16 | |
| Over 10.5 | 31% 4/13 | 25% 4/16 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 1.93 | 2.38 | |
| Opponent cards | 2.07 | 2.25 | |
| Match total | 4.00 | 4.63 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 67% 10/15 | 75% 12/16 | |
| Over 4.5 | 47% 7/15 | 63% 10/16 | |
| Parma | Fiorentina | League | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corners | |||
| Corners won | 3.25 | 5.00 | |
| Corners conceded | 5.75 | 4.20 | |
| Match total | 9.00 | 9.20 | 8.79 |
| Over 8.5 | 38% 3/8 | 70% 7/10 | |
| Over 9.5 | 38% 3/8 | 60% 6/10 | |
| Over 10.5 | 38% 3/8 | 20% 2/10 | |
| Cards | |||
| Cards | 2.10 | 2.70 | |
| Opponent cards | 1.80 | 2.50 | |
| Match total | 3.90 | 5.20 | 4.04 |
| Over 3.5 | 60% 6/10 | 90% 9/10 | |
| Over 4.5 | 50% 5/10 | 80% 8/10 | |
Actual per-match figures; Season is this league season, Last 10 is all competitions. LOAD90 does not forecast corners or cards. Corner and card markets on eScored.
Referee · Marco Guida Italy · 74 matches before this one
Per match, all competitions
Yellow cards4.05league 3.90
Red cards0.12league 0.17
Cards 5+41%league 39%
Fouls24.2league 26.0
Penalties0.38league 0.31
Home wins42%league 40%
Parma2 with this referee
Record0-1-1
Cards · opp.1.5 · 5.0
Pens for · against0 · 0
Reds1
- L4 Nov 24H · Genoa0–12
- D21 Sep 24A · Lecce2–21
Fiorentina5 with this referee
Record3-2-0
Cards · opp.1.8 · 1.8
Pens for · against3 · 1
- D9 Nov 25A · Genoa2–24
- W26 Feb 24H · Lazio2–10
- D17 Apr 23H · Atalanta1–11
- W9 May 22H · AS Roma2–03
- W20 Nov 21H · AC Milan4–31
From eScored match records before this kick-off. "league" is this league season's average; red is notably above it, green below. Cards · opp. is cards shown to the club and to its opponents per match with this referee. Context only: referees are not part of the forecast.
Goal timing
Parma15 games · scored 10 · conceded 18
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
3
2
31-45
2
46-60
2
4
61-75
3
6
76-90
Fiorentina15 games · scored 16 · conceded 25
2
4
0-15
2
4
16-30
2
4
31-45
4
4
46-60
4
5
61-75
2
4
76-90
Parma10 games · scored 7 · conceded 12
1
2
0-15
1
2
16-30
2
1
31-45
46-60
1
4
61-75
2
3
76-90
Fiorentina10 games · scored 13 · conceded 16
1
2
0-15
4
16-30
2
5
31-45
3
4
46-60
3
3
61-75
2
76-90
scored conceded, by 15-minute band (stoppage time counts to the band before it). Only games with a complete goal log.
Scenario lab Beta
Numbers are home · draw · away chances. Pick a scenario to update the forecast at the top of the page.
